高级检索

基于对流尺度集合预报的夏季强对流极端预报指数研究

Research on the Extreme Forecast Index for Summer Severe Convection Based on Convection-allowing Ensemble Forecast System

  • 摘要: 提高强对流业务预报能力对国家防灾减灾具有重大意义。本文基于中国气象局3 km分辨率有限区域数值预报系统和对流尺度集合预报系统,采用多种时空扩展方案,构建了对流有效位能(Convective Available Potential Energy, CAPE)、0–6 km垂直风切变(0–6 km vertical wind SHeaR, SHR6)、整层可降水量(Precipitable WATer, PWAT)和复合参数(Composite Parameter, CP)四个强对流物理量的八种模式气候数据集,在此基础上建立了上述四个物理量的极端预报指数(Extreme Forecast Index,EFI)产品,并采用强对流观测资料对其预报效果进行了统计检验和个例检验,以TS评分(Threat Score)最高为标准并综合考虑其它评分函数表现,确定了最优模式气候构建方案、对不同类型强对流预报效果最好的物理量及其发布强对流预警信号的EFI阈值。结果表明,模式气候态分布合理,且基于1° × 1°空间范围、前后各30天时间范围的逐月模式气候方案的EFI的预报效果最优。CAPE、PWAT和CP对强对流具有较好的预报效果,SHR6预报效果较差,对短时强降水(雷暴大风)来说,PWAT(CAPE和CP)的预报效果最优。强对流EFI产品对强对流发生频次有较好的指示意义,但对强度的指示作用很有限。个例检验结果表明,CAPE、PWAT和CP可提前给出强对流预警信号,不过在部分地区存在空报和漏报。本研究为建立中国区域对流尺度的强对流物理量模式气候数据集以及强对流EFI产品提供了基础,具备业务化应用潜力。

     

    Abstract: Enhancing the operational forecast ability for severe convection is of great significance to national disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the 3 km China Meteorological Administration limited-area numerical prediction system and convection-allowing ensemble prediction system, this study constructed eight model climate datasets for four severe convective physical parameters—convective available potential energy (Convective Available Potential Energy, CAPE), 0–6 km vertical wind shear (0-6 km vertical wind SHeaR, SHR6), precipitable water (Precipitable WATer, PWAT), and a composite parameter (Composite Parameter, CP)—using multiple spatiotemporal extension schemes. On this basis, Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) products for the above four parameters were developed. Both statistical and case-based verification of the EFI forecasts were performed using severe convection observations, and the optimal model climate construction scheme, the most effective physical parameters for forecasting different types of severe convection, and the corresponding EFI thresholds for issuing severe convection warning signals were determined, with the threat score as the criterion and taking into account the performance of other scores at the same time. Results showed that the model climate distributions were reasonable, and the EFI products based on the monthly model climate scheme with a 1° × 1° spatial range and a ± 30-day temporal window performed the best. CAPE, PWAT, and CP demonstrated relatively good forecast performance for severe convection, whereas SHR6 performed poorly. PWAT (CAPE and CP) showed the best skill in forecasting short-duration heavy rainfall (thunderstorm high winds). The severe convection EFI products provided useful indications of the occurrence frequency of severe convection but very limited insight into its intensity. Case study indicated that CAPE, PWAT, and CP were able to provide early warning signals for severe convection, though false alarms and missing events existed in some regions. This study provided foundation for establishing convective-scale model climate datasets of severe convective parameters and EFI products for extreme severe convection in China, showing potential for operational application.

     

/

返回文章
返回