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2024年6~7月黄淮地区旱涝急转事件成因及其预测能力评估

The Cause of the Drought-Flooding Sudden Transition Event in the Huang-Huai Region from June to July 2024 and Its Prediction Capability Assessment

  • 摘要: 2024年6~7月黄淮地区发生极端旱涝急转事件,对社会经济造成严重影响。本文基于站点观测、再分析以及模式预测数据,系统分析了此次旱涝急转事件的特征、成因及其预测能力评估等问题。结果表明:(1)2024年6~7月黄淮地区表现出前期旱灾影响范围大、旱涝急转异常迅猛、后期降水过程频繁的特点。6月降水较常年偏少38.8%,而7月降水急速转为偏多106.7%,6~7月的短周期旱涝急转指数位列1961年以来旱转涝事件历史第3位。(2)6月,500 hPa中高纬环流表现为“西高东低”型,乌山阻塞偏强,东北冷涡活跃,黄淮地区受脊前西北气流控制,低层水汽通道多源于陆地,不利于降水发生。(3)7月,500 hPa中高纬环流经向度加大,西太副高北抬,黄淮地区位于副高西北侧边缘。同时,对流层高层和低层的环流系统均表现出与副高北抬和加强相对应的特征。黄淮地区处于高空西风急流带南侧和南亚高压脊线北侧之间的强高空辐散区,上升运动发展加强;低层西南气流加强北进,水汽通道和水汽源地发生显著变化,黄淮地区水汽输送明显增强,高低空环流配置为7月降水异常偏多提供了有利的水汽和动力条件。2024年黄淮地区旱涝急转环流具有典型年的特征。北半球夏季季节内振荡是此次旱涝急转事件的重要热带低频信号,其中西北太平洋30~90天振荡可能起到主导作用。(4)评估中国气象局第三代气候预测系统CMA-CPSv3对近10年6~7月西太副高次季节预测能力显示,模式对副高脊线异常的预报技巧最好,面积和强度次之,西伸脊点预测仍有很大的改进空间。然而模式对旱涝急转年提前1~3候副高脊线的预测能力偏低,导致模式对雨带进程的预测能力有限。

     

    Abstract: During June-July 2024, an extreme abrupt drought-flood alternation event occurred over the Huang-Huai Valley (HHV), causing serious impacts on the social economy. In this paper, the characteristics and mechanisms and its corresponding prediction capability assessment of this extreme event over the HHV are investigated using station observation data, reanalysis data, hindcast and real-time forecast data. Results demonstrate the following points. (1) The precipitation over the HHV during June-July 2024 showed remarkable and distinct features. It involved a wide range of drought, an incredibly rapid transformation between drought and flood, and frequent rainstorm. The precipitation in June was less than 38.8%. However, the precipitation in July suddenly turned out to be 106.7% more than that in the same period. The abrupt short-cycle drought-flood alternation index over the HHV during June-July 2024 was the third highest of the drought-to-flood events since 1961. (2) A circulation pattern in June with low pressure in the east and high pressure in the west was situated in the mid-high latitudes over Eurasia, accompanied by stronger Ural Blocking High and more frequency of Cold Vortex over Northeast China. The water vapor passages in HHV controlled by dry flow coming from southwest are mainly located in Eurasia, which makes against the precipitation occurring in this region. (3) In July, the 500 hPa in the mid-high latitudes over Eurasia showed stronger the meridional flow. The HHV was located in the northwest of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) with northward shift of the WPSH. Meanwhile, the upper-level and low-level circulation systems strengthened and shifted significantly northward corresponding with the WPSH. The HHV was located in a strong upper-level divergent area between the southern of the upper-level westerly jet and the northern of the ridge line of the South Asian high, further strengthening the development of the upward motion. The southwest monsoon transport enhanced and advanced northward, causing significant changes in the water vapor channel and the water vapor source. The HHV was located in a distinct water vapor flux convergence area. The upper-level and lower-level circulations configuration provided favorable thermodynamic and moisture conditions for the excessive precipitation in July. The circulation of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the HHV in 2024 showed the characteristics of typical years. The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) is a key tropical low-frequency driver of the abrupt drought-flood alternation event during June-July 2024 , and the 30-90-day signal favors the northward shift of the WPSH. (4) The evaluation of the subseasonal prediction capability of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) from June to July in the recent 10 years of model shows that the CMA-CPSv3 model (China Meteorological Administration Climate Prediction System version 3) has the best forecast skill for the ridge line of the WPSH, followed by the area and intensity, while the prediction of the westward extension ridge point still has much room for improvement. Further evaluation reveals that the prediction capability of the WPSH ridge line for drought-flood abrupt alternation event years is generally lower than the normal years with leadtime of 1 to 3 pentads, indicating that the model has limited prediction capability for the rain-band progression.

     

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