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2001 Vol. 18, No. 5

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Climate Changes in the 21st Century over the Asia-Pacific Region Simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM
Aiguo Dai, G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, T.M.L. Wigley
2001, 18(5): 639-658.
The Climate System Model (CSM) and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), two coupled global climate models without flux adjustments recently developed at NCAR, were used to simulate the 20th century climate using historical greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. These simulations were extended through the 21st century under two newly developed scenarios, a business-as-usual case (BAU, CO2710 ppmv in 2100) and a CO2 stabilization case (STA550, CO2540 ppmv in 2100). The simulated changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture over the Asia-Pacific region (10-60N, 55-155E) are analyzed, with a focus on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and climate changes over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Under the BAU scenario, both the models produce surface warming of about 3-5℃ in winter and 2-3℃ in summer over most Asia. Under the STA550 scenario, the warming is reduced by 0.5-1.0℃ in winter and by 0.5℃ in summer. The warming is fairly uniform at the low latitudes and does not induce significant changes in the zonal mean Hadley circulation over the Asia-Pacific do main. While the regional precipitation changes from single CSM integrations are noisy, the PCM ensemble mean precipitation shows 10%-30% increases north of ~ 30N and ~ 10% decreases south of ~ 30N over the Asia-Pacific region in winter and 10%-20% increases in summer precipitation over most of the region. Soil moisture changes are small over most Asia. The CSM single simulation suggests a 30% increase in river runoff into the Three Gorges Dam, but the PCM ensemble simulations show small changes in the runoff.
EAWM-Related Air-Sea-Land Interaction and the Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation
Bueh Cholaw, Ji Liren, Sun Shuqing, Cui Maochang
2001, 18(5): 659-673.
Based on the data analysis, this study further explores the characteristics of East Asian winter monsoon (hereafter, EAWM, for brevity) as well as the related air-sea-land system, and illustrates how and to what degree anomalous signals of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon are rooted in the preceding EAWM ac tivity. We identified an important air-sea coupled mode, i.e., the EAWM mode illustrated in Section 3. In cold seasons, strong EAWM-reiated air-sea two-way interaction is responsible for the development and persistence of the SSTA pattern of EAWM mode. As a consequence, the key regions, i.e., the western Pacific and South China Sea (hereafter, SCS, for brevity), are dominated by such an SSTA pattern from the winter to the following summer. In the strong EAWM years, the deficient snow cover dominates eastern Tibetan Plateau in winter, and in spring, this anomaly pattern is further strengthened and extended to the northwestern side of Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the combined effect of strong EAWM-related SSTA and Tibetan snow cover constitutes an important factor in modulating the Asian monsoon circulation. The ac tive role of the EAWM activity as well as the related air-sea-land interaction would, in the subsequent sea sons, lead to: 1) the enhancement of SCS monsoon and related stronger rainfall; 2) the northward displace ment of subtropical high during Meiyu period and the related deficient rainfall over Meiyu rainband; 3) above-normal precipitation over the regions from northern Japan to northeastern China in summer; 4) more rainfall over the Arabian Sea and Northeast India, while less rainfall over southwest India and the Bay of Bengal. The strong EAWM-related air-sea interaction shows, to some degree, precursory signals to the following Asian summer monsoon. However, the mechanism for the variability of Indian summer monsoon subsequent to the strong EAWM years remains uncertain.
On the ENSO Mechanisms
Chunzai Wang
2001, 18(5): 674-691.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Paci fic Ocean-atmosphere interactions. The oscillatory nature of ENSO requires both positive and negative ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. The positive feedback is dated back to Bjerknes' hypothesis in the 1960s, and different negative feedbacks have been proposed since the 1980s associated with the delayed oscillator, the western Pacific oscillator, the recharge-discharge oscillator, and the advective-reflective oscillator. The de layed oscillator assumes that wave reflection at the western boundary provides a negative feedback for the coupled system to oscillate. The western Pacific oscillator emphasizes equatorial wind in the western Pacific that provides a negative feedback for the coupled system. The recharge-discharge oscillator argues that discharge and recharge of equatorial heat content cause the coupled system to oscillate. The advective-re flective oscillator emphasizes the importance of zonal advection associated with wave reflection at both the western and eastern boundaries. All of these physics are summarized in a unified ENSO oscillator. The de layed oscillator, the western Pacific oscillator, the recharge-discharge oscillator, and the advective-reflec tive oscillator can be extracted as special cases of the unified oscillator. As suggested by this unified oscillator, all of the previous ENSO oscillator mechanisms may be operating in nature.
The Relationship between the Meridional Profile of Zonal mean Geostrophic Wind and Station Wave at 500 hPa
Fang Zhifang, John M. Wallace, David W. J. Thompson
2001, 18(5): 692-700.
