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CMIP6全球气候模式对欧洲冷季极锋急流的模拟能力评估

Assessment of the European Polar Front Jet in the Cold Season Simulated by CMIP6 Multi-models

  • 摘要: 本文基于逐日ERA5再分析资料与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中的历史模拟试验数据,系统评估了20个气候模式对冷季极锋急流(PFJ)气候态分布的模拟能力,并探究了其模拟误差来源。分析结果显示,CMIP6模式多模式集合平均(MME)能够合理再现北半球PFJ的纬向分布特征,模拟的急流平均强度与再分析数据接近。进一步将北半球PFJ划分为欧洲、亚洲、北太平洋、北美和北大西洋五大子区域进行对比分析后发现,CMIP6模式对欧洲地区PFJ经向位置、宽度等关键特征的模拟偏差最大。MME中急流轴位置偏南约3°、南北界位置偏南约4°~7°、经向宽度偏宽3°左右。与再分析数据得到的欧洲地区纬向风的空间分布相比,70%的CMIP6模式空间相关系数小于0.8,75%的模式相对空间标准差大于1.0,所有模式在急流轴及其南侧区域存在纬向西风偏差。根据西风偏差的强弱,在CMIP6模式中挑选出略偏南组和强偏南组进行对比分析,结果表明:强偏南组模式对欧洲PFJ以北的冷空气模拟过强,导致急流轴附近经向温度梯度过大;同时该组模式也过高模拟了欧洲中纬度地区瞬变涡旋的活跃程度及其与平均流的动能输送;以上过程均是欧洲PFJ主体区域内西风偏差的重要来源。本文通过评估CMIP6模式对PFJ气候态特征的模拟性能,指出了多数气候模式对欧洲地区PFJ经向位置、宽度等关键特征存在的偏差及其可能来源,认为优化气候模式对局地温度经向梯度、天气尺度瞬变涡旋活动等关键物理过程的模拟能力将有助于减小其对欧洲地区PFJ的模拟误差。

     

    Abstract: This study evaluates the performance of 20 climate models in simulating the climatological characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere polar front jet (PFJ) during the cold season, using daily ERA5 reanalysis data and the historical simulation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The potential sources of model bias are also examined. We find that the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean (MME) can reasonably reproduce the zonal distribution and strength of the PFJ. Upon examination of model performance in simulating the PFJ over different subregions, i.e., Europe, Asia, North Pacific, North America, and North Atlantic, the CMIP6 models show the largest biases in representing the climatological location and meridional width of PFJ over Europe. Compared with ERA5, the jet axis in MME shifts southward by approximately 3° in latitude, while the northern and southern boundaries shift southward by approximately 4°–7° in latitude, resulting in a widened meridional width of around 3° latitude. Seventy percent of CMIP6 models show the pattern correlation less than 0.8 with the seasonal-mean zonal wind over Europe in ERA5, whilst 75% of CMIP6 models have a spatial relative standard deviation larger than 1.0. A noticeable westerly bias over the southern part of the European PFJ is widely observed in all models. According to the magnitudes of PFJ-related westerly biases, we divide the models into two groups—the slightly southward-biased group (G1) and the strongly southward-biased group (G2). Results show that the G2 models significantly overestimate the cold air north of the European PFJ, leading to a stronger meridional temperature gradient south of the jet axis. Moreover, synoptic-scale transient eddy activity in the midlatitudes is more active in G2 than in G1. Biases in transient eddy activity may result in a stronger eddy kinetic energy transport towards the mean flow. Thus, the European PFJ in the models exhibits a southward shift and stronger westerly winds. By evaluating the simulation performance of CMIP6 models in climatic characteristics of PFJ, this study indicates that the European PFJ biases are likely related to the cold bias north of the PFJ and stronger transient eddy activity in the midlatitudes. According to our results, improving the representation of meridional temperature contrast and transient eddy activity in mid-high latitudes may help reduce the systematic biases of the PFJ over Europe in climate models.

     

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