Global Fire Emissions Linked to Madden–Julian Oscillation

Understanding the relationship between fire activity and climate variability is a major concern for the scientific community and is essential for reducing economic losses and life-threatening fire hazards. However, the drivers of fire activity and the influence of climate variability remain uncertain. Here, we show that the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)—a dominant tropical subseasonal variability—influences fire activity by modulating local fire-supporting weather through atmospheric teleconnections. Our results show that midlatitude fire emissions exhibit significant subseasonal variability, with MJO-related weather influencing the fire intensity and contributing to large fire events. MJO-related fire events account for about 10%–20% of total midlatitude fire events, suggesting that if MJO teleconnections strengthen in the future, fire emissions and associated economic losses could worsen.