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旱涝急转风险辨识与预报研究进展

Advances in Risk Identification and Forecasting of Abrupt Drought-to-Flood Transition Events

  • 摘要: 旱涝急转是一种在短时间内干旱与洪涝发生急剧转换的水文气象复合极端事件。随着全球变暖以及降水变率增加,旱涝急转事件发生频率显著增加,对农业、生态环境及社会经济造成严重威胁。本文系统综述了近年来旱涝急转研究的主要进展,涵盖识别方法、成因机制、风险评估与预报技术等方面。当前,旱涝急转识别方法研究较为广泛,包含多因子、多尺度等信息;成因机制主要聚焦于大气环流异常及热带遥相关等关键因素对旱涝急转影响;风险评估和预报研究已初步开展。针对旱涝急转的风险辨识与预报,未来研究建议聚焦以下方向:海—陆—气多圈层耦合过程对旱涝急转事件的协同触发机制;旱涝急转风险传递放大效应辨识和动态风险评估方法;结合人工智能和动力模式的旱涝急转多尺度、递进式预报技术。

     

    Abstract: Abrupt drought-to-flood transition is a compound hydrometeorological extreme event characterized by abrupt shifts in drought and flood conditions over a short period. Global warming and increased precipitation variability have considerably increased the frequency of such events, posing serious threats to agriculture, ecological environments, and socioeconomic systems. Herein, recent advances in studies on this transition are reviewed, covering identification methods, causal mechanisms, risk assessment, and forecasting techniques. Existing studies on identification methods have incorporated multifactor and multiscale information. Studies on causal mechanisms primarily focus on the impacts of key factors such as atmospheric circulation anomalies and tropical teleconnections. Preliminary progress has been made in risk assessment and forecasting of such transitions. For future studies on the risk identification and forecasting of abrupt drought to flood transitions, the following directions are recommended: investigating the synergistic triggering mechanisms involving ocean–land–atmosphere multisphere coupling processes; developing methods for identifying risk propagation and amplification effects and performing dynamic risk assessment; and advancing multiscale, progressive forecasting techniques that integrate artificial intelligence with dynamic models.

     

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