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“竹节草”(2025)残涡引发苏南强降水的特征分析

Characteristics Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Induced by the Residual Vortex of Typhoon Co-may (2025) in Southern Jiangsu

  • 摘要: 利用常规观测资料、常州S波段双偏振雷达资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料及热带气旋最佳路径资料,针对2025年8月12日台风“竹节草”残涡引发苏南极端暴雨过程展开研究,对比1日傍晚、2日凌晨、2日午后三段强对流过程的天气背景、环境条件、中尺度触发机制及雷达微物理特征的异同。结果表明,三段强对流过程虽均发生在有利的大尺度环流背景下,高低空系统配置为强对流反复发生提供了持续的动力和水汽条件,并受地面辐合线和冷池出流边界触发,但其环流耦合状态、干冷空气侵入程度、水汽输送结构及热动力条件存在明显差异。第一段过程中,边界层辐合和低层暖湿平流最为显著,对流触发条件较好;第二、第三段过程中,辐合重心上移至中低层,前期降水形成的冷池和拖曳下沉使近地层触发条件有所转差,但中层高能区在持续暖湿输送和中低层抬升作用下得以维持和释放。干冷空气在不同阶段的作用具有明显层次性。初期中层干冷空气侵入并未简单表现为不稳定度增强,而是在一定程度上提高了近地层对流触发门槛;但其通过蒸发冷却增强下沉气流和冷池发展,促进边界层辐合线维持和新生对流触发,对强降水的组织与再发展具有重要调制作用。中尺度分析表明,边界层辐合线和冷池出流边界是三次强对流触发的直接机制,对流单体持续在系统上风侧或辐合带附近生成并并入主回波带,形成明显的后向传播,这是维持对流系统再生和减缓系统移动的重要机制;在此基础上,列车效应是造成局地降水反复叠加并最终形成极端累积雨量的关键机制。双偏振雷达和雨滴谱资料表明,1日傍晚过程以深厚暖云低质心降水为主,暖雨碰并过程占优势;2日凌晨过程对流发展最深厚,混合相过程最活跃;2日午后过程则表现为暖雨过程与较弱冰相过程共同作用,并在后向传播和列车效应配合下产生最强瞬时降水。总体而言,此次苏南极端降水是在台风残涡长时间滞留背景下,持续暖湿输送、有利高低空配置、干冷空气阶段性调制、中尺度对流系统后向传播和列车效应维持,以及高效暖雨和混合相微物理过程共同作用的结果。

     

    Abstract: Using conventional observations, S-band dual-polarization radar data from Changzhou, the fifth-generation reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and tropical cyclone best-track data, this study investigates the extreme rainstorm event over southern Jiangsu induced by the residual vortex of Typhoon Co-May on 12 August 2025, with emphasis on the similarities and differences among three severe convective events occurring on the evening of 1 August, the early morning of 2 August, and the afternoon of 2 August in terms of synoptic background, environmental conditions, mesoscale triggering mechanisms, and radar-derived microphysical characteristics. The results show that, although all three severe convective events developed under a favorable large-scale circulation background, with the upper- and lower-level circulation configuration providing persistent dynamical forcing and moisture supply for repeated convection, and were triggered by surface convergence lines and cold-pool outflow boundaries, they differed markedly in circulation coupling, the degree of dry-cold air intrusion, moisture transport structure, and thermodynamic conditions. During the first event, boundary-layer convergence and low-level warm-moist advection were most pronounced, resulting in relatively favorable convective initiation conditions. During the second and third events, the convergence center shifted upward to the lower and middle troposphere. Although the cold pool and drag-induced downdrafts produced by earlier precipitation made near-surface convective initiation less favorable, the midlevel high-energy region was maintained and released under persistent warm-moist transport and lower- to midlevel lifting. The role of dry-cold air exhibited clear stage dependence. In the initial stage, the intrusion of midlevel dry-cold air did not simply enhance atmospheric instability; instead, it increased the threshold for near-surface convective initiation to some extent. However, through evaporative cooling, it enhanced downdrafts and cold-pool development, thereby favoring the maintenance of boundary-layer convergence lines and the initiation of new convection, and playing an important modulating role in the organization and redevelopment of heavy precipitation. Mesoscale analysis indicates that boundary-layer convergence lines and cold-pool outflow boundaries were the direct triggers of the three severe convective events. Convective cells continuously formed on the upshear side of the system or near the convergence zone and merged into the main echo band, producing pronounced back-building, which was an important mechanism for sustaining convective regeneration and slowing system movement. On this basis, the training effect was the key mechanism responsible for the repeated superposition of local precipitation and the eventual formation of extreme accumulated rainfall. Dual-polarization radar and disdrometer observations further show that the first event was dominated by deep warm-cloud, low-centroid precipitation, with warm-rain collision-coalescence processes prevailing; the second event exhibited the deepest convective development and the most active mixed-phase processes; and the third event was characterized by the combined effects of warm-rain processes and relatively weak ice-phase processes, producing the strongest instantaneous rainfall under the joint influence of back-building and the training effect. Overall, the extreme rainfall over southern Jiangsu resulted from the combined effects of the long-lived stagnation of the typhoon residual vortex, persistent warm-moist transport, favorable upper- and lower-level circulation configuration, stage-dependent modulation by dry-cold air, the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems through back-building and the training effect, and efficient warm-rain and mixed-phase microphysical processes.

     

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