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The Climate Response to Global Forest Area Changes under Different Warming Scenarios in China


doi:  10.1007/s00376-022-2230-z

  • Human activities have notably affected the Earth’s climate through greenhouse gases emissions and land use/land cover change (LULCC). To investigate the impact of forest changes on regional climate under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), we analyzed changes in surface air temperature and precipitation in China under low and medium/high radiative forcing scenarios from 2021 to 2099, using multi-model climate simulations from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Results show that the climate responses to forest changes are more significant under the low radiative forcing scenario. Deforestation would increase the mean, interannual variability, and the trend of surface air temperature under the low radiative forcing scenario, while decreasing those indices under the medium/high radiative forcing scenario. The changes in temperature show significant spatial heterogeneity. For precipitation, under the low radiative forcing scenario, deforestation would lead to a significant increase in northern China and a significant decrease in southern China, respectively, and the effects are persistent in the near-term (2021-2040), middle-term (2041-2070) and long-term (2071-2099). In contrast, under the medium/high radiative forcing scenario, precipitation increases in the near-term and long-term over most parts of China, while decreases in the middle-term, especially in southern, northern and northeast China. The magnitude of precipitation response to deforestation remain comparatively small.
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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 19 September 2022
Manuscript revised: 03 November 2022
Manuscript accepted: 21 November 2022
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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The Climate Response to Global Forest Area Changes under Different Warming Scenarios in China

Abstract: Human activities have notably affected the Earth’s climate through greenhouse gases emissions and land use/land cover change (LULCC). To investigate the impact of forest changes on regional climate under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), we analyzed changes in surface air temperature and precipitation in China under low and medium/high radiative forcing scenarios from 2021 to 2099, using multi-model climate simulations from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Results show that the climate responses to forest changes are more significant under the low radiative forcing scenario. Deforestation would increase the mean, interannual variability, and the trend of surface air temperature under the low radiative forcing scenario, while decreasing those indices under the medium/high radiative forcing scenario. The changes in temperature show significant spatial heterogeneity. For precipitation, under the low radiative forcing scenario, deforestation would lead to a significant increase in northern China and a significant decrease in southern China, respectively, and the effects are persistent in the near-term (2021-2040), middle-term (2041-2070) and long-term (2071-2099). In contrast, under the medium/high radiative forcing scenario, precipitation increases in the near-term and long-term over most parts of China, while decreases in the middle-term, especially in southern, northern and northeast China. The magnitude of precipitation response to deforestation remain comparatively small.

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