高级检索

天津1951—2024年基本气候变量均一化日值数据集V2.0研制

Development of the Homogenized Daily Datasets Version 2.0 for Essential Climate Variables in Tianjin Covering 1951-2024

  • 摘要: 基于天津现有均一化数据产品和地面气象观测数据文件(A文件),尽可能详细补充了2012—2024年期间14个地面气象站迁站和仪器变更等元数据信息,采用“经验判别+无参考序列+分位数匹配”方法,研制得到天津1951—2024年基本气候变量均一化日值数据集(V2.0)。结果表明:(1)除海平面气压和降水量以外,其他要素序列均存在统计显著断点(1%显著性水平),其中,最高气温和2分钟平均风速受非均一性影响最为突出,出现断点的台站比例分别达71.4%和85.7%,究其原因二者分别是仪器变更;迁站与仪器变更共同导致;(2)从订正结果来看,仪器变更导致了气温观测值呈现出系统性偏高,日最高气温的平均订正量约为1.2℃;2分钟平均风速整体以正向订正为主,平均订正量约为0.3m/s,但其中的海上站(54646)因旧仪器的过度响应而表现出明显的负向订正;(3)对订正前后的统计特征值分析发现,均一性订正明显地弱化了气候观测序列中的非气候扰动,最高气温的虚假波动与趋势突变得到了有效抑制,而风速序列的长期下降趋势则得到进一步凸显。另外,基于订正后数据统计得到的气候物理风险指数(CPRI)更符合当前和近几十年来极端气候事件频发导致的观测事实。从而,一定程度上能够反映出观测数据的均一化处理在提升区域气候监测可靠性及支撑气候适应性科学评估中具有重要的基础作用。

     

    Abstract: Based on the existing daily homogenized datasets of Tianjin and the surface meteorological observation data A file, the metadata related to the relocation and instrument changes at 14 meteorological stations during the period of 2012 to 2024 were supplemented as detailed as possible, and using the method of combination of empirical decision, without reference series and Quantile-Matching (QM) adjustment, the homogenized daily datasets version 2.0 of essential climate variables in Tianjin covering 1951-2024 was developed. Results indicate that: (1) Except for the elements of sea level pressure and precipitation, the series of the other elements have statistically significant breakpoints (at 1% level). Among them, the maximum temperature and 2-minute wind speed are more obviously affected by non-homogenization factors than the others, which have the stations with breakpoints reaching 71.4% and 85.7%, respectively. The influence reasons for these two elements are mainly instrument changes and the combined effects of relocation and instrument changes; (2) The QM adjustments show that instrument changes have caused systematic overestimation of temperature observation data, and the average adjustment for the daily maximum temperature is approximately 1.2°C. The overall adjustment for 2-minute wind speed is mainly positive, with an average amount of 0.3 m/s, but the offshore station (54646) has a distinct negative adjustment due to the excessive response demonstrated by the old instrument; (3) The analyses of the statistical values before and after adjustment reveal that the non-climatic disturbances in the climate observation series are visibly weakened by QM adjustment. False fluctuations and trend jumps of the maximum temperature have been effectively suppressed, and the long-term downward trend of the 2-minute wind speed has been further highlighted. Additionally, the climate physical risk index (CPRI) based on the adjusted data is more in line with the observed facts caused by the frequent occurrence of extreme climate events in the current and recent decades. Therefore, to some extent, the importance of observation data homogenization in improving the reliability of regional climate monitoring and supporting scientific assessment for climate adaptation can be reflected in this study.

     

/

返回文章
返回