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Assimilation of the FY-4A AGRI Clear-Sky Radiance Data in a Regional Numerical Model and its Impact on the Forecast of the “7·20” Severe Rainstorm in Henan

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This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant numbers 2017YFC1501803 and 2017YFC1502102].


doi:  10.1007/s00376-022-1380-3

  • Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager (AGRI) clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed, and the forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor (WV) channels with conventional observations for the severe rainstorm event of "7·20" in Henan is analyzed and compared with a benchmark test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study. The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition of the AGRI exceeds 500 mm, which is close to a maximum value of 532.6 mm measured by the national meteorological stations, and the location of the maximum precipitation is consistent with the observations. The results for the short periods of intense precipitation processes found that the simulation of the location and intensity of the 3-h cumulative precipitation is also relatively accurate. The analysis increment shows that the main difference between the two sets of assimilation experiments is over the ocean due to the additional ocean observations provided by FY-4A, which compensates for the lack of ocean observations. The assimilation of satellite data adjusts the vertical and horizontal wind fields over the ocean by adjusting the atmospheric temperature and humidity, which ultimately results in a narrower and stronger WV transport path to the center of heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou in the lower troposphere. Conversely, the WV convergence and upward motion in the control experiment are more dispersed; therefore, the precipitation centers are also correspondingly more dispersed.
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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 27 September 2021
Manuscript revised: 23 December 2021
Manuscript accepted: 14 January 2022
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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Assimilation of the FY-4A AGRI Clear-Sky Radiance Data in a Regional Numerical Model and its Impact on the Forecast of the “7·20” Severe Rainstorm in Henan

Abstract: Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager (AGRI) clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed, and the forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor (WV) channels with conventional observations for the severe rainstorm event of "7·20" in Henan is analyzed and compared with a benchmark test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study. The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition of the AGRI exceeds 500 mm, which is close to a maximum value of 532.6 mm measured by the national meteorological stations, and the location of the maximum precipitation is consistent with the observations. The results for the short periods of intense precipitation processes found that the simulation of the location and intensity of the 3-h cumulative precipitation is also relatively accurate. The analysis increment shows that the main difference between the two sets of assimilation experiments is over the ocean due to the additional ocean observations provided by FY-4A, which compensates for the lack of ocean observations. The assimilation of satellite data adjusts the vertical and horizontal wind fields over the ocean by adjusting the atmospheric temperature and humidity, which ultimately results in a narrower and stronger WV transport path to the center of heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou in the lower troposphere. Conversely, the WV convergence and upward motion in the control experiment are more dispersed; therefore, the precipitation centers are also correspondingly more dispersed.

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