The sea-level pressure (SLP), 500 hPa height, zonal-mean 500 hPa height ([Z500]), stationary wave ed dy component of the 500 hPa height (Z*500) and zonal-mean 500 hPa geostrophic wind [Ug ] fields poleward of 20N are examined for the period 1958-1997, with emphasis on the winter season. The relationships be tween the Arctic Oscillation (AO)index and algebraic difference of the zonal-mean wind in 55N and 35N (Ut) index were investigated, making use the Monte Carlo procedure, Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and regression method. The leading modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF's) of SLP are more robust than the 500 hPa height EOF's, not only in the ratio of the two largest eigenvalues, but in more zonally symmetric. Comparing the meridional profiles of zonal-mean wind amplitude associated with the AO and Ut index, the profiles for the two indexes are very similar, both with respect to amplitude and the placement of the maximum and minimum. Comparing the station wave component of 500 hPa height field regressed upon the AO and Ut index, there is one-to-one correspondence between all the major centers of action in the two maps, especially in the North Atlantic and Eurasian continent. The pattern is unlike the prominent teleconnection patterns, they have hemispheric ex tent and cannot be interpreted in term of the individual wavetrains.
Prediction of Precipitation during Summer Monsoon with Self-memorial Model
Feng Guolin, Cao Hongxing, Gao Xinquan, Dong Wenjie, Chou Jifan
2001, 18(5): 701-709.
In view of the fact that the atmospheric motion is an irreversible process, a memory function which can recall the observation data in the past is introduced, moreover, a special concept of self-memorization of the atmospheric motion is proposed, and a so-called self-memorization equation of the atmospheric motion has been derived. Based on the self-memorization principle, a numerical model for decadal forecast is estab lished by means of the thermodynamic equation and the precipitation equation. The verification scores of the hindcasts of the model in the period from 1 to 12 years are much higher than that of monthly weather forecasts at present.
Preliminary Evaluation of a Revised Zhang-McFarlane Convection Scheme Using the NCAR CCM3 GCM
Guang J. Zhang, Guo Mingming
2001, 18(5): 710-717.
This study investigates the interaction between convection, clouds, and the large-scale circulation. By examining the sensitivity of the large-scale fields to a modification of the convective parameterization scheme in the NCAR CCM3, we show that the convective parameterization has a strong impact on the tem poral characteristics of the large-scale circulation and clouds. When Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in the atmosphere is used to close the convective parameterization, the simulated convection is con tinuous, and lacks the observed intermittence. When the CAPE change due to the large-scale forcing in the free troposphere is used, the simulated temporal behavior of convection is in much better agreement with the observations. We attribute this improvement to the enhanced coupling between convection and the large-scale forcing in the convective parameterization.
Climate Change and Its Impact on Water Resources in North China
Gao Ge, Huang Chaoying
2001, 18(5): 718-732. doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0036-y
In the context of climate, water resources and areas of farmland suffered from drought and flood data, features and changes of climate and water resources as well as correlation between them are analyzed for the past 50 years in North China. Assessment models of water resources are developed. Impacts of extreme cli mate events on water resources and impacts of drought and flood on agriculture are further studied. In the end, possible impacts of climate change in coming years are discussed on the basis of climate model simulation. Countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for realizing water resources sustainable utilization.
Effects of Topographic Slopes on Hydrological Proecsses and Climate
Jinliang Liu, Han-Ru Cho
2001, 18(5): 733-741.
Based on previous research results on river re-distribution models, a modification on the effects of topographic slopes for a runoff parameterization was proposed and implemented to the NCAR's land sur face model (LSM). This modification has two aspects: firstly, the topographic slopes cause outflows from higher topography and inflows into the lower topography points; secondly, topographic slopes also cause decrease of infiltration at higher topography and increases of infiltration at lower topography. Then changes in infiltration result in changes in soil moisture, surface fluxes and then in surface temperature, and eventual ly in the upper atmosphere and the climate. This mechanism is very clearly demonstrated in the point bud gets analysis at the Andes Mountains vicinities. Analysis from a regional scale perspective in the Mackenzie GEWEX Study (MAGS) area, the focus of the ongoing Canadian GEWEX program, shows that the modi fied runoff parameterization does bring significant changes in the regional surface climate. More important ly, detailed analysis from a global perspective shows many encouraging improvements introduced by the modified LSM over the original model in simulating basic atmospheric climate properties such as thermodynamic features (temperature and humidity). All of these improvements in the atmospheric climate simulation illustrate that the inclusion of topographic effects in the LSM can force the AGCM to produce a more realistic model climate.
Trends in Extremes of Surface Humidity, Temperature, and Summertime Heat Stress in China
Julian X.L. Wang, Dian J. Gaffen
2001, 18(5): 742-751.
