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基于XGBoost算法的高空出流影响西北太平洋台风强度快速变化的对比分析

Comparative Analysis of XGBoost-based Upper-Level Outflow Influencing Rapid Intensity Changes of Typhoons in the Western North Pacific

  • 摘要: 本研究基于Chen and Gray(1985)提出的四种台风高空出流型,利用1979–2022年6–10月西北太平洋台风的多源观测资料,采用极端梯度提升算法(XGBoost)实现出流客观分型,对比了不同出流型下典型台风快速增强(Rapid intensification,RI)与快速减弱(Rapid Weakening,RW)事件的统计特征、大尺度环境条件及台风内部结构差异。 单通道向赤道(Single-channel Outflow equatorward,SE)型频次最高,多见于8–9月;双通道(Dual-channel Outflow,D)型和单通道向极地(Single-channel Outflow poleward,SP)型频次较少但多现于10月,当其出流较强时分别更有利于RI和RW发生。RI事件多集中在台风生成后12–60小时,其中无通道(No Outflow Channel,N)型起始强度最弱;RW事件则集中于最大强度后12–72小时,SE型发生最快,SP型最慢。RI事件集中在热带地区呈纬向分布,但SP型位置偏北;RW事件则呈西南-东北走向,但N型偏南。合成对比分析表明,高海温、潮湿中层和弱垂直风切变对各类RI均有重要贡献,而RW事件因出流型而异:D型与SP型主要受海温下降、中层干空气侵入及垂直风切变增大影响,N型受干空气与切变共同作用,SE型则处于相对有利RI的环境中,其RW机制需特别关注。台风暖心与次级环流演变表明,RI-D与RI-SE台风暖心增温显著且伸展深厚,低层辐合加强;RW过程中D型台风暖心迅速减弱下移,SP型变化滞后,SE型结构相对稳定,高空辐散与出流减弱是重要特征。本研究揭示了不同高空出流型影响下的台风强度快速变化事件的特征和差异,为深入理解RI与RW的物理机制提供了观测依据。

     

    Abstract: Utilizing multi-source observational data for typhoons over the Western North Pacific (June–October, 1979–2022), this study employs the XGBoost algorithm to objectively identify the four upper-level outflow patterns of typhoons proposed by Chen and Gray (1985) and compares the statistical characteristics, large-scale environmental conditions, and internal structural differences of typhoons during rapid intensification (RI) and rapid weakening (RW) events under different outflow patterns. The Single-channel Outflow equatorward pattern (SE-pattern) occurs most frequently, predominantly in August–September, while the Dual-channel Outflow pattern (D-pattern) and the Single-channel Outflow poleward pattern (SP-pattern) are less frequent but more common in October. Strong outflow in the D-pattern and SP-pattern is more conducive to RI and RW events, respectively. RI events are mostly concentrated within 12–60 hours after typhoon formation, with the No Outflow Channel pattern (N -pattern) having the weakest initial intensity. RW events are concentrated within 12–72 hours after the peak typhoon intensity, with the SE-pattern occurring the earliest and the SP-pattern the latest. RI events are zonally distributed in tropical regions, but the SP-pattern is located further north. The distribution of RW events exhibits a southwest–northeast orientation, but the N-pattern is situated further south. Composite comparative analysis indicates that high sea surface temperature, moist mid-level air, and weak vertical wind shear contribute significantly to RI events across all patterns. In contrast, RW events vary with outflow patterns: the D-pattern and SP-pattern are mainly influenced by declining sea surface temperature, dry air intrusion at mid-levels, and increased vertical wind shear; the N-pattern is affected by both dry air and wind shear; the SE-pattern exists in an environment relatively favorable for RI, and the mechanisms of RW-SP events require more attention. The evolution of the warm core and secondary circulation in typhoons shows that the RI-D typhoon and RI-SE typhoon exhibit significant warming of the warm core with deep vertical extent and enhanced low-level convergence. During RW, the warm core of the D-pattern typhoon weakens and descends rapidly, changes in the SP-pattern are delayed, and the structure of the SE-pattern remains relatively stable, with weakened upper-level divergence and outflow being important features. This study reveals the characteristics and differences of typhoon intensity rapid change events under the influence of different upper-level outflow patterns, providing observational evidence for a deeper understanding of the physical mechanisms of RI and RW events.

     

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