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青藏高原春季植被覆盖增加对中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的影响研究

Impact of Increased Spring Vegetation Cover in the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau on the Decadal Change of Summer Precipitation over Eastern China

  • 摘要: 中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的影响因子及其机制已有大量研究,但青藏高原植被变化的可能影响及过程尚不清楚。本文基于GIMMS(Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies)叶面积指数数据及中国区域格点降水等观测资料,分析了青藏高原春季植被年代际增加与中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的关系及影响过程。研究结果表明,青藏高原晚春(5月份)植被覆盖在2010年前后经历了显著的年代际转折,植被叶面积指数异常由偏少转为偏多;与此同时,中国东部夏季降水在2010年前后也发生了一次明显的年代际变化,淮河及华南地区由涝转旱,东北、华北及长江中下游地区的降水则由偏少转为偏多。针对高原地表能量收支及东亚夏季风环流变化的机理分析表明,伴随着2010年后青藏高原晚春植被覆盖的增加,与植被低反照率特性相对应,高原地表净短波辐射增加,有利于高原地表温度升高,从而增强地表向上感热通量。前期春季感热偏强有利于后期夏季大气热源整体偏强,高原上空大气加热增强,有利于南亚高压的增强与东伸,西太平洋副热带高压增强、西伸,从而使得2010年前后中国东部夏季降水发生上述年代际转变。本研究阐明了高原植被变化在年代际尺度上对中国东部夏季降水变化的重要调制作用。

     

    Abstract: The drivers and mechanisms of the decadal change in summer precipitation over eastern China have been widely investigated. In this context, the potential impact of vegetation changes on the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau (QXP) and its associated processes remain unclear. Using the GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) Leaf Area Index (LAI) dataset and gridded precipitation data over China, this study investigated the relationship between the decadal increase in spring vegetation cover in the QXP and the decadal change in summer precipitation over eastern China, and the associated mechanism. The results revealed that the late-spring (May) vegetation in the QXP has undergone notable decadal changes around 2010, with LAI anomalies turning from negative to positive. Concurrently, there has been a noticeable decadal change in the summer precipitation over eastern China after 2010, with a shift from wet to dry situations over the Huaihe River basin and South China, and precipitation anomalies turning from negative to positive over Northeast China, North China, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. A comparison analysis of the changes in the surface energy budget over the QXP and the East Asian summer monsoon circulation showed that as the vegetation cover in the QXP increased in the late spring after 2010, the net surface shortwave radiation increased in response to the low-albedo characteristics of vegetation, leading to an increase in the surface temperature over the QXP and consequently enhancing the upward surface sensible heat flux. The stronger spring sensible heat flux provides a stronger atmospheric heating source in the subsequent summer, intensifying and extending the South Asian High eastward. This effect is accompanied by the strengthening and westward movement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, thereby changing the decadal summer precipitation over eastern China around 2010. Thus, this study has elucidated the important modulating role of vegetation change in the QXP on the decadal change in summer precipitation over eastern China.

     

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