In the past half century, the mean summertime temperature in China has increased, with nights warm ing more than days. Using surface station observations, we show that the frequency of extreme heat-stress events in China, caused by extremely hot and humid days as well as by heatwaves lasting for a few days, has increased over the period from 1951 to 1994. When humidity is high, hot weather can cause heat stress in humans. The increased heat-stress trend may pose a public health problem.
Water Vapor Variability in the Tropical Western Pacific from 20-year Radiosonde Data
Junhong Wang, Harold L. Cole, David J. Carlson
2001, 18(5): 752-766.
The 20-year (1976-1995) daily radiosonde data at 17 stations in the tropical western Pacific was ana lyzed. The analysis shows that the atmosphere is more humid in a warmer climate on seasonal, inter-annual and long-term (20-year) time scales, implying a positive water vapor feedback. The vertical structure of the long-term trends in relative humidity (RH) is distinct from that on short-term (seasonal and inter-annual) time scales, suggesting that observed water vapor changes on short time scales could not be considered as a surrogate of long-term climate change. The increasing trend of RH (3%-5%/decade) in the upper troposphere is stronger than that in the lower troposphere (1%-2% / decade). Such vertical structure would amplify positive water vapor feedback in comparison to the common assumption of constant RH changes vertically. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of vertical structure of RH variations shows distinct features of the vertical structure of the first three EOFs. The first three EOFs are optimal for repre sentation of water vapor profiles and provide some hints on physical mechanisms responsible for observed humidity variability. Vaisala radiosondes were used at nine stations, and VIZ radiosondes used at other eight stations. The Vaisala data are corrected for temperature-dependence error using the correction scheme developed by NCAR / ATD and Vaisala. The comparison of Vaisala and VIZ data shows that the VIZ-measured RHs after October 1993 have a moist bias of ~ 10% at RHs < 20%. During 1976-1995, several changes in cluding both instruments and reporting practice have been made at Vaisala stations and introduce errors to long-term RH variations.
Assimilation of Satellite Altimetry into a Western North Pacific Operational Model
Masafumi Kamachi, Tsurane Kuragano, Noriya Yoshioka, Jiang Zhu, Francesco Uboldi
2001, 18(5): 767-786.
An ocean data assimilation system, COMPASS-K (the Comprehensive Ocean Modeling, Prediction, Analysis and Synthesis System in the Kuroshio-region), has been developed at the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The purposes of the development are understanding ocean variability in the Kuroshio re gion as a local response to a global climate change with assimilated four-dimensional data sets, develop ment of an operational system in the Japan Meteorological Agency, and for the GODAE (Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment) project. The model is an eddy permitting version of an MRI-OGCM. Space-time decorrelation scales of ocean variability are estimated with TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter data. Subsurface temperature and salinity fields are projected from the T / P altimeter data with a statistical correlation method and are assim ilated into the model with a time-retrospective nudging scheme. Seasonal variation in the western North Pacific is investigated. Realistic space-time distribution of the physical quantities, the path of Kuroshio and its separation from Honshu are captured well. The Kuroshio volume transport is well reproduced in a reanalysis experiment of 1993. Preliminary predictability experi ments are done in February and March, 1994. Predictability diagram shows the time scale of the predictability for temperature field is about 17 days in the Kuroshio south of Japan. This time scale is smal ler than that in the North Atlantic.
Multi-scale Fractal Characteristics of Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Turbulence
Li Xin, Hu Fei, Liu Gang, Hong Zhongxiang
2001, 18(5): 787-792.
The turbulence data are decomposed to multi-scales and its respective fractal dimensions are computed. The conclusions are drawn from investigating the variation of fractal dimensions. With the level of decomposition increasing, the low-frequency part extracted from the turbulence signals tends to be sim ple and smooth, the dimensions decrease; the high-frequency part shows complex, the dimensions are fixed, about 1.70 on the average, which indicates clear serf-similarity characteristics.
Impacts of Diurnal Cycle of SST on the Intraseasonal Variation of Surface Heat Flux over the Western PacificWarm Pool
Li Wei, Yu Rucong, Liu Hailong, Yu Yongqiang
2001, 18(5): 793-806.
Based on the method of estimating the diurnal amplitude of sea surface temperature (SST) as a function of daily averaged wind speed, precipitation and peak surface radiation, a parameterization scheme of diurnal cycle of SST is developed in the present study. Integrations to National Center for Atmospheric Re search (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM3), separately forced by observed weekly SSTs with and without diurnal cycle of SST, are compared. Surface observation obtained from the Improved Meteorology (IMET) buoy during TOGA COARE Intensive Observation Period is applied to verify the SST parameterization, as well as a validation to the results from the CCM3 simulation. It is shown that the superposition of diurnal cycle of SST to the forced weekly SST makes a more realistic representation of the surface structure of intrascasonal oscillation over the western Pacific warm pool.
