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基于动力降尺度和误差订正的中国区域复合高温干旱模拟评估与未来预估

Bias correction of compound hot-dry events over China for RCM simulations and projection

  • 摘要: 气候模式对复合极端事件的模拟能力通常劣于单一事件,导致其预估结果存在更大不确定性。本研究基于3个CMIP6全球气候模式驱动的区域气候模式RegCM4.4模拟结果,采用单变量分位数映射法(QDM)和多变量偏差订正方法(MBCn),对中国区域气温、降水及复合高温干旱指数(PI)进行误差订正,并对比评估两种方法的订正效果。在验证MBCn对复合变量订正优势的基础上,分析SSP245排放情景下21世纪中期(2021-2060年)和远期(2061-2100年)中国复合高温干旱事件的演变特征。结果表明:QDM和MBCn对气温、降水单变量的订正效果均较显著,气温和降水的相关系数分别提高至0.99和0.80以上,均值偏差分别控制在±0.5℃和±1mm/d以内。但QDM对PI指数的订正效果有限,而MBCn能有效保留变量间的联合分布特征,空间相关系数提高至0.71~0.97并减小了均值偏差和均方根误差,在复合事件模拟中优势明显。未来SSP245情景下,中国复合高温干旱的极端性整体增强,冬季风险增加最为显著;风险格局呈现“中期全国扩张、远期北方聚焦”的演变特征,其中华中、华东是多季节叠加的核心高风险区。

     

    Abstract: Climate model simulations are generally found to exhibit poorer performance in simulating compound extreme events than in simulating single-variable extremes, which leads to greater uncertainties in future projections. In this study, univariate quantile delta mapping (QDM) and a multivariate bias correction method (MBCn) are applied to adjust biases in surface air temperature, precipitation, and the compound hot–dry index (PI) across China. The bias correction is performed using simulations from the regional climate model RegCM4.4, driven by three global climate models participating in CMIP6. The performance of the two methods is compared and evaluated. After the superiority of MBCn in correcting compound variables is validated, the projected changes in compound hot–dry events over China are analyzed under the SSP245 scenario for the mid-term(2021–2060) and long-term (2061–2100) future periods. Both QDM and MBCn showed excellent performance in correcting the univariate biases of temperature and precipitation, with correlation coefficients exceeding 0.99 and 0.80, respectively, and mean biases constrained within ±0.5°C and ±1mm/d. However, limited performance is shown by QDM in correcting the PI index, whereas the joint distribution characteristics among variables are effectively preserved by MBCn, increasing the spatial correlation coefficient to 0.71–0.97 and reducing the mean bias and root-mean-square error, thereby demonstrating a clear advantage in simulating compound events. Under the SSP245 scenario, the extremity of compound hot–dry events across China is projected to intensify, with the most pronounced increase in risk occurring in winter. A shift from a nationwide expansion in the mid-term to a concentration in northern China in the long-term is exhibited in the spatial pattern of risk evolution, with Central China and East China emerging as high-risk hotspots where risks from multiple seasons overlap.

     

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