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华北及周边暴雨和地形谱特征及中尺度模式水平分辨率选取

Spectral characteristics of topography and heavy rainfall over North China and surrounding regions, and horizontal grid-size selection for mesoscale modeling

  • 摘要: 利用2008–2014年中国自动站与CMORPH融合的0.1°×0.1°空间分辨率逐时降水量数据,结合2021年河南“21·7”和2023年华北“23·7”暴雨过程自动站降水监测数据,选取华北及周边地区的8个主要暴雨落区。基于空间分辨率1弧秒的ASTER GDEM Version 3地形高度数据和上述降水数据,利用二维离散余弦变换(2D-DCT)方法,对暴雨落区地形高度场和降水场开展谱分析。结果表明,华北主要暴雨落区地形高度均存在显著各向异性特征,地形谱方差的主导波长主要集中在60–200 km,该尺度下暴雨谱与地形谱表现出较好的一致性,表明特征尺度地形扰动对暴雨发生发展具有关键调制作用,而部分区域则呈现多尺度特征,反映暴雨形成受天气尺度系统与地形强迫的共同影响。基于模式可分辨地形方差的定量评估表明,1 km的水平分辨率可解析华北大部分地区超过90%的地形方差,为暴雨过程模拟与预报中的分辨率选取提供了参考依据。需要指出的是,不同区域的地形特征尺度对分辨率需求存在差异,华北平原地区暴雨对<100 km小尺度地形扰动响应显著,需亚公里分辨率以解析其边界层触发机制;而太行山东麓地区因特征波长较长,较低分辨率(3–9 km)亦可刻画主要地形效应。此外,降水模拟效果除地形因素外,还与初始场精度、物理过程参数化方案等因素密切相关。

     

    Abstract: Using hourly precipitation data with a spatial resolution of 0.1°×0.1° merged from automatic regional stations and CMORPH during 2008–2014, together with station observations from two extreme rainfall events in July 2021 and July 2023, we selected eight major heavy rainfall regions over North China and its surroundings. Based on the 1-arc-second ASTER GDEM Version 3 topographic data and the above precipitation data, the two-dimensional discrete cosine transform (2D-DCT) method was applied to investigate the spectral characteristics of topography and torrential rainfall. The results show that terrain spectra exhibit pronounced anisotropy across all regions. The dominant terrain wavelengths are mainly concentrated in the range of 60–200 km. At this scale, strong coherence is found between terrain and rainfall spectra, indicating that terrain features at these wavelengths play a key role in modulating heavy rainfall. In contrast, some regions display multi-scale characteristics, suggesting a combined influence of synoptic-scale systems and terrain forcing. Based on the fraction of terrain variance resolved by numerical models, a horizontal resolution of 1 km can capture more than 90% of terrain variance over most of North China. This provides a useful reference for selecting model resolution in rainfall simulation and forecasting. However, the optimal resolution still depends on regional terrain characteristic scales. Rainfall over the North China Plain is more sensitive to small-scale terrain (<100 km), and thus requires sub-kilometer resolution. In contrast, in the Taihang Mountain foothill regions, where dominant wavelengths are larger, coarser resolutions (e.g., 3–9 km) can still represent the major terrain effects. In addition, rainfall simulation is influenced not only by terrain forcing, but also by initial conditions and physical parameterization schemes.

     

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