Asian Monsoon Climate Prediction

Article type: Research Highlight, regarding review by Prof Bin Wang (University of Hawaii) “Advancing Asian Monsoon Climate Prediction under Global Change: Progresses, Challenges, and Outlook”. Advances in theory, observations, and modeling have greatly improved Asian summer monsoon (ASM) prediction since its potential was first recognized in the 19th century. ENSO remains the dominant source of predictability, though its regional impacts vary and have evolved under global warming. Additional contributors include the Indian Ocean Dipole, land–atmosphere processes, Atlantic variability, and high-latitude influences. While coupled models and hybrid approaches show skill for the Indian monsoon, prediction of the East Asian Summer Monsoon remains difficult due to its complex evolution and sensitivity to the western Pacific subtropical high. Model biases, parameterization uncertainties, and non-stationary predictors further constrain progress. The review by Wang et al. (2025) highlights emerging directions: applying artificial intelligence, improving prediction of extremes, and advancing subseasonal forecasts. Strengthened observations, refined models, and international collaboration will be essential to deliver more reliable forecasts for the billions living in monsoon regions.