Jiale Hu, Jianxiang Xu, Jing-Jia Luo, Jiaqing Xue, Yujie Nie, Da Zhi. 2024: Sub-seasonal Forecast of Global Marine Heatwaves Based on NUIST CFS1.1. Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4280-x
Citation: Jiale Hu, Jianxiang Xu, Jing-Jia Luo, Jiaqing Xue, Yujie Nie, Da Zhi. 2024: Sub-seasonal Forecast of Global Marine Heatwaves Based on NUIST CFS1.1. Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4280-x

Sub-seasonal Forecast of Global Marine Heatwaves Based on NUIST CFS1.1

  • Marine heatwaves (MHWs), which can exert devasting impacts on the ecosystem and socio-economy, have attracted much public interest in recent years. In this study, we evaluate sub-seasonal forecast skill of MHWs based on the Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.1 (NUIST CFS1.1) and analyzes the related physical processes. Our results show that, out to the lead time of 25 days, the model can accurately forecast the occurrence of MHWs globally. Notably, even at lead times of 51-55 days, the forecast skill in most tropical regions, as well as in the northeastern and southeastern Pacific, is superior to random forecasts. Accurate predictions of sea level pressure, zonal currents, and mixed layer depth are important for the MHWs forecasting. Furthermore, we also conduct forecast skill assessment for two well-noticed MHW events. Due to correct forecast of the changes in heat flux anomalies at lead time of 25 days, the model accurately forecasts the strong MHW event in the South China Sea in May-October 2020. Meanwhile, although the model accurately forecasts the occurrence of the strong MHW event along Australia west coast in January-April 2011, forecast of this heatwave’s intensity is poor. However, forecasts of the relevant physical processes of this MHW event were inaccurate when lead time exceeds 10 days.
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