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2009 Vol. 26, No. 1

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Coupling Ensemble Kalman Filter with Four-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation
Fuqing ZHANG, Meng ZHANG, James A. HANSEN
2009, 26(1): 1-8. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0001-8
This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system (4DVAR) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme (E4DVAR) benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence: the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.
A Re-examination of Density Effects in Eddy Covariance Measurements of CO2 Fluxes
Heping LIU
2009, 26(1): 9-16. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0009-0
Corrections of density effects resulting from air-parcel expansion/compression are important in interpreting eddy covariance fluxes of water vapor and CO2 when open-path systems are used. To account for these effects, mean vertical velocity and perturbation of the density of dry air are two critical parameters in treating those physical processes responsible for density variations. Based on various underlying assumptions, different studies have obtained different formulas for the mean vertical velocity and perturbation of the density of dry air, leading to a number of approaches to correct density effects. In this study, we re-examine physical processes related to different assumptions that are made to formulate the density effects. Specifically, we re-examine the assumptions of a zero dry air flux and a zero moist air flux in the surface layer, used for treating density variations, and their implications for correcting density effects. It is found that physical processes in relation to the assumption of a zero dry air flux account for the influence of dry air expansion/compression on density variations. Meanwhile, physical processes in relation to the assumption of a zero moist air flux account for the influence of moist air expansion/compression on density variations. In this study, we also re-examine mixing ratio issues. Our results indicate that the assumption of a zero dry air flux favors the use of the mixing ratio relative to dry air, while the assumption of a zero moist air flux favors the use of the mixing ratio relative to the total moist air. Additionally, we compare different formula for the mean vertical velocity, generated by air-parcel expansion/compression, and for density effect corrections using eddy covariance data measured over three boreal ecosystems.
Marine Meteorology Research Progress of China from 2003 to 2006
WANG Dongxiao, ZHANG Yan, ZENG Lili, LUO Lin
2009, 26(1): 17-30. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0017-0
The progress in marine meteorology research achieved by scientists in China during the four-year period from 2003 to 2006 is summarized under four categories: marine disaster study, typhoon over the ocean, ocean-atmosphere monitoring technology, and ocean-atmosphere forecasting technology. Compared to the previous four years, many more first-hand datasets have been obtained and more scientific issues have been addressed. In particular, many contributions have been made by young scientists. A brief statement on the research strategy of marine meteorology in China for the coming years is given at the end.
Eurasian Snow Cover Variability and Its Association with Summer Rainfall in China
WU Bingyi, YANG Kun, ZHANG Renhe
2009, 26(1): 31-44. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0031-2
This study investigates the statistical linkage between summer rainfall in China and the preceding spring Eurasian snow water equivalent (SWE), using the datasets of summer rainfall observations from 513 stations, satellite-observed snow water equivalent, and atmospheric circulation variables in the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis during the period from 1979 to 2004. The first two coupled modes are identified by using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method. The leading SVD mode of the spring SWE variability shows a coherent negative anomaly in most of Eurasia with the opposite anomaly in some small areas of the Tibetan Plateau and East Asia. The mode displays strong interannual variability, superposed on an interdecadal variation that occurred in the late 1980s, with persistent negative phases in 1979--1987 and frequent positive phases afterwards. When the leading mode is in its positive phase, it corresponds to less SWE in spring throughout most of Eurasia. Meanwhile, excessive SWE in some small areas of the Tibetan Plateau and East Asia, summer rainfall in South and Southeast China tends to be increased, whereas it would be decreased in the up-reaches of the Yellow River. In recent two decades, the decreased spring SWE in Eurasia may be one of reasons for severe droughts in North and Northeast China and much more significant rainfall events in South and Southeast China. The second SVD mode of the spring SWE variability shows opposite spatial variations in western and eastern Eurasia, while most of the Tibetan Plateau and East Asia are in phase. This mode significantly correlates with the succeeding summer rainfall in North and Northeast China, that is, less spring SWE in western Eurasia and excessive SWE in eastern Eurasia and the Tibetan Plateau tend to be associated with decreased summer rainfall in North and Northeast China.
Effects of a Building's Density on Flow in Urban Areas
Jae-Jin KIM, Do-Yong KIM
2009, 26(1): 45-56. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0045-9
The effects of a building's density on urban flows are investigated using a CFD model with the RNG k-ε turbulence closure scheme. Twenty-seven cases with different building's density parameters (e.g., building and street-canyon aspect ratios) are numerically simulated. As the building's density parameters vary, different flow regimes appear. When the street canyon is relatively narrow and high, two counter-rotating vortices in the vertical direction are generated. The wind speed along streets is mainly affected by the building's length. However, it is very difficult to find or generalize the characteristics of the street-canyon flows in terms of a single building's density parameter. This is because the complicated flow patterns appear due to the variation of the vortex structure and vortex number. Volume-averaged vorticity magnitude is a very good indicator to reflect the flow characteristics despite the strong dependency of flows on the variation of the building's density parameters. Multi-linear regression shows that the volume-averaged vorticity magnitude is a strong function of the building's length and the street-canyon width. The increase in the building's length decreases the vorticity of the street-canyon flow, while, the increase in the street-canyon width increases the vorticity.
