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超强台风 Ragasa 远海近岸异常加强的特征和原因分析

Characteristics and causes of the anomalous intensification of super typhoon Ragasa over offshore and nearshore regions

  • 摘要: 超强台风桦加沙(Ragasa)经历了远海快速加强(RI)、近岸强台风维持(Near-LF)的强度异常变化。本文重点剖析其相关的内核结构特征及台风加强指数(TCII)演变,揭示强度异常变化的原因。剖析台风强度异常相关的涡旋几何特性、内核热动力和外部环境特征,发现相对于Pre-RI时期,台风RI、Near-LF阶段具备水平尺度显著收缩、垂直方向涡旋趋于直立、非对称性减小、低层相对涡度和相当位温径向梯度增强、罗斯贝数Ro 增长特性;但登陆前Near-LF阶段非对称性增大。采用吸纳了上述指示性特征要素、可综合表征台风异常变化的指标(Y 指数、罗斯贝数Ro、台风加强指数TCII),计算表明TCII可较好指示RI和Near-LF阶段的强度异常变化,Y 指数增长是 TCII 升高、RI启动/ Near-LF强台风维持的主导因子;登陆前非对称性增强导致 Y的贡献度降低,台风尺度和旋转动能变化的贡献占比大为提高。进一步开展切变相对坐标系的通风效应、中层增湿、动量收支分析,揭示台风强度异常变化的原因。发现顺切变(DS)及其左侧(LS)的台风加强优势象限,RI 之前DS象限的低层正通风(即暖湿异常入流)、RI期间DS象限的中层增湿特征显著;Near-LF 阶段 LS 象限的低层正通风及中层增湿是近岸强台风维持的重要原因。RI 期间切向风加速主要由平均径向涡度通量驱动,径向风则是在梯度风平衡约束下重新调整;而登陆前阶段动量收支过程表现为强内核的维持与再分配;二者共同构建了桦加沙远海快速加强及近岸强台风维持的内部动力调整机制。

     

    Abstract: Super Typhoon Ragasa experienced anomalous intensity changes, characterized by offshore rapid intensification (RI) and nearshore intense typhoon maintenance (Near LF). This study focuses on analyzing the associated inner core structural characteristics and the evolution of the typhoon intensification index (TCII) to reveal the causes of these anomalous intensity changes. By examining the vortex geometric properties, inner core thermodynamic and dynamic features, and external environmental conditions related to the intensity anomalies, we find that, compared with the Pre RI period, the RI and Near LF stages are characterized by a significant contraction in horizontal scale, a more upright vertical vortex structure, reduced asymmetry, enhanced low level relative vorticity and radial gradient of equivalent potential temperature, and increased Rossby number Ro. However, during the pre landfall Near LF stage, the asymmetry increases. Using composite indices that incorporate these indicative factors and can comprehensively represent typhoon anomalies—namely the Y index, Rossby number Ro, and typhoon intensification index TCII—our calculations show that TCII effectively captures the intensity anomalies during both the RI and near LF stages. The increase in the Y index is the dominant factor driving the rise in TCII and the onset of RI / maintenance of the intense typhoon during near LF. As asymmetry intensifies before landfall, the contribution of the Y index decreases, while the contributions of changes in typhoon size and rotational kinetic energy become substantially more important. Further analyses of ventilation effects in a shear relative coordinate system, mid level moistening, and momentum budgets are conducted to reveal the physical causes of the intensity anomalies. The down shear (DS) and left of shear (LS) quadrants are identified as the preferential sectors for intensification. Before RI, notable positive low level ventilation (warm and moist anomalous inflow) occurs in the DS quadrant, and during RI, mid level moistening is also evident in the DS quadrant. During the Near LF stage, positive low level ventilation and mid level moistening in the LS quadrant play key roles on sustaining the nearshore intense typhoon. During the RI period, the tangential wind acceleration is primarily driven by the mean radial vorticity flux, while the radial wind adjusts under gradient wind balance constraints. Before landfall, the momentum budget processes manifest as maintenance and redistribution of the strong inner core. Together, these processes constitute the internal dynamic adjustment mechanisms responsible for Ragasa''s offshore rapid intensification and nearshore maintenance.

     

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