Prediction of Typhoon Tracks Using Dynamic Linear Models

This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models havetheir own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statisticalmodel called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis oftyphoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive modelfor the prediction of typhoon tracks.