Abstract:
Abrupt drought-to-flood transition is a compound hydrometeorological extreme event characterized by abrupt shifts in drought and flood conditions over a short period. Global warming and increased precipitation variability have considerably increased the frequency of such events, posing serious threats to agriculture, ecological environments, and socioeconomic systems. Herein, recent advances in studies on this transition are reviewed, covering identification methods, causal mechanisms, risk assessment, and forecasting techniques. Existing studies on identification methods have incorporated multifactor and multiscale information. Studies on causal mechanisms primarily focus on the impacts of key factors such as atmospheric circulation anomalies and tropical teleconnections. Preliminary progress has been made in risk assessment and forecasting of such transitions. For future studies on the risk identification and forecasting of abrupt drought to flood transitions, the following directions are recommended: investigating the synergistic triggering mechanisms involving ocean–land–atmosphere multisphere coupling processes; developing methods for identifying risk propagation and amplification effects and performing dynamic risk assessment; and advancing multiscale, progressive forecasting techniques that integrate artificial intelligence with dynamic models.