A Modeling Study of the Effects of Direct Radiative Forcing Due to Carbonaceous Aerosol on the Climate in East Asia
ZHANG Hua, WANG Zhili, GUO Pinwen, WANG Zaizhi
2009, 26(1): 57-66. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0057-5
The study investigated the effects of global direct radiative forcing due to carbonaceous aerosol on the climate in East Asia, using the CAM3 developed by NCAR. The results showed that carbonaceous aerosols cause negative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface under clear sky conditions, but positive forcing at the TOA and weak negative forcing at the surface under all sky conditions. Hence, clouds could change the sign of the direct radiative forcing at the TOA, and weaken the forcing at the surface. Carbonaceous aerosols have distinct effects on the summer climate in East Asia. In southern China and India, it caused the surface temperature to increase, but the total cloud cover and precipitation to decrease. However, the opposite effects are caused for most of northern China and Bangladesh. Given the changes in temperature, vertical velocity, and surface streamflow caused by carbonaceous aerosol in this simulation, carbonaceous aerosol could also induce summer precipitation to decrease in southern China but increase in northern China.
Theoretical Basis and Application of an Analogue- Dynamical Model in the Lorenz System
REN Hongli, CHOU Jifan, HUANG Jianping, ZHANG Peiqun
2009, 26(1): 67-77. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0067-3
The theoretical basis and application of an analogue-dynamical model (ADM) in the Lorenz system is studied. The ADM can effectively combine statistical and dynamical methods in which the small disturbance of the current initial value superimposed on the historical analogue reference state can be regarded as a prediction objective. Primary analyses show that under the condition of appending disturbances in model parameters, the model errors of ADM are much smaller than those of the pure dynamical model (PDM). The characteristics of predictability on the ADM in the Lorenz system are analyzed in phase space by conducting case studies and global experiments. The results show that the ADM can quite effectively reduce prediction errors and prolong the valid time of the prediction in most situations in contrast to the PDM, but when model errors are considerably small, the latter will be superior to the former. To overcome such a problem, the multi-reference-state updating can be applied to introduce the information of multi-analogue and update analogue and can exhibit exciting performance in the ADM.
Synchronization of Radar Observations with Multi-Scale Storm Tracking
YANG Hongping, Jian ZHANG, Carrie LANGSTON
2009, 26(1): 78-86. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0078-0
The 3-D radar reflectivity data has become increasingly important for use in data assimilation towards convective scale numerical weather prediction as well as next generation precipitation estimation. Typically, reflectivity data from multiple radars are objectively analyzed and mosaiced onto a regional 3-D Cartesian grid prior to being assimilated into the models. One of the scientific issues associated with the mosaic of multi-radar observations is the synchronization of all the observations. Since radar data is usually rapidly updated (~every 5--10 min), it is common in current multi-radar mosaic techniques to combine multiple radar' observations within a time window by assuming that the storms are steady within the window. The assumption holds well for slow evolving precipitation systems, but for fast evolving convective storms, this assumption may be violated and the mosaic of radar observations at different times may result in inaccurate storm structure depictions. This study investigates the impact of synchronization on storm structures in multiple radar data analyses using a multi-scale storm tracking algorithm.
Sensitivity of the Carbon Storage of Potential Vegetation to Historical Climate Variability and CO2 in Continental China
MAO Jiafu, WANG Bin, DAI Yongjiu
2009, 26(1): 87-100. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0087-z
The interest in the national levels of the terrestrial carbon sink and its spatial and temporal variability with the climate and CO2 concentrations has been increasing. How the climate and the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the last century affect the carbon storage in continental China was investigated in this study by using the Modified Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (M-SDGVM). The estimates of the M-SDGVM indicated that during the past 100 years a combination of increasing CO2 with historical temperature and precipitation variability in continental China have caused the total vegetation carbon storage to increase by 2.04 Pg C, with 2.07 Pg C gained in the vegetation biomass but 0.03 Pg C lost from the organic soil carbon matter. The increasing CO2 concentration in the 20th century is primarily responsible for the increase of the total potential vegetation carbon. These factorial experiments show that temperature variability alone decreases the total carbon storage by 1.36 Pg C and precipitation variability alone causes a loss of 1.99 Pg C. The effect of the increasing CO2 concentration alone increased the total carbon storage in the potential vegetation of China by 3.22 Pg C over the past 100 years. With the changing of the climate, the CO2 fertilization on China's ecosystems is the result of the enhanced net biome production (NBP), which is caused by a greater stimulation of the gross primary production (GPP) than the total soil-vegetation respiration. Our study also shows notable interannual and decadal variations in the net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems in China due to the historical climate variability.