Model Estimates of Global Carbon Flux between Vegetation and the Atmosphere
Li Yinpeng, Ji Jinjun
2001, 18(5): 807-818.
The net primary productivity (NPP) of global terrestrial vegetation is estimated by an Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model (AVIM). AVIM consists of two intercoupled components: phys ical processes, involving water and energy transfer among soil, vegetation and the atmosphere at the land surface and eco-physiological processes, ie. photosynthesis, respiration, dry matter allocation, littering, phenology. Globally vegetation is classified into 13 types and soil texture is classified into 6 types. The esti mated NPP for different vegetation types at 1637 sites are validated with the observed data provided by EMDI. The main results of NPP estimation show that global averaged NPP is 405.13 g C m-2yr-1 varying from 99.58 g C m-2yr-1 (tundra) to 996.2 g m-2yr-1 (rainforest). Global total annual NPP is about 60.72Gt Cyr-1, in which the maximum part, about 15.84 Gt C yr-1, accounting for 26.09% of the total is contributed by tropical rainforest. The maximum carbon sink occurs in the temperate region of the Northern Hemi sphere. The global spatial and seasonal distribution of terrestrial NPP is estimated reasonably.
On the Formation and Maintenance of the Persistent Anomalies of Summertime Circulation over the Ural Mountains
Li Shuanglin, Ji Liren, Lin Wantao
2001, 18(5): 819-830.
The formation and maintenance of the persistent anomalies (PA hereafter) of summertime circulation over the Ural Mountains are studied, and a two-way interaction of transient eddies and time-mean flow that may be involved in the evolution of the positive anomaly is demonstrated. Firstly the feature of synoptic-scale transient activity during the PA period is investigated based on composite, and the results suggest a significant enhancement of transient activity over the sector from the central North Atlantic to the coastal western Europe for the positive cases whereas a weakening is for the negative. Numerical simulations are conducted using a barotropic primitive equation model linearized about two time-mean flows, the com posite of positive cases and the climatological July mean respectively. The results show that the enhanced transient activity upstream will favor positive height anomalies over the Ural Mountains. A barotropic stormtrack model is developed, by which the role of time-mean flow in organization and modulation of transient eddies is studied. It is shown that the growth of ridge over the Ural Mountains tends to organize transient eddies into the region upstream from the central North Atlantic to the coastal western Europe. Combining the two aspects, a positive feedback mechanism through two-direction interaction of transient eddies and basic flow is proposed, which can be responsible for the formation and maintenance of the per sistent positive anomalies over the Ural Mountains.
The Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on Atmospheric Circulation and Climate
Li Chongyin, Mu Mingquan
2001, 18(5): 831-843.
The SST variation in the equatorial Indian Ocean is studied with special interest in analyzing its dipole oscillation feature. The dipole oscillation appears to be stronger in September-November and weaker in January-April with higher SST in the west region and lower SST in the east region as the positive phase and higher SST in the east region and lower SST in the west region as the negative phase. Generally, the amplitude of the positive phase is larger than the negative phase. The interannual variation (4-5 year period) and the interdecadal variation (25-30 year period) also exist in the dipole. The analyses also showed the significant impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Asian monsoon activity, because the lower tropospheric wind fields over the Southern Asia, the Tibetan high in the upper troposphere and the subtropical high over the northwestern Pacific are all related to the Indian Ocean dipole. On the other, the Indian Ocean dipole still has significant impact on atmospheric circulation and climate in North America and the southern Indian Ocean region (including Australia and South Africa).
Empirical-Statistical Methodology and Methods for Modeling and Forecasting of Climate Variability of Different Temporal Scales
Vladimir A. Lobanov
2001, 18(5): 844-863.
Main problem of modern climatology is to assess the present as well as future climate change. For this aim two approaches are used: physic-mathematic modeling on the basis of GCMs and palaeoclimatic analogues. The third approach is based on the empirical-statistical methodology and is developed in this paper. This ap proach allows to decide two main problems: to give a real assessment of climate changes by observed data for climate monitoring and extrapolation of obtained climate tendencies to the nearest future (10-15 years) and give the empiricai basis for further development of physic-mathematicai models. The basic theory and methodology of empirical-statistic approach have been developed as well as a common model for description of space-time climate variatiom taking into account the processes of different time scales. The way of decreasing of the present and future uncertainty is suggested as the extraction of long-term climate changes components in the particular time series and spatial generalization of the same climate tendencies in the obtained homogeneous regions. Algorithm and methods for realization of empirical-statistic methodology have been developed along with methods for generalization of intraannual fluctuations, methods for extraction of homogeneous components of different time scales (interannual, decadal, century), methodology and methods for spatial generalization and modeling, methods for extrapolation on the basis of two main kinds of time models: stochastic and deterministic--stochastic. Some applications of developed methodology and methods are given for the longest time series of temperature and precipitation over the world and for spatial generalization over the European area.
