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影响2025年春季云南干旱缓解的前冬关键因子

Key Winter Precursors for Mitigating Drought in Yunnan during Spring 2025

  • 摘要: 云南春季降水量少,极易发生干旱,在全球变暖背景下,春季降水多寡对云南干旱及生态农业影响更为重要。本文基于云南125站月降水观测资料、NCEP/NCAR全球再分析大气环流月资料等,采用因果信息流、合成等方法,对影响2025年春季云南干旱缓解的前冬关键因子及其影响机理进行分析。发现综合500hPa高度、200hPa势函数等多种信息的耦合因子对云南春季干旱缓解有重要的作用,该因子在前冬正异常并在2024年11—12月发生了较大幅度的跃升。分析表明,该因子与海洋变化关系密切,其变化对应赤道中东太平洋海温向La Ni?a调整,热带西太平洋异常上升区域向西、向北扩展,覆盖整个云南地区,导致云南降水从偏少转为偏多。进一步从海洋角度分析影响该关键因子正异常及发生跃升的原因,发现前期热带西印度洋、西太平洋、中太平洋、大西洋强迫异常能导致关键因子正异常,而热带西太平洋和东太平洋到大西洋区域海温异常强迫的月际变化可能是12月此关键因子跃升的主要原因。但2025年导致前期冬季11—12月该因子正异常的主要原因是热带西印度洋强迫异常,导致其季节内跃升的关键区域在热带中太平洋。本文分析结果可更早地为云南区域可能发生的旱涝灾害预警提供科学的预测依据。

     

    Abstract: Spring is a dry season in Yunnan, characterized by low precipitation and high drought vulnerability. Against the background of global warming, spring precipitation plays an increasingly important role in drought evolution and ecological agriculture in Yunnan. Based on monthly precipitation data from 160 stations compiled by the National Climate Center and monthly global reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR, this study investigates the key winter precursors and their anomalous causes associated with the mitigation of drought in Yunnan during the spring of 2025, using Liang Kleeman information flow and composite analysis methods. The results indicate that the key winter precursors exhibited a positive anomaly with a pronounced increase from November to December 2024. This increase corresponds to a transition of the tropical oceans toward La Ni?a conditions, during which anomalous ascending motion over the western tropical Pacific expanded westward and northward, exerting influence over Yunnan and thereby favoring above-normal spring precipitation. Anomalous forcing over the western tropical Indian Ocean, western Pacific, central Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans can induce positive anomalies for the key winter precursors. Moreover, intra-seasonal variations in anomalous forcing extending from the western and eastern tropical Pacific to the Atlantic are likely the primary cause for the abrupt enhancement of the precursor in December. The positive anomaly of the key factor during pre-spring period of 2025 (November–December 2024) is mainly attributed to anomalous forcing from the tropical western Indian Ocean, while the key region responsible for the abrupt increase of the key precursor is located in the tropical central Pacific. This study identifies key winter precursors influencing spring precipitation, providing a physical basis for earlier warnings of potential drought and flood disasters in the region.

     

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