Linkage Between Mei-yu Precipitation and North Atlantic SST on the Decadal Timescale
GU Wei, LI Chongyin, WANG Xin, ZHOU Wen, LI Weijing
2009, 26(1): 101-108. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0101-5
This paper investigates the relationship between mei-yu and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). Results show that they are significantly associated with each other on the decadal timescale. Both mei-yu precipitation and mei-yu duration are characterized by significant decadal variability. Their decadal components are closely correlated with a triple mode of North Atlantic SSTA in the preceding winter. Regression analysis demonstrates that the wintertime North Atlantic SSTA may impose a delayed impact on East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) circulation and mei-yu on the decadal timescale. The persistency of SSTA plays an important role during this course. The triple SSTA mode can persist from winter until late spring. It is suggested that the springtime SSTA may excite a stationary wave-train propagating from west Eurasia to East Asia and exert an impact on mei-yu.
Interdecadal Change in Extreme Precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism
NING Liang, QIAN Yongfu
2009, 26(1): 109-118. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0109-x
Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961--2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months' extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.
Intercomparison of the Summertime Subtropical High from the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis over East Eurasia and the western North Pacific
ZHAO Tianbao, FU Congbin
2009, 26(1): 119-131. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0119-8
An intercomparison of summertime (JJA) subtropical geopotential heights from the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is specifically conducted over East Eurasia and the western North Pacific. The NCEP/NCAR is obviously lower than the ERA-40 in the mid-to-lower troposphere in most regions of East Eurasia before the mid-1970s, but becomes higher than the ERA-40 after the mid-1970s and thus demonstrates stronger increased trends during the period of 1958--2001. Both reanalyses are lower than the observations in most regions of China. The NCEP/NCAR especially shows tremendously systematic lower values before the mid-1960s and displays abrupt changes before the 1970s. Several indices of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), calculated from both reanalyzed summer geopotential heights, also reveal that the variation trend of the NCEP/NCAR is stronger than that of the ERA-40 in the mid-to-lower troposphere from 1958 to 2001. Through singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, the summer geopotential heights at 500 hPa from the ERA-40 are better than the NCEP/NCAR counterparts at interacting with the precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region. The results indicate that the NCEP/NCAR in the mid-and-lower troposphere may overestimate interdecadal changes and should be used cautiously to study the relationship between the WNPSH and precipitation ove ther East Asia Monsoon region before the mid-1970s.
The Structure and Evolution of Sea Breezes During the Qingdao Olympics Sailing Test Event in 2006
SHENG Chunyan, Ming XUE, GAO Shouting
2009, 26(1): 132-142. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0132-y
Using data from automatic surface weather stations, buoys, lidar and Doppler, the diurnal variation and the three-dimensional structure of the sea breezes near the sailing sites of the Good Luck Beijing---2006 Qingdao International Regatta from 18 to 31 August 2006 are analyzed. Results show that excluding rainy days and days affected by typhoon, the sea breezes occur nearly every day during this period. When Qingdao is located at the edge of the subtropical high at 500 hPa, the sea breeze is usually stronger, around 3--4 m s-1. It starts at around 1100 to 1300 LST and lasts about 6 hours. The direction of the sea breeze tends to be southeasterly. When Qingdao is under the control of the subtropical high, the sea breeze is usually weaker, less than 2.5 m s-1 throughout the day, and begins later, between 1300 and 1500 LST. In this case, the direction of the sea breeze is variable from easterly to southeasterly. Most sea breezes in Qingdao are very shallow, up to 300 meters deep. Strong sea breezes can reach 1.5 km in depth and can push as far as 100 km inland. If the Huanghai sea breeze moves inland and meets the sea breeze of the Jiaozhou Bay in the western part of Qingdao, the sea breeze will strengthen and form three boundaries due to the interaction of the two sea breezes.
Detection and Adjustment of Undocumented Discontinuities in Chinese Temperature Series Using a Composite Approach
LI Qingxiang, DONG Wenjie
2009, 26(1): 143-153. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0143-8
Annually averaged daily maximum and minimum surface temperatures from southeastern China were evaluated for artificial discontinuities using three different tests for undocumented changepoints. Changepoints in the time series were identified by comparing each target series to a reference calculated from values observed at a number of nearby stations. Under the assumption that no trend was present in the sequence of target-reference temperature differences, a changepoint was assigned to the target series when at least two of the three tests rejected the null hypothesis of no changepoint at approximately the same position in the difference series. Each target series then was adjusted using a procedure that accounts for discontinuities in average temperature values from nearby stations that otherwise could bias estimates of the magnitude of the target series step change. A spatial comparison of linear temperature trends in the adjusted annual temperature series suggests that major relative discontinuities were removed in the homogenization process. A greater number of relative change points were detected in annual average minimum than in average maximum temperature series. Some evidence is presented which suggests that minimum surface temperature fields may be more sensitive to changes in measurement practice than maximum temperature fields. In addition, given previous evidence of urban heat island (i.e., local) trends in this region, the assumption of no slope in a target-reference difference series is likely to be violated more frequently in minimum than in maximum temperature series. Consequently, there may be greater potential to confound trend and step changes in minimum temperature series.