Local Meridional Circulation and Deserts
Liu Ping, Wu Guoxiong, Sun Shufen
2001, 18(5): 864-872.
This paper investigates the dry climatology of Sahara and Northwest China deserts from the viewpoint of local meridional circulation with Xie and Arkin rainfall dada and NCAR / NCEP reanalysis data. Re sults show that there are very dry centers with annual rainfall less than 50 mm over these two deserts while the rainy seasons are very different. In the south part of Sahara desert center and Northwest China desert, over 70% rainfall takes place in June, July and August (JJA). While in the north part of Sahara, rainfall mainly concentrates in December, January and February (DJF). The local biosphere-radiation mechanism proposed by Charney cannot explain the climatology of such very dry centers. Neither can the monsoon-de sert mechanism proposed by Rodwell and Hoskins do for the strongest descent center is much more north ward than the driest center over Sahara in JJA. From the viewpoint of local meridional circulation, the dry ness climatology of Sahara and Northwest China deserts is investigated and compared. It is shown that in DJF, descent of local meridional circulation dominates the two deserts and very dry climate is unavoidable although the relative wet season is weak over the northern part of Sahara due to Mediterranean climate. While in JJA, there is ascent over the two deserts especially over Northwest China. Such ascent can explain the rainy season in south part of Sahara and Northwest China deserts. However, it is the local meridional circulation that takes strong and dry northerly from higher latitudes. The northerly either takes little mois ture to the centers or prevents deep and strong convection over the centers. Such local meridional circulation leads to the dry climatology over the two deserts.
Short-range Climate Prediction Experiment of the Southern Oscillation Index Based on the Singular Spectrum Analysis
Liu Jianwen, Dong Peiming
2001, 18(5): 873-881.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) time series is analyzed by means of the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method with 60-month window length. Two major oscillatory pairs are found in the series whose pe riods are quasi-four and quasi-two years respectively. The auto-regressive model, which is developed on the basis of the Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analy sis, is fitted to each of the 9 leading components including the oscillatory pairs. The prediction of SOI with the 36-month lead is obtained from the reconstruction of these extrapolated series. Correlation coefficient between predicted series and 5 months running mean of observed series is up to 0.8. The model can successfully predict the peak and duration of the strong ENSO event from 1997 to 1998. It's also shown that the proper choice of reconstructed components is the key to improve the model prediction.
The Heat Balance in the Western Equatorial Pacific Warm Pool during the Westerly Wind Bursts: A Case Study
Liu Hailong, Zhang Xuehong, Li Wei
2001, 18(5): 882-896.
The responses of sea surface temperature (SST) in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool to the west erly wind bursts (WWBs) play an important role in the relationship between WWB and ENSO. By using da ta collected from eight buoys of TOGA (Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere)-COARE (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment), the heat balances of the upper ocean in the western equatorial Pacific around 0. 156E during two WWB events were calculated according to Stevenson and Niiler's (1983) method. In both events, SST increased before and after the WWBs, while decreased within the WWBs. The SST amplitudes approximated to l℃. Although sometimes the horizontal heat advections may become the biggest term in the heat balance, the variation of SST was dominated by the surface heat flux. On the other aspect, some different features of the two events are also revealed. The two cases have different variation of mixed layer depth. The depth of mixed layer is almost double in the first case (35 m to 70 m), which is caused by Ekman convergence, while only 10m increments due to entrainment in the second one. There are also differences in the currents structure. The different variations of thermal and currents struc ture in the mixing layers accounted for the different variation of the heat balance during the two events, es pecially the advection and residue terms. The seasonal variation of SST in this area is also investigated sim ply. The first WWB event happened just during the seasonal transition. So we considered that it is a normal season transition rather than a so-called anomaly. That also suggested that the seasonal distinction of the WWB is worthy of more attention in the researches of its relationship to ENSO.
Energy and Water Balance at Soil-Air Interface in a Sahelian Region
Minwei Qian, N. Loglisci, C. Cassardo, A. Longhetto, C. Giraud
2001, 18(5): 897-909.
The aim of this work is an improvement of the parameterization of the soil moisture in the scheme of the Land Surface Process Model (LSPM) for applications over desert areas. In fact, in very dry conditions, the water vapour flux plays an important role in the evaporation processes and influences the underground profiles of humidity and temperature. The improved version of soil moisture parametcrization in the LSPM scheme has been checked by using the data taken from the database of the field experiment HAPEX-Sahel (Hydrology-Atmosphere Pilot Experiment in the Sahel, 1990-1992). Model simulations refer to three dif ferent stations located in Niger (Fallow, Millet and Tiger sites) where input data for LSPM and observations were simultaneously available. The results of simulations taking into account the water vapour flux in the soil model LSPM, seem to compare better with the observed behaviour of soil moisture and turbulent heat fluxes than those overlooking the water vapour flux, confirming the great importance of the water vapour in such dry conditions.
