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CMIP6模式模拟大湄公河次区域土壤湿度-蒸散发耦合的模式间差异分析

Inter-model Spread in CMIP6 Simulations of Soil Moisture-Evapotranspiration Coupling over the Greater Mekong Subregion

  • 摘要: 大湄公河次区域(Greater Mekong Subregion, GMS)是东亚季风影响显著、陆气相互作用活跃的区域,土壤湿度-蒸散发耦合对区域水热过程具有重要调节作用。不同CMIP6模式对该区域耦合特征的模拟存在显著差异,识别其主导模态及可能成因,对于理解区域陆气耦合模拟的不确定性具有重要意义。本文基于29个CMIP6模式历史试验资料,分析了GMS区域干湿季土壤湿度-蒸散发耦合指数(TCI)的空间分布特征及其模式间差异,并结合EOF分析、回归分析和合成分析,从水分过程和能量过程角度探讨了模式间差异的可能机制。结果表明:(1)TCI模式间差异的第一模态表现为区域一致型,反映了不同模式对区域整体耦合强度模拟的差异。干季该模态主要与水分过程有关,而湿季则主要与净辐射通量差异有关。(2)TCI模式间差异的第二模态表现为南北反相型,反映了不同模式对区域内部耦合空间结构模拟的差异。干季该模态主要与南北区域土壤湿度对比强度有关,湿季则主要与区域内部净辐射通量梯度差异有关。

     

    Abstract: The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) is a region strongly influenced by the East Asian monsoon and characterized by active land-atmosphere interactions, where soil moisture-evapotranspiration coupling plays an important role in regulating regional hydrothermal processes. Significant differences exist among CMIP6 models in their simulation of coupling characteristics over this region. Identifying the dominant modes of these inter-model differences and their possible causes is therefore important for understanding the uncertainty in regional land-atmosphere coupling simulations. Based on historical simulations from 29 CMIP6 models, this study investigates the spatial distribution of the soil moisture-evapotranspiration coupling index (TCI) over the GMS during the dry and wet seasons, as well as its inter-model differences. EOF analysis, regression analysis, and composite analysis are further employed to explore the possible mechanisms underlying these inter-model differences from the perspectives of hydrological and energy processes. The results show that: (1) the first mode of inter-model TCI differences exhibits a regionally coherent pattern, reflecting differences among models in the simulation of the overall coupling strength across the region. During the dry season, this mode is mainly related to hydrological processes, whereas during the wet season it is primarily associated with differences in net radiation flux. (2) The second mode of inter-model TCI differences exhibits a meridional dipole pattern, reflecting differences among models in the simulated spatial structure of land-atmosphere coupling within the region. In the dry season, this mode is mainly associated with the north-south contrast in soil moisture among models, whereas in the wet season it is mainly related to differences in the spatial gradient of net radiation flux within the region.

     

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