Abstract:
This study employs a three-dimensional cold cloud seeding model integrated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical model to investigate the artificial precipitation enhancement potential and effects in stratiform cloud systems across China"s arid and semi-arid regions. New seeding criteria was developed, categorizing potential into three levels: level 1 (weak), level 2 (medium), and level 3 (strong). Through extensive numerical simulation experiments, the optimal seeding conditions for level 3 potential areas were quantitatively determined, characterized by precipitation intensity ranging from 0.1 to 20 mm h?1, vertical velocity exceeding 0.01 m s?1, temperature between ?12 and ?5 ℃, and cloud water content greater than 0.2 g kg?1. The research reveals that supercooled water predominantly distributes within the 0 to ?12 ℃ temperature range, with the ?5 to ?12 ℃ interval identified as the optimal seeding temperature window due to the exceptional stability of stratiform cloud systems in this regime. The moderate supercooled water content coupled with weak vertical disturbances creates an ideal environment for ice crystal growth through desublimation processes. Numerical simulations demonstrate that summer stratiform cloud seeding significantly alters the spatial distribution of various hydrometeors while inducing pronounced responses in both thermal and dynamic fields of the seeded region. In contrast, winter stratiform cloud seeding for snowfall exhibits relatively weaker impacts on cloud microphysical processes and dynamic fields. However, even under weak natural precipitation conditions, discernible seeding line features can still be clearly identified. Prior to precipitation enhancement operations, critical macro- and microphysical characteristics of target cloud systems can be obtained through model forecasting. By applying the seeding criteria established in this study, optimal operational strategies including the most favorable seeding areas and timing can be precisely predicted and formulated, thereby providing crucial scientific guidance for the effective implementation of artificial rain and snow enhancement operations.