A Sensitivity Study on Parameterization Scheme of Snow Internal and Interfacial Processes in Snow Model
Sun Shufen, Li Jingyang
2001, 18(5): 910-928.
In order to develop a seasonal snow model of land surface process as accurately as possible for climatic study, it is necessary to fully understand the effects of important snow internal processes and interaction with air and to get an insight into influence of several relevant parameterization schemes with parameters' uncertainty to some degree. Using the snow model (SAST) developed by first author and other one and some useful field observation data, this paper has conducted a series of sensitivity studies on the parameterization schemes. They are relative to compaction process, snow thermal conduction, methodology of layering snow pack and to key parameters such as snow albedo, water holding capacity. Then, based on the results from the sensitivity studies, some useful conclusions for snow cover model improvement are ob tained from the analysis of the results.
Recent Researches on the Short-Term Climate Prediction at IAP-A Brief Review
Wang Huijun, Zhou Guangqing, Lin Zhaohui, Zhao Yan, Guo Yufu, Ma Zhuguo
2001, 18(5): 929-936.
Studies on the seasonal to extraseasonal climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in recent years were reviewed. The first short-term climate prediction experiment was carried out based on the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a tropical Pacific oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). In 1997, an ENSO prediction system including an oceanic initialization scheme was set up. At the same time, researches on the SST-induced climate predictability over East Asia were made. Based on the biennial signal in the interannual climate variability, an effective method was proposed for correcting the model predicted results recently. In order to consider the impacts of the initial soil mois ture anomalies, an empirical scheme was designed to compute the soil moisture by use of the atmospheric quantities like temperature, precipitation, and so on. Sets of prediction experiments were carried out to study the impacts of SST and the initial atmospheric conditions on the flood occurring over China in 1998.
Incorporating Stochastic Weather Generators into Studies on Climate Impacts: Methods and Uncertainties
Wu Jindong, Wang Shili
2001, 18(5): 937-949.
By adopting various stochastic weather generators, different research groups in their recent studies have realized the importance of the effects of climatic variability on crop growth and development. The conventional assessments derived climate change scenarios from General Circulation Models (GCMs) ex periments, however, are incapable of helping to understand this importance. The particular interest here is to review the general methodological scheme to incorporate stochastic weather generator into climate im pact studies and the specific approaches in our studies, and put forward uncertainties that still exist. A variety of approaches have been taken to develop the parameterization program and stochastic ex periment, and adjust the parameters of a typical stochastic weather generator called WGEN. Usually, the changes in monthly means and variances of weather variables between controlled and changed climate are used to perturb the parameters to generate the intended daily climate scenarios. We establish a parameterization program and methods for stochastic experiment of WGEN in the light of outputs of short-term climate prediction models, and evaluate its simulations on both temporal and spatial scales. Also, we manipulated parameters in relation to the changes in precipitation to produce the intended types and qualitative magnitudes of climatic variability. These adjustments yield various changes in climatic vari ability for sensitivity analyses. The impacts of changes in climatic variability on maize growth, final yield, and agro-climatic resources in Northeast China are assessed and presented as the case studies through the above methods. However, this corporation is still equivocal due to deficiencies of the generator and unsophisticated manipulation of parameters. To detect and simulate the changes in climatic variability is one of the indis pensable ways to reduce the uncertainties in this aspect.
Forecasting Monsoon Precipitation Using Artificial Neural Networks
Xiaodan Wu, Cao Hongxing, Andrew Flitman, Wei Fengying, Feng Guolin
2001, 18(5): 950-958. doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0014-0
This paper explores the application of Artificial Intelligent (AI) techniques for climate forecast. It pres ents a study on modelling the monsoon precipitation forecast by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Using the historical data of the total amount of summer rainfall over the Delta Area of Yangtze River in China, three ANNs models have been developed to forecast the monsoon precipitation in the corre sponding area one year, five-year, and ten-year forward respectively. Performances of the models have been validated using a 'new' data set that has not been exposed to the models during the processes of model development and test. The experiment results are promising, indicating that the proposed ANNs models have good quality in terms of the accuracy, stability and generalisation ability.
Ozone Profile Retrieval from Satellite Observation Using High Spectral Resolution Infrared Sounding Instrument
Yanni Qu, Mitchell D. Goldberg, Murty Divakarla
2001, 18(5): 959-971.
