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广东旱涝急转特征及其与大气环流和海温异常的关系

Characteristics of Drought–flood Abrupt Alternation in Guangdong and its Relationships with Anomalies of Atmospheric Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature

  • 摘要: 利用1961~2024年广东86个国家级气象观测站逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NOAA的ERSSTv5海温和逐月向外长波辐射(OLR)资料,首先计算广东短周期旱涝急转指数(SDFAI),分析近64年广东旱涝急转的变化特征。然后采用合成和相关分析方法,以近64年广东旱涝急转发生概率最高、最强的3~4月为代表,分析了广东旱涝急转指数异常的同期大气环流和前期海温异常特征。结果表明,近64年广东短周期相邻两月发生旱涝急转的概率和强度最大出现在3~4月,最小出现在1~2月。近64年广东3~4月旱涝急转指数具有明显的年际和年代际变化,指数最大出现在1973(3.43),最小出现在1968年(−2.49),有26.6%的年份在3~4月会发生旱涝急转;近64年该指数以0.15 (10 a)−1的速率明显下降;在1961~1990年指数偏高,1991~2024年指数偏低。对该旱涝急转指数进行去趋势处理后,选出近64年广东3~4月旱涝急转高、低指数年,分别对其环流进行合成,结果表明二者差异明显。在旱期3月高指数年相对低指数年,对流层高层辐合加强,中层东亚大槽加强,冷空气活动强,低层华南受异常偏北气流控制,地面西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压均明显偏强,广东下沉运动明显,华南上空低层辐散。从孟加拉湾、南海到华南的水汽输送减弱,导致广东3月降水显著偏少。在涝期4月大气环流特征与3月几乎相反,导致4月降水异常偏多。前期冬季,热带西太平洋海温偏高,南海、海洋性大陆西侧、印度洋北部海温偏低,以及前期秋冬赤道中东太平洋海温偏低,为La Niña衰减或持续年,Walker环流加强,菲律宾附近形成异常气旋式环流,华南为异常偏北气流控制,处于下沉运动区,导致广东3月降水偏少。4月,热带西印度洋海温的上升,有利于阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾的水汽向华南输送,热带西太平洋海温的升高有利于菲律宾以东异常反气旋环流的维持,西太副高加强,而华南为上升气流控制,低层存在冷暖气流的交汇,对流和辐合加强,导致广东4月降水异常偏多,发生旱涝急转。

     

    Abstract: Using daily precipitation data from 86 national meteorological observation stations in Guangdong from 1961 to 2024, together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, NOAA ERSSTv5 sea surface temperature (SST) data, and monthly outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, we calculated the short-term drought–flood abrupt alternation index (SDFAI) for Guangdong to analyze the characteristics of drought–flood abrupt alternation over the past 64 years. Composite and correlation analyses were then applied to examine concurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies and preceding SST anomalies associated with SDFAI anomalies in Guangdong. The analysis focused on March–April, the period during which the probability and intensity of drought–flood abrupt alternation were highest over the past 64 years. The results show that, over the past 64 years, the highest probability and intensity of short-term drought–flood abrupt alternation between two consecutive months in Guangdong occurred in March–April, whereas the lowest occurred in January–February. The SDFAI for March–April exhibited significant interannual and interdecadal variability, with the highest value in 1973 (3.43) and the lowest in 1968 (−2.49). In 26.6% of the years, drought–flood abrupt alternation occurred during March–April. The index showed a significant decreasing trend of 0.15 (10 a)−1, with relatively high values during 1961–1990 and relatively low values during 1991–2024. After detrending the SDFAI, high-index and low-index years for drought–flood abrupt alternation in March–April were selected. Composite analyses of atmospheric circulation for these two groups revealed significant differences. During the drought period in March, high-index years (compared with low-index years) exhibited strengthened convergence in the upper troposphere, an intensified East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere, stronger cold air activity, and anomalous northerly flows over South China in the lower troposphere. At the surface, both the Siberian High and the Aleutian Low were significantly stronger. Subsidence was pronounced over Guangdong, and low-level divergence dominated South China. Moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea to South China weakened, resulting in significantly reduced precipitation in Guangdong in March. During the flood period in April, the atmospheric circulation patterns were nearly opposite to those in March, producing anomalously high precipitation. In the preceding winter, higher SSTs occurred in the tropical western Pacific, while lower SSTs were observed in the South China Sea, on the western side of the Maritime Continent, and in the northern Indian Ocean. Lower SSTs in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific during the preceding autumn and winter (indicating a decaying or persistent La Niña event) strengthened the Walker Circulation. An anomalous cyclonic circulation formed near the Philippines, placing South China under the influence of anomalous northerly flows and within a subsidence region, which contributed to reduced precipitation in March. In April, the rise in SSTs in the tropical western Indian Ocean favored moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal to South China. The increase in SSTs in the tropical western Pacific helped maintain the anomalous anticyclonic circulation east of the Philippines, thereby strengthening the western Pacific subtropical high. South China then came under ascending motion, with convergence of cold and warm airflows in the lower troposphere and enhanced convection. This led to anomalously high precipitation in Guangdong in April and the occurrence of drought–flood abrupt alternation.

     

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