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2003 Vol. 20, No. 6

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Retrieving Soil Water Contents from Soil Temperature Measurements by Using Linear Regression
Qin XU, Binbin ZHOU
2003, 20(6): 849-858. doi: 10.1007/BF02915509
A simple linear regression method is developed to retrieve daily averaged soil water content from diurnal variations of soil temperature measured at three or more depths. The method is applied to Oklahoma Mesonet soil temperature data collected at the depths of 5, 10, and 30 cm during 11-20 June 1995. The retrieved bulk soil water contents are compared with direct measurements for one pair of nearly collocated Mesonet and ARM stations and also compared with the retrievals of a previous method at 14 enhanced Oklahoma Mesonet stations. The results show that the current method gives more persistent retrievals than the previous method. The method is also applied to Oklahoma Mesonet soil temperature data collected at the depths of 5, 25, 60, and 75 cm from the Norman site during 20 30 July 1998 and 1-31 July 2000. The retrieved soil water contents are verified by collocated soil water content measurements with rms differences smaller than the soil water observation error (0.05 ma m-a). The retrievals are found to be moderately sensitive to random errors (±0.1 K) in the soil temperature observations and errors in the soil type specifications.
Atmospheric Anomalies Related to Interdecadal Variability of SST in the North Pacific
LI Chongyin, XIAN Peng
2003, 20(6): 859-874. doi: 10.1007/BF02915510
Anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are studied corresponding to the two basic interdecadal variation modes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, namely, the 25-35-year mode and the 7-10-year mode. Results clearly indicate that corresponding to the positive and negative phases of the interdecadal modes of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the North Pacific, the anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are approximately out of phase, fully illustrating the important role of the interdecadal modes of SST. Since the two interdecadal modes of SSTA in the North Pacific have similar horizontal structures, their impacts on the atmospheric circulation and climate are also analogous. The impact of the interdecadal modes of the North Pacific SST on the atmospheric circulation is barotropic at middle latitudes and baroclinic in tropical regions.
A Linear Diagnostic Equation for the Nonhydrostatic Vertical Motion W in Severe Storms
YUAN Zhuojian, JIAN Maoqiu
2003, 20(6): 875-881. doi: 10.1007/BF02915511
A linear diagnostic equation for the nonhydrostatic vertical motion W in severe storms is derived in the Cartesian-earth-spherical coordinates. This W diagnostic equation reveals explicitly how forcing factors work together to exert influence on the nonhydrostatic vertical motion in severe storms. If high-resolution global data are available in Cartesian coordinates with guaranteed quality, the Lax-Crank-Nicolson scheme and the Thomas algorithm might provide a promising numerical solution of this diagnostic equation. As a result, quantitative analyses are expected for the evolution mechanisms of severe storms.
Modulation of Twin Tropical Cyclogenesis by the MJO Westerly Wind Burst during the Onset Period of 1997/98 ENSO
ZHU Congwen, Tetsuo NAKAZAWA, LI Jianping
2003, 20(6): 882-898. doi: 10.1007/BF02915512
The modulation of twin tropical cyclogenesis in the Indian-western Pacific Oceans by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the onset period of 1997/98 ENSO is explored for the period of September 1996 to June 1997 based on daily OLR, NCEP/NCAR wind vector, and JTWC best track datasets. The MJO westerly wind burst associated with its eastward propagation can result in a series of tropical cyclogeneses in a multi-day interval. Only in the transition seasons are pairs of tropical cyclones observed in both...
A New Algorithm for Sea Fog/Stratus Detection Using GMS-5 IR Data
Myoung-Hwan AHN, Eun-Ha SOHN, Byong-Jun HWANG
2003, 20(6): 899-913. doi: 10.1007/BF02915513
A new algorithm for the detection of fog/stratus over the ocean from the GMS-5 infrared (IR) channel data is presented. The new algorithm uses a clear-sky radiance composite map (CSCM) to compare the hourly observations of the IR radiance. The feasibility of the simple comparison is justified by the theoretical simulations of the fog effect on the measured radiance using a radiative transfer model. The simulation results show that the presence of fog can be detected provided the visibility is worse than 1 k...