This paper presents a preliminary result on the retrieval of atmospheric ozone profiles using an im proved regression technique and utilizing the data from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS), a hyper-spectral instrument expected to be flown on the EOS-AQUA platform in 2002. Simulated AIRS spectra were used to study the sensitivity of AIRS radiance on the tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes, and to study the impact of various channel combinations on the ozone profile retrieval. Sensitivity study results indicate that the AIRS high resolution spectral channels between the wavenumber 650- 800 cm-1 provide very useful information to accurately retrieve tropospheric and stratospheric ozone pro files. Eigenvector decomposition of AIRS spectra indicate that no more than 100 eigenvectors are needed to retrieve very accurate ozone profiles. The accuracy of the retrieved atmospheric ozone profile from the pres ent technique and utilizing the AIRS data was compared with the accuracy obtained from current Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) data aboard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini stration (NOAA) satellites. As expected, a comparison of retrieval results confirms that the ozone profile re trieved with the AIRS data is superior to that of ATOVS.
Anomalous Atmospheric Circulation, Heat Sources and Moisture Sinks in Relation to Great Precipitation Anomalies in the Yangtze River Valley
Yang Hui
2001, 18(5): 972-983.
Using the summer (June to August) monthly mean data of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1980 to 1997, atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks are calculated. Anomalous circulation and the vertically inte grated heat source with the vertical integrated moisture sink and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) flux are examined based upon monthly composites for 16 great wet-spells and 8 great dry-spells over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The wind anomaly exhibits prominent differences between the great wet-spell and the great dry-spell over the Yangtze River Valley. For the great wet-spell, the anomalous southerly from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea and the anomalous northerly over North China enhanced low-level convergence toward a narrow latitudinal belt area (the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River). The southerly anomaly is connected with an anticyclonic anomalous circulation system centered at 22N, 140E and the northerly anomaly is associated with a cyclonic anomalous circulation system centered at the Japan Sea. In the upper level, the anomalous northwesterly between an anticyclonic anomalous system with the center at 23N, 105E and a cyclonic anomalous system with the center at Korea diverged over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. On the contrary, for the great dry-spell, the anomalous northerly over South China and the anomalous southerly over North China diverged from the Yangtze River Valley in the low level. The former formed in the western part of a cyclonic anomalous system centered at 23N, 135E. The latter was located in the western ridge of an anticyclonic anomalous system in the northwestern Pacific. The upper troposphere showed easterly anomaly that converged over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A cyclonic anomalous system in South China and an anticyclonic system centered in the Japan Sea enhanced the easterly. Large atmospheric heat source anomalies of opposite signs existed over the western Pacific-the South China Sea, with negative in the great wet-spell and positive in the great dry-spell. The analysis of heat source also revealed positive anomalous heat sources during the great wet-spell and negative anomalous heat sources during the great dry-spell over the Yangtze River valley. The changes of the moisture sink and OLR were correspondingly altered, implying the change of heat source anomaly is due to the latent heat re leasing of convective activity. Over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau-the Bay of Bengal, the analysis of heat source shows positive anomalous heat sources during the great wet-spell and negative anomalous heat sources during the great dry-spell because of latent heating change. The change of divergent wind coexisted with the change of heat source. In the great wet-spell, southerly divergent wind anomaly in the low level and northerly divergent wind anomaly in high-level are seen over South China. These divergent wind anomalies are helpful to the low-level convergence anomaly and high-level divergence anomaly over the Yangtze River valley. The low-level northerly divergent wind anomaly and high-level southerly divergent wind anomaly over South China reduced the low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the Yangtze River valley during the great dry-spell.
Atmospheric Corrections Using MODTRAN for TOA and Surface BRDF Characteristics from High Resolution Spectroradiometric/Angular Measurements from a Helicopter Platform
Yaping Zhou, Ken C. Rutledge, Thomas P. Charlock, Norman G. Loeb, Seiji Kato
2001, 18(5): 984-1004. doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0018-0
High-resolution spectral radiance measurements were taken by a spectral radiometer on board a heli copter over the US Oklahoma Southern Great Plain near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) site during August 1998. The radiometer has a spectral range from 350 nm to 2500 nm at 1 nm resolution. The measurements covered several grass and cropland scene types at multiple solar zenith angles. Detailed atmospheric corrections using the Moderate Resolution Transmittance (MODTRAN) radiation model and in-situ sounding and aerosol measurements have been applied to the helicopter measurements in order to re trieve the surface and top of atmosphere (TOA) Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) characteristics. The atmospheric corrections are most significant in the visible wavelengths and in the strong water vapor absorption wavelengths in the near infrared region. Adjusting the BRDF to TOA requires a larger correction in the visible channels since Rayleigh scattering contributes significantly to the TOA reflectance. The opposite corrections to the visible and near infrarred wavelengths can alter the radiance dif ference and ratio that many remote sensing techniques are based on, such as the normalized difference vege tation index (NDVI). The data show that surface BRDFs and spectral albedos are highly sensitive to the veg etation type and solar zenith angle while BRDF at TOA depends more on atmospheric conditions and the vi ewing geometry. Comparison with the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) derived clear sky Angular Distribution Model (ADM) for crop and grass scene type shows a standard deviation of 0.08 in broadband anisotropic function at 25 solar zenith angle and 0.15 at 50 solar zenith angle, respectively.
