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初始涡旋和环境场对台风快速增强预报的影响研究

Research on the impact of initial vortex and environmental fields on the rapid intensification forecast of typhoons

  • 摘要: 台风近海快速增强(RI)是当前台风业务预报的难点。本文选取“天鸽”(2017)、“杜苏芮(2017)”、“海高斯(2007)”和“纳沙(2220)”等多个典型南海台风快速增强个例,基于南海台风模式(CMA-TRAMS),将报出(未报出)台风RI的初始场中台风涡旋替换为未报出(报出)RI的涡旋,进行一系列数值敏感试验,分析初始台风涡旋和环境场对台风快速增强预报的影响。结果表明,替换涡旋后的初始场保留了背景场的环境特征,同时较好“继承”增强前、增强起始时、减弱等不同阶段替换涡旋的主要特征,可反映不同阶段涡旋的结构差异。替换涡旋试验表明,替换初始涡旋对台风RI预报没有显著影响,而环境场对台风RI预报有重要影响,并探究相同环境场如何导致不同初始涡旋的相似发展趋势,以及不同环境场如何造成相同初始涡旋的不同发展状况。环境场促使预报初期强烈的热量输送,使涡旋强度、结构很快调整,是试验V4B(采用减弱阶段初始涡旋)台风得以快速增强的重要原因;热量和水汽输送不稳定,及其与垂直风切变未能形成有利的环境配置,是试验C1(控制试验)涡旋未能如V4(采用利于发生RI的环境场)一样快速增强的主要原因。本文的研究工作为模式技术改进提供参考和线索,为提高台风快速增强业务预报水平奠定基础。

     

    Abstract: The rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) has always been a challenge in operational forecasting. This study is based on the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea (CMA-TRAMS) and selects some typical cases of RI TCs, such as "HATO (2017)", "DOKSURI" (2017), "HIGOS" (2007), and "NESAT" (2220), to investigate the impacts of initial vortex and environmental fields on RI forecasts. Vortices in the initial fields with reported (unreported) RI simulations are replaced with vortices in the unreported (reported) RI simulations, and a series of numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted. The results show that the initial fields after vortex replacement retain the environmental characteristics of the background field, while also "inheriting" the main characteristics of different replacing vortices, and reflecting the structural differences of vortices at different stages, such as before RI, at the onset of RI, and during weakening. The results also indicate that replacing the initial vortex has no significant impact on the forecast of TC RIs, while the environmental field has a significant impact on RI forecast of TCs. Furthermore, it is also explored how the same environmental field leads to similar development trends for different initial vortices, and how different environmental fields cause different development for the same initial vortex. The environmental conditions facilitated intense heat transport in the initial stage of forecasting, leading to rapid adjustments in the vortex"s intensity and structure. This was a crucial factor for the RI of the vortex in Experiment V4B (using vortex in weakened phase as initial vortex), which was in the weakening phase. The insufficient heat and water vapor transport, coupled with the failure to form a favorable configuration with vertical wind shear, were the primary reasons why the RI of the vortex in Experiment C1 (the control experiment) did not occur as in Experiment V4 (employing an environment favorable for RI). The results of this study provide clues for improving model capability on RI prediction and lay a foundation for promoting operational forecasting level.

     

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