高级检索

粤东南区域一次暖区暴雨中小尺度降水系统发展演变的近地面热动力强迫效应

Near-surface Thermodynamic Forcing on the Development of Meso- and Micro-scale Precipitation Systems during a Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall Event in Southeastern Guangdong

  • 摘要: 华南地区暖区暴雨频发,其降水强度大,物理机制复杂且常与强强迫的锋面降水同时发生,为业务预报带来极大挑战。本文针对粤东南区域发生的一次具有中小尺度对流系统快速组织和发展演变特征的暖区暴雨过程,基于中尺度区域数值预报模式(WRF)的高分辨率数值模拟,分析了此次强降水过程的中小尺度降水系统的发展演变和组织特征以及近地面热动力强迫效应与水汽条件,并通过地形敏感性试验探讨了地形对降水发生发展的影响。结果表明,强降水过程具有前期内陆发展、后期沿海维持的时空特征。低空急流与副热带高压边缘环流共同建立持续的水汽输送通道,在降水中心区形成低层辐合,增强局地抬升与水汽汇聚。地形降低削弱强迫抬升并导致降水带断裂,而地形抬升则增强水汽汇聚与不稳定能量释放,重塑降水结构,充分表明地形通过对低层环流、垂直运动以及水汽输送过程的调控,对该强降水中心区域的降水发生和演变具有直接影响。

     

    Abstract: Warm-sector heavy rainfall occurs frequently over South China, characterized by high precipitation intensity and complex physical mechanisms, and often coexists with strongly forced frontal rainfall, posing great challenges to operational forecasting. This study focuses on a warm-sector heavy rainfall event in the southeastern Guangdong, characterized by the rapid organization, development, and evolution of meso- and micro-scale convective systems. Using high-resolution numerical simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the study analyzes the development, evolution, and organization of mesoscale precipitation systems, as well as near-surface thermodynamic and dynamic forcing and moisture conditions. Furthermore, terrain sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the influence of topography on precipitation initiation and development. The results show that the event exhibits a typical spatiotemporal evolution pattern, with convection developing inland during the early stage and persisting along the coast later on. The low-level jet and the circulation along the periphery of the subtropical high jointly established a persistent moisture transport channel, leading to pronounced low-level convergence, enhanced local ascent, and moisture accumulation in the rainfall center. Terrain reduction weakens the forced lifting and causes the precipitation band to break, whereas terrain enhancement strengthens moisture convergence and instability release, reshaping the precipitation structure. These findings demonstrate that topography exerts a direct influence on the occurrence and evolution of heavy rainfall in this region by modulating low-level circulation, vertical motion, and moisture transport.

     

/

返回文章
返回