Relations of Water Vapor Transport from Indian Monsoon with That over East Asia and the Summer Rainfall in China
Zhang Renhe
2001, 18(5): 1005-1017.
A diagnostic study is made to investigate the relationship between water vapor transport from Indian monsoon and that over East Asia in Northern summer. It is found that water vapor transport from Indian monsoon is inverse to that over East Asia. More (less) Indian monsoon water vapor transport corresponds to less (more) water vapor transport over East Asia and less (more) rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. The Indian summer monsoon water vapor transport is closely related to the in tensity of the western Pacific subtropical high in its southwestern part. The stronger (weaker) the Indian sum mer monsoon water vapor transport, the weaker (stronger) the western Pacific subtropical high in its southwestern part, which leads to less (more) water vapor transport to East Asia, and thus less (more) rain fall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. Analysis of the out-going longwave radia tion anomalies suggests that the convective heating anomalies over the Indian Ocean may have significant impact not only on the Indian monsoon, but also on the East Asian monsoon.
Possible Influences of ITCZ in Asian Monsoon Regions on Rainy Season Anomaly of North China
Zhang Suping, Jiang Shangcheng
2001, 18(5): 1018-1028.
Vast convective activities over tropical zones are analyzed for both wet and dry summers in North China. An ITCZ synthesis index is designed using OLR data. The index can demonstrate quite clearly and objectively the seasonal featurea of deep convection in Asia monsoon areas. The differences of ITCZ activi ties in Indian as well as East Asian monsoon regions in winter-spring period are significant and so is the time-lagged correlation, which would be able to provide a new way to the long-lead prediction of summer rain in North China. The propagation characters of low frequency fluctuation are also different between wet and dry years. The intensity of low frequency fluctuation is stronger and the area is larger in wet years than that in dry years in both hemispheres. The fluctuation moves from south to north successively in wet years, which may lead to the leap of the subtropical high northwards, while it remains quasi-stationary in the Southern Hemisphere or the equatorial zone in dry years.
The Impact of Pacific SSTA on the Interannual Variability of Northern Pacific Storm Track during Winter
Zhu Weijun, Sun Zhaobo, Zhou Bing
2001, 18(5): 1029-1042.
Investigation is conducted of the interannual variability of the northern Pacific storm track and its con current association with 500 hPa height and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during winter. Evidence suggests that during the studying period the center of the northern winter Pacific storm track experiences substantial interannual variability in the variation of its latitude, longitude and intensity. Singular value de composition (SVD) of 15 winter 500 hPa filtered geopotential height variance over the storm track with the tropical and northern Pacific SST shows that the first coupled mode depicts the effect on the track of SSTA over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, while the second one reflects the impact of Kuroshio SSTA on the track. Further Composite analysis indicates, moreover, that the SSTA over Kuroshio (equatorial cen tral and eastern Pacific) during winter, which is relative to WP (PNA) teleconnection response pattern in 500 hPa height field, respectively, exerts crucial influence on the interannual variability in vigor and meridianal (zonal) displacement of the track over its central and western (eastern) part.
80a-Oscillation of Summer Rainfall over the East Part of China and East-Asian Summer Monsoon
Zhu Jinhong, Wang Shaowu
2001, 18(5): 1043-1051. doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0024-y
Relationship between summer rainfall over the east part of China and East-Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) was studied based on the summer rainfall grade data set from 1470 to 1999 and the rain gauge data set from 1951 to 1999 over the east part of China, and sea level pressure (SLP) data for the period of 1871-2000. A distinct 80a-oscillation of summer rainfall was found over North China (NC), southern part of Northeast China, over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (YR) and South China (SC). The 80a oscillation of summer rainfall over NC was varied in phase with that over SC, and was out of phase to that along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Summer rainfall over NC correlated negatively with the SLP averaged for the area from 105E to 120E, and from 30N to 35N, but positively to that for the area from 120E to 130E, and from 20N to 25N. Therefore, an index of EASM was de fined by the difference of averaged SLP over the two regions. The summer rainfall over NC was greater than normal when the EASM was strong, and while drought occurred along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The drought was found over NC, and flood along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River when the EASM was close to normal. Finally, the interdecadal variability of EASM was stu died by using of long term summer rainfall grade data set over NC for the past 530 years.