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2024年11月西北太平洋极端多台风生成的多尺度驱动研究——基于动力潜在生成指数分解

Multiscale Driving Mechanisms of the Genesis of Rare Extreme Multityphoons over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean in November 2024—Based on the Dynamic Genesis Potential Index Decomposition

  • 摘要: 2024年11月,西北太平洋罕见出现“四台共舞”的极端现象,且台风路径逼近我国沿海区域,致使多地遭遇强阵风侵袭与持续性强降水。为揭示该极端过程的形成机制,本研究基于中国气象局台风最佳路径数据集、NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) 大气再分析资料等数据,系统探究了驱动此次极端现象的外强迫因子及其大尺度环流异常特征。结果表明,季节至年际尺度上层海洋热量的持续累积与热带大气季节内振荡(Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO)的次季节信号协同作用,是导致本次极端过程的主要机制。一方面,2024年西太平洋上层海洋温度异常偏高,同时太平洋经向模(Pacific Meridional Mode, PMM)处于显著正位相,二者共同提供暖海温条件,使西太平洋副热带高压偏强、偏西偏北,澳大利亚高压增强,引发强盛越赤道气流,输送充足水汽,并产生气流辐合;另一方面基于台风动力潜在生成指数(Dynamic Genesis Potential Index, DGPI)的定量诊断显示,垂直运动项对台风生成的贡献(57.0%)显著高于垂直风切变(27.3%)和绝对涡度(24.7%),成为此次极端多台风爆发的核心动力因子。进一步分析表明,这种异常上升主要是由次季节尺度上活跃的MJO驱动:在多台风生成前期,MJO对流中心移动至西太平洋地区,激发了低层气旋性环流异常;而在台风集中生成期间,源自印度洋—西太平洋暖池区域的MJO抑制性对流所激发的开尔文波,使季风槽异常维持并向东延伸,二者共同作用从而为台风生成提供持久的气旋性切变与深对流背景,最终导致11月“四台共舞”的罕见现象。

     

    Abstract: In November 2024, a rare extreme phenomenon of four typhoons coexisting simultaneously occurred over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. As the typhoon tracks approached China’s coastal areas, many regions experienced strong gusts and were threatened by persistent heavy rainfall. To unravel its formation mechanism, this study systematically investigates the external forcing factors driving this rare extreme phenomenon and the characteristics of large-scale circulation anomalies induced by these factors using the best-track typhoon dataset of the China Meteorological Administration and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) atmospheric reanalysis data. Results show that the synergistic effect between the sustained accumulation of upper-ocean heat on seasonal-to-interannual scales and the subseasonal signals of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was the main mechanism responsible for this extreme phenomenon. On the one hand, throughout 2024, the upper-ocean temperature over the western Pacific was abnormally high, and the Pacific Meridional Mode was in a positive phase. These two factors led to a stronger intensity and a westward–northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high as well as an intensified Australian high. This anomaly pattern further induced strong cross-equatorial flows, transporting abundant moisture and convergent air currents. On the other hand, a quantitative diagnosis based on the Dynamic Genesis Potential Index (DGPI) indicates that the contribution of the vertical motion term (55.0%) was considerably higher than that of wind shear (27.3%) and absolute vorticity (24.7%), making it the core dynamic factor dominating the genesis of these rare extreme multityphoons. Further analysis indicated that this anomalous ascent was primarily driven by the active MJO on the subseasonal scale. MJO-induced Kelvin waves and their associated circulation anomalies unusually maintained and extended the monsoon trough eastward, providing a large-scale, persistent background of cyclonic shear and deep convection conducive to typhoon genesis, ultimately leading to the rare extreme phenomenon of four concurrent typhoons of “four typhoons coexisting”.

     

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