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东北冷涡不同象限环境下中国中东部地区极端短时强降水的观测特征和形成条件研究

The Observation characteristics and formation conditions of extreme short-duration heavy precipitation in central and eastern of China in different quadrants of the Northeast China Cold Vortex

  • 摘要: 东北冷涡是造成中国中东部极端短时强降水(简称ESDHR)的主要天气系统。东北冷涡不同象限环境条件存在差异且都会发生ESDHR,所以东北冷涡背景下ESDHR的预报难度更大。本文利用8年中国中东部32417个自动气象站和ERA5再分析资料,判识出1903个与东北冷涡相关的ESDHR样本。根据每个ESDHR与相应东北冷涡中心(简称CVC)的位置,将其分为不同象限的ESDHR,统计不同象限ESDHR的观测特征和环境条件。结果表明:不同象限ESDHR占比从大到小依次为东南、西南、东北和西北象限。ESDHR集中出现在大兴安岭、燕山和太行山脉以东的平原地区,辽宁是ESDHR出现次数最多的省份;除浙江外,其他省份均东南象限ESDHR出现次数最多。西南和东北象限ESDHR更频繁出现在8月,所有象限ESDHR日变化均具有夜间峰值的特征。东北冷涡ESDHR总体发生在水汽偏干、强静力不稳定、低层辐合抬升和中等强度0—6 km风矢量差的环境中。以CVC为原点、东北冷涡半径(rCV)为单位距离建立新坐标系合成所有ESDHR样本,还可以发现:随着与CVC距离和方位角的增加,ESDHR占比总体上存在先增加后减小的特征,合计53.4%的ESDHR出现在距离CVC约1.5—2.2个rCV、与正北夹角为120—210°的区域。这是因为此区域与冷涡底部切变线形成的较强辐合区对应,同时具备充沛水汽和中等强度0—6 km风矢量差等有利条件。另外西南象限ESDHR发生时需要大气具备强静力不稳定和中层较强干空气;东北象限ESDHR发生时需要低层存在更强的辐合抬升条件。以上总结的东北冷涡不同象限ESDHR的观测特征和环境条件,可为提高ESDHR的预报能力提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The Northeast China Cold Vortex is one of the main synoptic-scale system causing extreme short-duration heavy precipitation in the central and eastern parts of China. Environmental conditions are known to be distinctly different over the four quadrants of NCCV, rendering prediction of the SDHR related to NCCV more challenging. Based on 8-yr hourly rainfall observations from 32,417 automatic weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, 1,903 SDHR events were identified and divided into four quadrant groups according to their relative position to the center of the NCCV (CVC). The observation characteristic and environmental conditions of ESDHRs in different quadrants of NCCV were analyzed in this paper. The results show that the frequencies of SDHR in the different quadrants are, in descending order, as follows: southeast, southwest, northeast and northwest. These events are most concentrated in the plains east of the Greater Khingan, Yanshan and Taihang mountain ranges, extending as far south as northern Zhejiang. Liaoning Province experiences the highest frequency of ESDHRs. In most provinces outside of Zhejiang, the southeast quadrant sees the highest occurrence of ESDHRs. ESDHRs in the southwest and northeast quadrants occur frequently in August. The diurnal variation of ESDHRs in all quadrants is characterized by a peak at night. The SDHR related to NCCV generally occur in an environment with relatively dry water vapor, strong static instability, low-level convergence and uplift, and moderate intensity 0–6-km wind vector difference. All ESDHR samples are analyzed by establishing a new coordinate system with CVC as the origin and the radius of the northeast cold vortex (rCV) as the unit distance. The results show that the proportion of ESDHRs first increases and then decreases with the increase of the distance from CVC and azimuth angle. Up to 53.4% of ESDHRs occur in the area about 1.7 to 2.2 rCV away from CVC and at an angle of 120—210°. This area corresponds to the strong convergence zone formed by the shear line at the bottom of NCCV, which has favorable conditions such as abundant water vapor and moderate intensity 0-6 km wind vector difference. In addition, the necessary conditions for ESDHRs in the southwest quadrant are strong static instability and strong dry air in the middle layer, and the necessary conditions for ESDHRs in the northeast quadrant are stronger low-level convergence and uplift. The insights gained from this study on the ESDHR in different quadrants of NCCV can serve as valuable references for enhancing the forecasting accuracy of these intense precipitation events.

     

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