Abstract:
Based on the long-term China Regional Surface Meteorological Element Driving Dataset, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Dongting Lake Basin from 1961 to 2024 and its response to climate warming. The results show that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the basin is highly heterogeneous, with a predominant decreasing trend in the western region (-10 to -45 mm/10a) and an increasing trend in the eastern region (15 to 45 mm/10a). Temporally, a significant "concentration" trend of precipitation is observed. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) increased at a rate of 0.07/10a, with precipitation heavily concentrated from April to July (accounting for 54.5% of the annual total). The proportion of precipitation in July increased by 0.37%/10a, while the proportion in April decreased by -0.41%/10a.Over the past 64 years, the structure of extreme precipitation events in the basin has changed, exhibiting an asynchronous pattern of "increase in amount, increase in intensity, and stable frequency": the heavy precipitation amount (R95pTOT) and extreme heavy precipitation amount (R99pTOT) increased significantly by 5.26 mm/10a and 4.03 mm/10a, respectively; precipitation intensity (SDⅡ) and the maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day) increased by 0.1 (mm/day)/10a and 3.41 mm/10a, respectively; while the number of heavy rain days (R10mm) changed only slightly (-0.02 d/10a). The study further indicates that PCI is significantly positively correlated with extreme precipitation amount, directly driving its intensification. Under the background of climate warming, the response of the strongest 10% of precipitation events to temperature (ΔP/ΔT) reaches 6.4%/K. Moreover, water vapor anomalies can explain 12.9%–13.9% of the interannual variability in extreme precipitation, serving as a key regulating factor. The research findings provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention, mitigation, and water resource management in the basin.