An Adaptive Estimation of Forecast Error Covariance Parameters for Kalman Filtering Data Assimilation
Xiaogu ZHENG
2009, 26(1): 154-160. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0154-5
An adaptive estimation of forecast error covariance matrices is proposed for Kalman filtering data assimilation. A forecast error covariance matrix is initially estimated using an ensemble of perturbation forecasts. This initially estimated matrix is then adjusted with scale parameters that are adaptively estimated by minimizing -2log-likelihood of observed-minus-forecast residuals. The proposed approach could be applied to Kalman filtering data assimilation with imperfect models when the model error statistics are not known. A simple nonlinear model (Burgers' equation model) is used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.
A Study on Parameterization of Surface Albedo over Grassland Surface in the Northern Tibetan Plateau
LI Ying, HU Zeyong
2009, 26(1): 161-168. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0161-6
The relationship of surface albedo with the solar altitude angle and soil moisture is analyzed based on two-year (January 2002 to December 2003) observational data from the AWS (Automatic Weather Station) at MS3478 in the northern Tibetan Plateau during the experimental period of CEOP/CAMP-Tibet (Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period Asia-Australia Monsoon Project on the Tibetan Plateau). As a double-variable (solar altitude angle and soil moisture) function, surface albedo varies inconspicuously with any single factor. By using the method of approximately separating the double-variable function into two, one-factor functions (product and addition), the relationship of albedo with these two factors presents much better. The product and additional empirical formulae of albedo are then preliminarily fitted based on long-term experimental data. By comparison with observed values, it is found that the parameterization formulae fitted by using observational data are mostly reliable and their correlation coefficients are both over 0.6. The empirical formulae of albedo though, for the northern Tibetan Plateau, need to be tested by much more representative observational data with the help of numerical models and the retrieval of remote sensing data. It is practical until it is changed into effective parameterization formulae representing a grid scale in models.
The Relationship of Land-Ocean Thermal Anomaly Difference with Mei-yu and South China Sea Summer Monsoon
WANG Zhifu, QIAN Yongfu
2009, 26(1): 169-179. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0169-y
Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1948--2004 and the monthly rainfall data at 160 stations in China from 1951 to 2004, the relationships among the land-ocean temperature anomaly difference in the mid-lower troposphere in spring (April--May), the mei-yu rainfall in the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basin, and the activities of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) are analyzed by using correlation and composite analyses. Results show that a significant positive correlation exists between mei-yu rainfall and air temperature in the middle latitudes above the western Pacific, while a significant negative correlation is located to the southwest of the Baikal Lake. When the land-ocean thermal anomaly difference is stronger in spring, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) will be weaker and retreat eastward in summer (June--July), and the SCSSM will be stronger and advance further north, resulting in deficient moisture along the mei-yu front and below-normal precipitation in the mid and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and vice versa for the weaker difference case. The effects and relative importance of the land and ocean anomalous heating on monsoon variability is also compared. It is found that the land and ocean thermal anomalies are both closely related to the summer circulation and mei-yu rainfall and SCSSM intensity, whereas the land heating anomaly is more important than ocean heating in changing the land-ocean thermal contrast and hence the summer monsoon intensity.
The Characteristics and Parameterization of Aerodynamic Roughness Length over Heterogeneous Surfaces
LU Li, LIU Shaomin, XU Ziwei, YANG Kun, CAI Xuhui, JIA Li, WANG Jiemin
2009, 26(1): 180-190. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0180-3
Aerodynamic roughness length (z0m is a key factor in surface flux estimations with remote sensing algorithms and/or land surface models. This paper calculates z0m over several land surfaces, with 3 years of experimental data from Xiaotangshan. The results show that z0m is direction-dependent, mainly due to the heterogeneity of the size and spatial distribution of the roughness elements inside the source area along different wind directions. Furthermore, a heuristic parameterization of the aerodynamic roughness length for heterogeneous surfaces is proposed. Individual z0m over each surface component (patch) is calculated firstly with the characteristic parameters of the roughness elements (vegetation height, leaf area index, etc.), then z0m over the whole experimental field is aggregated, using the footprint weighting method.