Abstract: Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin is jointly influenced by multiple thermodynamic and dynamic factors, among which interdiurnal temperature variation may play an important role in precipitation triggering. Based on daily meteorological observations over the Yangtze River Basin during 1961–2022, this study systematically investigates the statistical relationship between interdiurnal warming and the probability of next-day precipitation occurrence, as well as its long-term trends. The results show a significant positive relationship between interdiurnal warming and next-day precipitation probability. This relationship is evident in spring, summer, and autumn, with the strongest signal in summer, indicating a pronounced sensitivity to temperature changes. Further analyses reveal that the interdiurnal warming–next-day precipitation relationship exhibits a certain degree of nonlinearity. The optimal thresholds of interdiurnal warming for each season are determined using relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and the probability of next-day precipitation increases markedly once interdiurnal warming exceeds these thresholds. Based on these thresholds, compound events of strong and weak interdiurnal warming with next-day precipitation are identified. Comparative analyses show that next-day precipitation is more likely to occur under strong interdiurnal warming conditions, and that the mean frequency and precipitation occurrence probability of strong compound events are significantly higher than those of weak compound events. From the perspective of long-term trends, strong compound events exhibit significant increasing trends in summer and autumn, whereas weak events show decreasing tendencies. Overall, under a warming climate, the linkage between interdiurnal warming and next-day precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin has strengthened, and strong interdiurnal warming can serve as an important thermodynamic signal for precipitation occurrence.