Zuo, J. Q., J. S. Cao, L. J. Chen, Y. Nie, D. Q. Zhang, A. A. Scaife, N. J. Dunstone, and S. C. Hardiman, 2025: Predictability of the summer 2022 Yangtze River valley heatwave in multiple seasonal forecast systems. Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4304-6.
Citation: Zuo, J. Q., J. S. Cao, L. J. Chen, Y. Nie, D. Q. Zhang, A. A. Scaife, N. J. Dunstone, and S. C. Hardiman, 2025: Predictability of the summer 2022 Yangtze River valley heatwave in multiple seasonal forecast systems. Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4304-6.

Predictability of the Summer 2022 Yangtze River Valley Heatwave in Multiple Seasonal Forecast Systems

  • The Yangtze River Valley (YRV) of China experienced record-breaking heatwaves in July and August 2022. The characteristics, causes, and impacts of this extreme event have been widely explored, but its seasonal predictability remains elusive. This study assessed the real-time one-month-lead prediction skill of the summer 2022 YRV heatwaves using 12 operational seasonal forecast systems. Results indicate that most individual forecast systems and their multi-model ensemble (MME) mean exhibited limited skill in predicting the 2022 YRV heatwaves. Notably, after the removal of the linear trend, the predicted 2-m air temperature anomalies were generally negative in the YRV, except for the Met Office GloSea6 system, which captured a moderate warm anomaly. While the models successfully simulated the influence of La Niña on the East Asian–western North Pacific atmospheric circulation and associated YRV temperature anomalies, only GloSea6 reasonably captured the observed relationship between the YRV heatwaves and an atmospheric teleconnection extending from the North Atlantic to the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes. Such an atmospheric teleconnection plays a crucial role in intensifying the YRV heatwaves. In contrast, other seasonal forecast systems and the MME predicted a distinctly different atmospheric circulation pattern, particularly over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes, and failed to reproduce the observed relationship between the YRV heatwaves and Eurasian mid-to-high latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. These findings underscore the importance of accurately representing the Eurasian mid-to-high latitude atmospheric teleconnection for successful YRV heatwave prediction.
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