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模式物理参数影响东亚冬季风气候态模拟的机制分析:基于CAS-FGOALS-PPE

The Role of Model Physical Parameters in Simulating the East Asian Winter Monsoon Climatology: An Investigation with the CAS-FGOALS-PPE

  • 摘要: 气候模式是研究东亚冬季风(EAWM)形成机理、模拟及预测的重要工具。模式物理过程参数方案中包含大量不确定的参数,是制约当前气候模式对EAWM的准确模拟和预测能力的重要原因之一。为此,本研究基于中国科学院大气物理研究所开发的新一代气候模式CAS-FGOALS-g3开展扰动参数集合试验(CAS-FGOALS-PPE),系统分析了物理参数化过程对EAWM模拟的贡献及其影响机制。结果表明,CAS-FGOALS-PPE能够较好地再现EAWM的主要气候特征,包括西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压、东亚沿岸偏北风、地表温度分布、东亚大槽以及西风急流等关键环流系统。 参数敏感性分析显示,参数扰动可在较大幅度上改变EAWM的模拟强度,是导致EAWM模拟不确定性的重要来源之一。其中,云冰–雪自由转化系数(mg_dcs)、触发质量通量的相对湿度阈值(zmconv_rhcrit)以及深对流降水蒸发效率(zmconv_ke)等参数对模拟结果具有显著影响。深对流过程通过调节冬季北印度洋地区的对流活动,影响中东急流强度,从而对EAWM模拟产生重要影响,该过程主要受zmconv_rhcrit和zmconv_ke参数的控制。其次,欧亚大陆上空的与冰相高云形成相关的微物理过程,通过改变海陆热力差异,影响EAWM的强度,主要受mg_dcs调控。

     

    Abstract: Climate models are a key tool for studying the mechanisms, simulation, and prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The parameterization schemes for physical processes in models contain a large number of uncertain parameters, which constitutes one of the key factors limiting the ability of current climate models to accurately simulate and predict the EAWM. This study systematically investigates the contribution and mechanisms of physical parameterizations in EAWM simulations using a perturbed parameter ensemble (CAS-FGOALS-PPE) based on the new-generation climate model CAS-FGOALS-g3 developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results show that the CAS-FGOALS-PPE can reasonably reproduce the major climatic features of the EAWM, including key systems such as the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, northerly winds along the East Asian coast, surface temperature, East Asian trough, and westerly jet stream. Parameter sensitivity analysis reveals that parameter perturbations can substantially alter the simulated intensity of the EAWM, serving as one of the primary sources of uncertainty in its simulation. Notably, parameters such as the cloud ice-to-snow autoconversion coefficient (mg_dcs), relative humidity threshold for triggering mass flux (zmconv_rhcrit), and deep convective precipitation evaporation efficiency (zmconv_ke) significantly influence the simulation results. Deep convection processes influence the intensity of the Middle East jet stream by regulating convective activities over the northern Indian Ocean during winter, thereby exerting a significant impact on EAWM simulations. This process is governed primarily by the parameters zmconv_rhcrit and zmconv_ke. Second, microphysical processes associated with the formation of ice-phase high clouds over the Eurasian continent affect the intensity of the EAWM by modifying the land-sea thermal contrast, and these processes are regulated primarily by the parameter mg_dcs.

     

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