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基于CRA大气再分析资料的中国云水资源评估及结果对比

Quantification and Comparison of Cloud Water Resources in China Based on CRA Atmospheric Reanalysis Data

  • 摘要: 云水资源是指一定时段内,参与区域大气水循环全部过程,没有形成地面降水仍留在空中的那部分水凝物(云水)。对云水资源的定量评估和特性规律认识,是人工影响天气作业的基础。本研究基于已建立的云水资源评估理论方法,利用1°×1°和0.25°×0.25°不同分辨率的国产CRA-40(China Meteorological Administration ReAnalysis;40)大气再分析资料实现2024年度中国云水资源诊断评估计算,同时利用CRA-40自带云含水量产品进行云水资源计算,并开展评估结果对比。主要结论有:全球变化背景下,2024年中国水汽总量、云水总量和降水量均高于2000-2024年多年平均值,云水资源接近于多年平均值;CRA-40大气再分析资料在云水资源评估及特性分析中有较好的应用前景。不同分辨率的CRA-40数据降水量和平均水汽状态量与中国云水资源气候诊断数据集(CWR1.0)和ERA5大气再分析资料的同类要素在空间分布、逐月变化和量级上整体上较为一致;0.25°×0.25°的更高分辨率CRA-40数据对于天山山脉、昆仑山-祁连山及长江流域等区域的局部降水和云水高值区表现更为明显,刻画了云凝结量、云水资源和水凝物降水效率更精细的分布特征;采用CRA-40相对湿度诊断的水凝物场更加稳定,云含水量与CERES卫星反演结果更接近,升尺度计算减小了不同资料来源及不同空间尺度对云水资源评估结果的影响,与CWR1.0的结果更一致。

     

    Abstract: Cloud-water resources are defined as the portion of atmospheric hydrometeors, specifically cloud water, that participates in regional atmospheric water-cycle processes within a given period but remains suspended in the atmosphere rather than precipitating to the surface. Quantitative assessment of cloud-water resources and improved understanding of their characteristics and variability provide a fundamental basis for weather modification operations. Based on an established theoretical framework and methodology for cloud-water resource assessment, this study uses the first-generation Chinese global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the China Meteorological Administration, CRA-40, at two spatial resolutions, namely 1°×1° and 0.25°×0.25°, to conduct a diagnostic assessment of cloud-water resources over China in 2024. In addition, cloud-water resources are calculated using the native cloud water content product provided by CRA-40. The assessment results are further compared with corresponding variables from CWR1.0 and ERA5, while the diagnosed cloud water content is evaluated against CERES satellite retrievals. The results show that, against the background of global change, the total atmospheric water vapor, total cloud water, and precipitation over China in 2024 were all substantially higher than their climatological levels. Against the background of global change, the total atmospheric water vapor, total cloud water, and precipitation over China in 2024 were all higher than their multi-year mean values for 2000–2024, while cloud-water resources were close to their multi-year mean. These results indicate that CRA-40 atmospheric reanalysis data have considerable potential for application in cloud-water resource assessment and characterization. The precipitation and mean water-vapor-related variables derived from CRA-40 data at different spatial resolutions are generally consistent with the corresponding CWR1.0 and ERA5 products in terms of spatial distribution, monthly variation, and magnitude. Compared with the coarser-resolution data, the higher-resolution CRA-40 data more clearly represent localized high-value centers of precipitation and cloud water over regions such as the Tianshan Mountains, the Kunlun–Qilian Mountains, and the Yangtze River Basin. This characterizes the finer-scale distribution features of cloud condensation amount, cloud-water resources, and the precipitation efficiency of hydrometeors. Moreover, the hydrometeor fields diagnosed using CRA-40 relative humidity are more stable, and cloud water path (CWP) are closer to those retrieved from CERES satellite observations. The spatial upscaling calculation reduces the influence of differences in data sources and spatial scales on cloud-water resource assessment, resulting in estimates that are broadly consistent with those from CWR1.0.

     

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