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2023年冬季黄土高原一次强降雪过程的形成机制

Formation Mechanism of a Heavy Snowfall Event over the Chinese Loess Plateau in Winter 2023

  • 摘要: 黄土高原是世界上最大的黄土堆积区,也是典型的生态脆弱区。冷季,强降雪是黄土高原的主要气象灾害,对农业生产、交通运输、电力设施均构成严重威胁。本文基于中国气象局的地面站点观测、ECMWF的逐小时ERA5再分析等资料,针对2023年12月10-11日的一次典型黄土高原强降雪事件,开展了天气分析、涡度收支与拉格朗日水汽收支等研究,得到以下主要结论:(i)对流层中层的西风带短波槽是本次降雪事件的最有利天气背景条件,其槽前的暖平流既有助于对流层低层上升运动的维持,又有利于低层的降压过程;(ii)青藏高原东北方的低空切变线上有2个中尺度涡旋(V1、V2)生成并合并(合并为中尺度涡旋V3),V1与V2合并后显著增强了降雪强度,合并后的中尺度涡旋V3是本次强降雪天气中最重要的中尺度天气系统。涡度收支诊断显示,低层辐合相关的垂直伸展项与水平涡度输送项是中尺度涡旋V3初生的第一与第二主导因子;在涡旋V3的发展期和维持期,辐合相关的垂直伸展和垂直涡度输送是涡旋发展与维持的第一与第二主导因子,水平涡度输送也是一个有利因子;在消亡期,因低层辐散增强导致垂直伸展项的作用由正转负,这主导了中尺度涡旋V3的衰减、消亡。(iii)基于后向追踪的拉格朗日水汽收支表明,降雪水汽主要源自本地蒸发(贡献约44.5%);我国东南部及其周边(24.8%)与我国西北部及其周边(17.8%)的水汽贡献分列第二和第三位;而来自于欧洲、北非、阿拉伯半岛、印度半岛等地区的水汽贡献不足2%。本文研究揭示了中尺度涡旋合并通过增强低层辐合及水汽汇聚放大降雪强度的机理,为黄土高原冷季灾害预警及防控提供理论依据。

     

    Abstract: The Loess Plateau is the largest loess deposit region in the world and a typical ecologically fragile area. During the cold season, heavy snowfall is a major meteorological disaster on the Loess Plateau, posing severe threats to agricultural production, transportation, and power facilities. Based on ground station observations from the China Meteorological Administration and hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from ECMWF, this study investigates the heavy snowfall event on the Loess Plateau from December 10 to 11, 2023, through weather analysis, vorticity budget, and Lagrangian moisture budget. The main conclusions are as follows: (i) The short-wave trough in the mid-tropospheric westerlies provided the most favorable synoptic background for this snowfall event. The warm advection ahead of the trough contributed to both the maintenance of ascending motion and the pressure reduction in the lower troposphere. (ii) Two mesoscale vortices (V1 and V2) formed and merged (into mesoscale vortex V3) along a low-level shear line northeast of the Tibetan Plateau. The merger significantly intensified the snowfall, with V3 being the most critical mesoscale system in this event. Vorticity budget analysis revealed that the vertical stretching term associated with low-level convergence and horizontal vorticity advection were the primary and secondary factors, respectively, in the genesis of V3. During its development and maintenance stages, vertical stretching and vertical vorticity advection dominated, while horizontal vorticity advection also played a favorable role. In the decay stage, the vertical stretching term turned negative due to enhanced low-level divergence, leading to the vortex"s dissipation. (iii) Lagrangian moisture budget based on backward tracking indicated that the snowfall moisture primarily originated from local evaporation (contributing ~44.5%), followed by southeastern China and its vicinity (24.8%) and northwestern China and its vicinity (17.8%). Contributions from distant sources (Europe, North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian Peninsula, etc.) were negligible (<2%). This study elucidates the mechanism by which mesoscale vortex mergers amplify snowfall intensity through enhanced low-level convergence and moisture convergence, providing a theoretical basis for cold-season disaster early warning and mitigation on the Loess Plateau.

     

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