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广东旱涝急转特征及其与大气环流和海温异常的关系

Characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Guangdong and its relationships with anomalies of atmospheric

  • 摘要: 利用1961~2024年广东86个国家级气象观测站逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NOAA的ERSSTv5海温和逐月向外长波辐射资料(OLR)资料,首先计算广东短周期(SDFAI)旱涝急转指数,分析近64年广东旱涝急转的变化特征。然后采用合成和相关分析方法,以近64年广东旱涝急转发生概率最高、最强的3~4月为代表,分析了广东旱涝急转指数异常的同期大气环流和前期海温异常特征。结果表明,近64年广东短周期相邻两月发生旱涝急转的概率和强度最大出现在3~4月,最小出现在1~2月。近64年广东3~4月旱涝急转指数具有明显的年际和年代际变化,指数最大出现在1973(3.43),最小出现在1968年(-2.49),约有1/4的年份在3~4月会发生旱涝急转;近64年该指数以0.15/(10 a)的速率明显下降;在1961~1990年指数偏高,1991~2024年指数偏低。该旱涝急转指数进行去趋势处理后选出近64年广东3~4月旱涝急转高、低指数年,对其环流进行合成,其差异明显。在旱期3月高指数年相对低指数年,对流层高层辐合加强,中层东亚大槽加强,冷空气活动强,低层华南受异常偏北气流控制,地面西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压均明显偏强,广东下沉运动明显,华南上空低层辐散。从孟加拉湾、南海到华南的水汽输送减弱,导致广东在3月降水显著偏少。在涝期4月大气环流特征与3月几乎相反,导致4月降水异常偏多。前期冬季,热带西太平洋海温偏高,南海、海洋性大陆西侧、印度洋北部海温偏低,以及前期秋冬赤道中东太平洋海温偏低,为La Ni?a衰减或持续年,Walker环流加强,菲律宾附近形成异常气旋式环流,华南为异常偏北气流控制,处于下沉运动区,导致3月降水偏少。4月,热带西印度洋海温的上升,有利于阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾的水汽向华南输送,热带西太平洋海温的升高有利于菲律宾以东异常反气旋环流的维持,西太副高加强,而华南为上升气流控制,低层存在冷暖气流的交汇,对流和辐合加强,导致广东4月降水异常偏多,发生旱涝急转。

     

    Abstract: Using daily precipitation data from 86 national meteorological observation stations in Guangdong from 1961 to 2024, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, NOAA"s ERSSTv5 sea surface temperature (SST) data, and monthly outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, the short-term drought-flood abrupt alternation index (SDFAI) for Guangdong was first calculated to analyze the characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Guangdong over the past 64 years. Then, composite and correlation analysis methods were employed to examine the characteristics of concurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies and preceding sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the SDFAI anomalies in Guangdong, focusing on the period from March to April, when the probability and intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation are highest and strongest over the past 64 years. The results show that over the past 64 years, the highest probability and intensity of short-term drought-flood abrupt alternation between two consecutive months in Guangdong occurred in March–April, while the lowest occurred in January–February. The SDFAI for March–April exhibited significant interannual and interdecadal variability over the past 64 years, with the highest value in 1973 (3.43) and the lowest in 1968 (-2.49). Approximately one-quarter of the years experienced drought-flood abrupt alternation during March–April. Over the past 64 years, the index showed a significant decreasing trend at a rate of 0.15 per decade. The index was relatively high during 1961–1990 and relatively low during 1991–2024.After detrending the SDFAI, high-index years and low-index years for drought-flood abrupt alternation in March–April over the past 64 years were selected. Composite analyses of atmospheric circulation for these two groups revealed significant differences. During the drought period in March in high-index years compared to low-index years, convergence in the upper troposphere strengthened, the East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere intensified, cold air activity was stronger, and anomalous northerly flows prevailed over South China in the lower troposphere. At the surface, both the Siberian High and the Aleutian Low were significantly stronger. Subsidence motion was pronounced over Guangdong, and low-level divergence dominated over South China. Moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea to South China weakened, resulting in significantly reduced precipitation in Guangdong in March. During the flood period in April, the characteristics of atmospheric circulation were almost opposite to those in March, leading to anomalously high precipitation in Apr.In the preceding winter, higher SSTs in the tropical western Pacific, lower SSTs in the South China Sea, the western side of the Maritime Continent, and the northern Indian Ocean, along with lower SSTs in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific during the preceding autumn and winter (indicating a decaying or persistent La Ni?a event), strengthened the Walker Circulation. An anomalous cyclonic circulation formed near the Philippines, placing South China under the influence of anomalous northerly flows and within a subsidence region, which contributed to reduced precipitation in March. In April, the rise in SSTs in the tropical western Indian Ocean favored moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal to South China. The increase in SST in the tropical western Pacific helped maintain the anomalous anticyclonic circulation east of the Philippines, strengthening the western Pacific subtropical high. South China was under ascending motion, with convergence of cold and warm airflows in the lower troposphere, enhanced convection and convergence, leading to anomalously high precipitation in Guangdong in April and the occurrence of drought-flood abrupt alternation.

     

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