高级检索

林芝市巴宜区夏季水汽输送轨迹和来源定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Summer Water Vapor Transport Trajectories and Sources in Bayi District, Nyingchi City

  • 摘要: 本研究主要利用2022年6-8月林芝市巴宜区地面观测站降水,GDAS资料,采用后向轨迹模型、潜在源区贡献函数(WPSCF)、浓度加权轨迹(WCWT)等方法定量分析了2022年6月至8月林芝市巴宜区的水汽输送轨迹,并讨论了水汽来源及其对夏季降水的贡献率,并结合高原季风指数(PMI)探讨其与降水的相关关系。需要指出的是,WPSCF与WCWT方法传统上主要应用于大气污染物源解析,而本研究将其首次拓展至林芝市巴宜区水汽来源的识别,为水汽输送研究提供了新的思路。结果显示:南亚季风爆发使孟加拉、印度洋等南部地区水汽沿雅鲁藏布江河谷远距输送,是林芝市巴宜区夏季降水的首要水汽源,其中孟加拉湾与印度洋北部合计贡献40%-45%。巴宜区水汽源呈月变化特征,6月近场山谷再循环最强(WPSCF 0.70,WCWT 15.9),与波密南段短程输送共同主导降水;7月夏季风峰值期,背景湿层加厚导致单格贡献被稀释,波密北段通道成为主要来源(WPSCF 0.10,WCWT 3.09),水汽来源趋向均匀分散;8月夏季风减弱,波密中-下段长通道重新集中水汽(WPSCF 0.11,WCWT 20.41),谷地再循环效率同步回升。除主通道外,局地水汽再循环(夏季占15%-20%)和西风带水汽(主要影响非雨季)对降水具有持续补充作用,在复杂地形抬升区表现为"低概率-高效率"触发。同时分析发现,利用1981—2022年林芝市巴宜区逐月降水资料,与同期PMI计算其皮尔逊相关关系,表明在5月至8月期间,夏季风PMI与林芝市巴宜区降水的相关性呈现逐月递增,其中5月呈高度负相关(r=-0.39,p<0.05),6月相关性趋近于零,而7月和8月的夏季风与降水强度呈显著正相关,分别显示(r=0.38,p<0.05)及(r=0.41,p<0.01)。从上述分析得出,林芝市巴宜区夏季水汽来源经历"初夏近场-盛夏均匀-晚夏远输"的演变,南亚季风强度与谷地地形通道共同决定了区域水汽通量与降水分布,为青藏高原东南缘水汽输送机制及水资源管理提供了科学依据。

     

    Abstract: This study primarily utilized precipitation observations from surface stations in Bayi District, Nyingchi City, together with GDAS reanalysis data, to quantitatively analyze the water vapor transport trajectories during June–August 2022 by means of a backward trajectory model, the potential source contribution function (WPSCF), and the concentration-weighted trajectory (WCWT) method. The water vapor sources and their contributions to summer precipitation were examined, and the relationship between water vapor transport and precipitation was further discussed in conjunction with the Plateau Monsoon Index (PMI). It should be noted that the WPSCF and WCWT methods have traditionally been applied to the source apportionment of atmospheric pollutants; in this study, however, they are innovatively extended to identify the water vapor sources of Bayi District, providing a new perspective for water vapor transport research. The results indicate that the outbreak of the South Asian monsoon enabled long-distance transport of moisture from the Bay of Bengal and northern Indian Ocean along the Yarlung Tsangpo River valley, making them the dominant water vapor sources of summer precipitation in Bayi District, with a combined contribution of 40%–45%. The sources of water vapor exhibited distinct monthly variations: in June, near-field valley recirculation was strongest (WPSCF = 0.70, WCWT = 15.9), together with short-range transport from southern Bomi; in July, during the monsoon peak, thickened background moisture layers diluted single-grid contributions, while the northern Bomi corridor became dominant (WPSCF = 0.10, WCWT = 3.09), resulting in more evenly dispersed sources; in August, as the monsoon weakened, long-distance transport through the mid–lower Bomi corridor reconcentrated moisture (WPSCF = 0.11, WCWT = 20.41), accompanied by a revival of valley recirculation efficiency. In addition to the main transport channels, local moisture recirculation (contributing 15%–20% in summer) and westerly moisture (primarily affecting non-rainy seasons) provided supplementary input to precipitation, functioning as a “low probability–high efficiency” trigger in complex orographic uplift regions. Further analysis, based on monthly precipitation records for 1981–2022, showed that the Pearson correlation between the Plateau Monsoon Index (PMI) and precipitation in Bayi District increased progressively from May to August. A significant negative correlation was observed in May (r = ?0.39, p < 0.05); the relationship approached zero in June, while significant positive correlations emerged in July (r = 0.38, p < 0.05) and August (r = 0.41, p < 0.01).In summary, the summer water vapor sources in Bayi District exhibited a seasonal evolution of “near-field in early summer—uniform in midsummer—long-range in late summer.” The interplay between the intensity of the South Asian monsoon and the valley channel topography jointly governed the regional water vapor flux and precipitation distribution. These findings provide a scientific basis for understanding moisture transport mechanisms and water resource management along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau.

     

/

返回文章
返回