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基于机器学习的激光云高仪和ERA5数据融合及天山山区云底高度特征研究

Machine Learning-Based Data Fusion of Laser Ceilometer and ERA5 for Cloud Base Height Characteristics in Tianshan Mountains

  • 摘要: 云底高度(cloud base height,CBH)是地表辐射和航空气象领域研究的关键参数,高时空分辨率的准确CBH对研究云辐射效应、提高数值天气预报准确性有重要意义。本文利用2022-2023年西天山伊犁河谷新源站和伊宁站激光云高仪观测CBH数据,对ERA5再分析资料CBH进行评估,并且利用随机森林法对ERA5数据产品进行了订正,以研究1960~2020年天山山区CBH的时空分布及变化趋势特征。结果表明:(1)激光云高仪观测与ERA5 CBH相关系数新源站为0.547、伊宁站为0.658。这两种资料之间存在一定偏差,偏差集中在-2500~1500 m。(2)两种资料的CBH均呈现白天低、夜间高的单峰日变化特征,以及夏季6~8月份高、3月和12月低的月变化特征,且ERA5与观测值存在对低云的高估、中云的低估问题。CBH垂直空间分布也存在差异,在0~1000 m内ERA5比激光云高仪频率高约0.02~6.9%,在2000~4500 m内激光云高仪比ERA5高约0.06~1.6%。(3)激光云高仪与订正后ERA5 CBH的相关系数由0.609提升至0.754。春、夏、秋季CBH分布与海拔密切相关,其随海拔高度升高而降低,而冬季CBH分布与海拔关系较弱,高值区位于塔里木盆地边缘,低值区位于准噶尔盆地西南部以及海拔3500 m以上天山山区。除冬季外,低云高值区主要位于海拔1500 m以上天山山区分布,中云高值区位于2500 m以下区域。而冬季低云高值区位于准噶尔盆地西南部及海拔1500 m以上天山山区,中云除准噶尔盆地西南部以外的区域均较高。高云高值区位于为1500m以下区域,全年较少,约150~750 h·a-1。

     

    Abstract: Cloud base height (CBH) is a critical parameter in surface radiation and aviation meteorology research. Accurate CBH data with high spatiotemporal resolution is essential for studying cloud radiative effects and improving the accuracy of numerical weather prediction. This study utilizes CBH observations from laser ceilometers at Xinyuan and Yining stations in the Ili River Valley of the western Tianshan Mountains during 2022-2023 to evaluate the ERA5 reanalysis CBH data. Additionally, the Random Forest method is employed to correct the ERA5 dataset. Based on the refined data, the spatial-temporal distribution and trend characteristics of CBH over the Tianshan Mountains from 1960 to 2020 are investigated.The results indicated that the following. (1) The correlation coefficients between laser ceilometer observations and ERA5 CBH are 0.547 at Xinyuan Station and 0.658 at Yining Station. A systematic bias exists between the two datasets, primarily ranging from??2500 to 1500 m. (2) Both datasets consistently demonstrate a unimodal diurnal variation in CBH characterized by lower daytime values and higher nighttime values, along with distinct seasonal patterns showing elevated CBH during summer (June~August) and reduced values in March and December. Comparative analysis reveals systematic biases in ERA5 data, with consistent overestimation of low-level clouds and underestimation of mid-level clouds relative to ground-based ceilometer observations. Vertical distribution analysis further identifies significant discrepancies: ERA5 exhibits a 0.02~6.9% higher frequency of CBH occurrences within the 0~1000 m altitude range compared to ceilometer measurements, while the opposite pattern emerges at higher elevations (2000~4500 m) where ceilometer observations show 0.06~1.6% greater frequency than ERA5 estimates. (3) The correlation coefficient between laser ceilometer observations and corrected ERA5 CBH significantly improved from 0.609 to 0.754. Seasonal analysis reveals that CBH displays a strong negative correlation with elevation during spring, summer, and autumn, progressively decreasing with increasing altitude, while this altitude dependence weakens in winter. Spatially, high CBH values in winter are predominantly distributed along the periphery of the Tarim Basin, with low-value areas concentrated in the southwestern Junggar Basin and high-altitude regions of the Tianshan Mountains above 3500 m. For low clouds (excluding winter), high-frequency zones are mainly located in the Tianshan Mountains above 1500 m, whereas mid-level clouds predominantly occur below 2500 m. Winter exhibits distinct patterns: low clouds show enhanced frequencies in both the southwestern Junggar Basin and Tianshan Mountains above 1500 m, while mid-level clouds maintain widespread high frequencies across all regions except the southwestern Junggar Basin. High clouds remain relatively rare throughout the year (approximately 150~750h·a-1), primarily appearing below 1500 m altitude. (4) The EOF modes exhibit pronounced interannual and decadal variability, with the first mode showing an out-of-phase spatial pattern between regions below and above 2,500 m elevation, while the second mode demonstrates an opposite variation between the southwestern Junggar Basin and the combined Tianshan Mountains-Tarim Basin periphery. Over the past six decades, the central Tianshan Mountains and southwestern Junggar Basin have experienced predominantly significant increases in CBH, whereas other regions showed no substantial changes. Notably, at elevations exceeding 2,500 m in the Tianshan Mountains, the occurrence frequency of low clouds has decreased significantly, mid-level clouds have increased significantly, and high clouds have remained essentially stable.

     

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