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2025年夏季西太副高异常北跳的环流机制及其对海河流域汛期影响

Circulation Mechanisms behind the Anomalous Northward Shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in Summer 2025 and Its Impact on the Flood Season in the Haihe River Basin

  • 摘要: 西太平洋副热带高压作为影响我国夏季降水分布的关键环流系统,其2025年六月的异常扩张面积创历史新高,导致海河流域主汛期较往年提前约13天,并发生数次强降水过程。本研究综合利用1950–2025年ERA5再分析数据和中国气象局台站降水观测数据,系统分析了2025年西太副高异常北移的原因,及其对海河流域气候变化的影响。结果表明,西太副高面积指数呈现出0.02/年的长期增大趋势,2025年达到0.32的历史极值,较气候平均值偏高80%;强度指数自2015年以来持续维持在较高水平,2025年达到6.76。本次西太副高异常北跳的主要原因是25°-50°N海温正异常,该区域通过热力强迫作用导致西太平洋中纬度上升气流向北移动约10个纬度,进而引发30-40°N的上升气流显著减弱,副热带下沉气流控制区域向北偏移。这种环流异常使得海河流域水汽通量相较于气候态增加14%,并引发四次强降水事件。

     

    Abstract: The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), as a pivotal atmospheric circulation system affecting summer precipitation distribution in China, exhibited unprecedented spatial expansion in June 2025. This anomalous development resulted in the flood season onset in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) occurring approximately 13 days earlier than the climatological mean, accompanied by multiple heavy precipitation events. This study systematically investigates the underlying mechanisms driving the anomalous northward displacement of the WPSH in 2025 and its climatic impacts on the HRB, utilizing integrated ERA5 reanalysis data (1950-2025) and in-situ precipitation observations from China Meteorological Administration stations. The results reveal a persistent increasing trend (0.02/a) in the WPSH area index, which attained a historical maximum of 0.32 in 2025 representing an 80% deviation above the climatological mean. Concurrently, the intensity index has maintained elevated values since 2015, peaking at 6.76 in 2025. Diagnostic analyses demonstrate that the primary driver of this anomalous northward shift was the pronounced sea surface temperature anomaly within 25°-50°N latitudes. Through thermodynamical forcing mechanisms, this oceanic anomaly induced approximately 10° latitudinal northward displacement of t ascending motion in the mid-latitude western Pacific, consequently leading to markedly weakened ascending motions between 30°–40°N and triggering northward migration of the subtropical descending zone. These circulation anomalies enhanced water vapor transport by 14% relative to climatological norms across the HRB, directly contributing to four documented heavy precipitation events.

     

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