Wanyi Sun, Congwen Zhu, Boqi Liu, Yuhan Yan, Zhiqi YAN. 2024: Phase- and Amplitude-Locking of Annual Maximum Rainfall Events in North China with Annual Cycle of East Asian Summer Monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4308-2
Citation: Wanyi Sun, Congwen Zhu, Boqi Liu, Yuhan Yan, Zhiqi YAN. 2024: Phase- and Amplitude-Locking of Annual Maximum Rainfall Events in North China with Annual Cycle of East Asian Summer Monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4308-2

Phase- and Amplitude-Locking of Annual Maximum Rainfall Events in North China with Annual Cycle of East Asian Summer Monsoon

  • The annual maximum rainfall event (AMRE), is referred to as the maximum consecutive 5-day rainfall in a year, which account for 15–80% of total summer (June–August) rainfall amount in North China, showing a great challenge in subseasonal to seasonal forecast. Based on data analyses during 1979–2023, this study shows the interannual variability of AMRE is significantly influenced by the phase and amplitude mode of annual cycle of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), featured by two orthogonal seasonal patterns of southeasterly winds at 850 hPa over the northwestern Pacific. The EASM phase-locked AMRE shows heavy rainfall events occurring extreme early and late in Beijing surrounding areas, corresponding to the peak southeasterly wind anomalies in June and August. The EASM amplitude-locked AMRE exhibits extreme heavy or light rainfall over southwest areas with normal phase. Therefore, the AMRE has a potential predictability on seasonal time scale due to its phase-locking with the slowly variation of annual cycle of EASM.
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