高级检索

东北冷涡极端短时强降水分布与环境特征的统计研究

Statistical Analysis of the Distribution and Environmental Characteristics of Extreme Short-Duration Heavy Precipitation of the Northeast China Cold Vortex

  • 摘要: 为提高东北冷涡背景下极端短时强降水(小时降水量≥50 mm h−1,简称ESDHR)的分析和预报能力,需要统计这类ESDHR的分布和环境特征。本文利用2017~2024年8年18777个自动气象站和ERA5再分析资料,判识出1903个与东北冷涡相关的ESDHR样本。根据每个ESDHR与相对东北冷涡中心(简称CVC)的位置,将其分为不同象限的ESDHR,统计不同象限ESDHR的观测特征和环境条件。结果表明:不同象限ESDHR占比从大到小依次为东南、西南、东北和西北象限。东北冷涡ESDHR集中出现在大兴安岭、燕山和太行山脉以东的平原地区。辽宁是东北冷涡ESDHR出现次数最多的省份,也是东北冷涡ESDHR占相应省份ESDHR百分比最高的省份。不同象限ESDHR最频繁出现在8月,日变化均具有夜间峰值的特征。东北冷涡ESDHR总体发生在强静力不稳定、低层辐合抬升和中等强度0~6 km风矢量差的环境中。以CVC为原点、东北冷涡半径(rCV)为单位距离建立新坐标系合成所有ESDHR样本,还可以发现:53.4%的ESDHR出现在距离CVC约1.5~2.2个rCV、与正北夹角为120°~210°的区域。这是因为此区域存在明显的前倾槽的特征,与冷涡底部切变线形成的较强辐合区对应,同时具备充沛水汽和中等强度0~6 km风矢量差等有利条件。另外西南象限ESDHR发生时需要大气具备强静力不稳定和中层较强干空气;东北象限ESDHR发生时需要低层存在更强的辐合抬升条件。以上总结的东北冷涡不同象限ESDHR的观测特征和环境条件,可为提高ESDHR的预报能力提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To improve the analysis and forecast ability of extreme short-duration heavy rain (ESDHR; hourly precipitation ≥50 mm h−1) against the background of the Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV), it is necessary to study the distribution and environmental characteristics of ESDHR against this backdrop. Based on 8-year hourly rainfall observations from 18777 automatic weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, 1903 ESDHR events were identified. They were grouped into four quadrants according to their positions relative to the NCCV center (CVC). The observation characteristics and environmental conditions of ESDHR in different NCCV quadrants were analyzed in this study. The results showed that the ESDHR frequencies decrease in the following order of quadrants: southeast, southwest, northeast, and northwest. These events are most concentrated in the eastern plains of the Greater Khingan, Yanshan, and Taihang mountain ranges. Liaoning Province experiences the highest frequency of ESDHR. This province experiences not only the highest frequency of ESDHR occurrence related to NCCV but also the highest percentage of ESDHR related to NCCV. Over the entire region, ESDHR occurs most frequently in August. The diurnal variation of ESDHR in all quadrants is characterized by a peak at night. The ESDHR related to NCCV occurs in an environment with strong static instability, low-level convergence and uplift, and a moderate intensity 0–6 km wind vector difference. All ESDHR samples were analyzed by establishing a new coordinate system with CVC as the origin and the NCCV radius (rCV) as the unit distance. The results showed that up to 53.4% of ESDHR events occurred in the area approximately 1.7–2.2 rCV away from the CVC and at an angle of 120°–210°. This region corresponds to the forward-tilted trough, the strong convergence zone formed by the shear line at the bottom of the NCCV. This region has conditions conducive to ESDHR events, such as abundant water vapor and a moderate 0–6 km wind vector difference. The prerequisites for ESDHR in the southwest quadrant are strong static instability and strong dry air in the middle layer, and those for ESDHR in the northeast quadrant are stronger low-level convergence and uplift. The insights gained from this study on the ESDHR in different quadrants of NCCV can serve as valuable references for enhancing the forecasting accuracy of these intense precipitation events.

     

/

返回文章
返回