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1961-2024年洞庭湖流域极端降水变化特征及其对气候增暖的响应

Extreme Precipitation Variations in the Dongting Lake Basin during 1961–2024: Characteristics and Response to Climate Warming

  • 摘要: 本文基于长时序中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集,分析了1961–2024年洞庭湖流域极端降水的时空变化特征及其对气候增暖的响应。结果表明:流域降水空间分异显著,西部以减少为主(-10至-45 mm/10a),东部则以增加为主(15至45 mm/10a);时间上呈现显著的降水“集中化”趋势,降水集中度(Precipitation Concentration Index,PCI)以0.07/10a的速率上升,降水高度集中于4-7月(占全年54.5%),且7月占比以0.37%/10a增加,而4月占比以-0.41%/10a下降。近64年该流域极端降水发生结构性变化,呈现“量增、强增、频稳”的异步模式:强降水量(R95pTOT)与极端强降水量(R99pTOT)分别以5.26 mm/10a和4.03 mm/10a显著上升,降水强度(SDⅡ)和最大5日降水量(Rx5day)分别增加0.1(mm/day)/10a和3.41 mm/10a,而大雨日数(R10mm)变化微弱(-0.02 d/10a)。研究还表明,PCI与极端降水量显著正相关,直接驱动其强度极端化。气候变暖背景下,所有降水事件中最强的10%事件对温度的响应(ΔP/ΔT)高达6.4% /K,且水汽距平可解释极端降水年际变异的12.9%–13.9%,是关键的调控因子。研究成果可为流域防灾减灾与水资源管理提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on the long-term China Regional Surface Meteorological Element Driving Dataset, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Dongting Lake Basin from 1961 to 2024 and its response to climate warming. The results show that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the basin is highly heterogeneous, with a predominant decreasing trend in the western region (-10 to -45 mm/10a) and an increasing trend in the eastern region (15 to 45 mm/10a). Temporally, a significant "concentration" trend of precipitation is observed. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) increased at a rate of 0.07/10a, with precipitation heavily concentrated from April to July (accounting for 54.5% of the annual total). The proportion of precipitation in July increased by 0.37%/10a, while the proportion in April decreased by -0.41%/10a.Over the past 64 years, the structure of extreme precipitation events in the basin has changed, exhibiting an asynchronous pattern of "increase in amount, increase in intensity, and stable frequency": the heavy precipitation amount (R95pTOT) and extreme heavy precipitation amount (R99pTOT) increased significantly by 5.26 mm/10a and 4.03 mm/10a, respectively; precipitation intensity (SDⅡ) and the maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day) increased by 0.1 (mm/day)/10a and 3.41 mm/10a, respectively; while the number of heavy rain days (R10mm) changed only slightly (-0.02 d/10a). The study further indicates that PCI is significantly positively correlated with extreme precipitation amount, directly driving its intensification. Under the background of climate warming, the response of the strongest 10% of precipitation events to temperature (ΔP/ΔT) reaches 6.4%/K. Moreover, water vapor anomalies can explain 12.9%–13.9% of the interannual variability in extreme precipitation, serving as a key regulating factor. The research findings provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention, mitigation, and water resource management in the basin.

     

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