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近60年北半球冬季极地环流的年代际变化特征

Interdecadal Variations in the Northern Hemispheric Polar Cell during Winter over the Past 60 Years

  • 摘要: 极地环流强度和中心位置的变化对中高纬天气气候系统演变具有重要影响,认识其年代际演变并探索其成因具有重要意义。本文主要利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA5再分析资料,基于经向质量流函数和局地质量流函数,重点分析了1959~2022年冬季北半球极地环流(Northern Polar Cell in Winter,NPCW)的长期变化特征及可能机制。结果表明,NPCW具有显著的年代际变化特征,其强度和中心位置均在1987年和1997年左右发生年代际转折,总体呈现“偏强偏南—偏弱偏北—偏强偏南”的年代际变化规律。研究发现,冬季北半球准静止行星波的年代际变化是主导上述现象的关键。相比于1976~1986年,1987~1997年冬季北半球准静止行星波的振幅在高纬地区增强,在40°N~50°N减弱,通过调整对流层低层的气压系统使北大西洋中高纬地区出现南风异常,削弱了NPCW的强度。同期行星波沿极地波导向平流层的传播减弱,使得高纬度平流层下层E-P(Eliassen-Palm)通量辐合变弱,根据波—流相互作用,这导致绕极西风增强、北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, AO)转为正位相和极涡增强。此时,北极对流层异常冷却而中纬度异常增暖,经向温度梯度增加,使得北大西洋和北太平洋中高纬度地区涡旋活动增强,引起NPCW上升支北移,从而改变环流的中心位置。1998~2008年冬季北半球准静止行星波活动相反,导致对流层低层出现北风异常,经向温度梯度减弱,NPCW相较于上一时期增强且南移。

     

    Abstract: Changes in the intensity and central location of the polar cell strongly influence the evolution of mid-high latitude weather and climate systems, making it important to understand their interdecadal variations and underlying causes. This study investigates the long-term variation characteristics and possible mechanisms of the NPCW (northern polar cell in winter) during 1959–2022. The analysis is based on the meridional and regional mass stream functions derived from ERA5 reanalysis data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results reveal pronounced interdecadal variability in the NPCW. Both its intensity and central location shifted around 1987 and 1997, and the NPCW generally follows a pattern of “strong and southward–weak and northward–strong and southward.” Interdecadal changes in quasi-stationary planetary wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere winter were the key factor dominating these phenomena. The amplitude of the quasi-stationary planetary wave in the Northern Hemisphere winter increased at high latitudes but decreased around 40°N–50°N during 1987–1997, compared with that during 1976–1986. This pattern altered lower-tropospheric pressure systems, inducing southerly wind anomalies over the mid-high latitude North Atlantic, which weakened NPCW intensity. Concurrently, the upward propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves into the stratosphere over high latitudes along the polar waveguide was reduced, decreasing the convergence of Eliassen-Palm (E-P) fluxes in the lower stratosphere over high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the polar front jet was enhanced through planetary wave-mean flow interaction. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) then shifted to a positive phase, and the polar vortex strengthened. Meanwhile, anomalous cooling in the Arctic troposphere coupled with anomalous warming in the mid-latitudes increased the mean meridional temperature gradient. This enhanced gradient promoted eddy activity over the mid-high latitudes of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, driving a poleward shift of the NPCW’s ascending branch and thus altering the circulation’s central location. Conversely, during 1998–2008, opposite anomalies in quasi-stationary planetary wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere winter led to northerly wind anomalies in the lower troposphere and a weakened mean meridional temperature gradient, causing the NPCW to strengthen and shift southward compared with the previous period.

     

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