Longitudinal Displacement of the Subtropical High in the Western Pacific in Summer and its Influence
YANG Hui, SUN Shuqing
2003, 20(6): 921-933. doi: 10.1007/BF02915515
Using the relative vorticity averaged over a certain area, a new index for measuring the longitudinal position of the subtropical high (SH) in the western Pacific is proposed to avoid the increasing trend of heights in the previous indices based on geopotential height. The years of extreme westward and eastward extension of SH using the new index are in good agreement with those defined by height index. There exists a distinct difference in large-scale circulation between the eastward and westward extension of SH under the new definition, which includes not only the circulation in the middle latitudes but also the flow in the lower latitudes. It seems that when the SH extends far to the east (west), the summer monsoon in the South China Sea is stronger (weaker) and established earlier (later). In addition, there exists a good relationship between the longitudinal position of SH and the summer rainfall in China. A remarkable negative correlation area appears in the Changjiang River valley, indicating that when the SH extends westward (eastward), the precipitation in that region increases (decreases). A positive correlation region is found in South China, showing the decrease of rainfall when the SH extends westward. On the other hand, the rainfall is heavier when the SH retreats eastward. However, the anomalous longitudinal position of SH is not significantly related to the precipitation in North China. The calculation of correlation coefficients between the index of longitudinal position of SH and surface temperature in China shows that a large area of positive values, higher than 0.6 in the center, covers the whole of North China, even extending eastward to the Korean Peninsula and Japan Islands when using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to do the correlation calculation. This means that when the longitudinal position of the SH withdraws eastward in summer, the temperature over North China is higher. On the other hand, when it moves westward, the temperature there is lower. This could explain the phenomenon of the seriously high temperatures over North China during recent summers, because the longitudinal position of SH in recent summers was located far away from the Asian continent. Another region with large negative correlation coefficients is found in South China.
A Relationship between Solar Activity and Frequency of Natural Disasters in China
WANG Zhongrui, Song FENG, TANG Maocang
2003, 20(6): 934-939. doi: 10.1007/BF02915516
The relationship between the length of the solar cycle, a good indicator of long-term change in solar activity, and natural disasters (drought, flood, and strong earthquakes) in China during the last 108 years is analyzed. The results suggest that the length of solar cycle may be a useful indicator for drought/flood and strong earthquakes. When the solar activity strengthens, we see the length of the solar cycle shorten and more floods occur in South China and frequent strong earthquakes happen in the Tibetan Plateau, but the droughts in East China as well as the strong earthquakes in Taiwan and at the western boundary of China are very few. The opposite frequencies occur when the solar activity weakens. The current study indicates that the solar activity may play an important role in the climate extremes and behavior in the lithosphere.
The Conservation of Helicity in Hurricane Andrew (1992) and the Formation of the Spiral Rainband
XU Yamei, WU Rongsheng
2003, 20(6): 940-950. doi: 10.1007/BF02915517
The characteristics of helicity in a hurricane are presented by calculating the MM5 model output in addition to theoretical analysis. It is found that helicity in a hurricane mainly depends on its horizontal component, whose magnitude is about 100 to 1000 times larger than its vertical component. It is also found that helicity is approximately conserved in the hurricane. Since the fluid has the intention to adjust the wind shear to satisfy the conservation of helicity, the horizontal vorticity is even larger than the vertical vorticity, and the three-dimensional vortices slant to the horizontal plane except in the inner eye. There are significant horizontal vortices and inhomogeneous helical flows in the hurricane. The formation of the spiral rainband is discussed by using the law of horizontal helical flows. It is closely related to the horizontal strong vortices and inhomogeneous helical flows.
Statistical Downscaling Based on Dynamically Downscaled Predictors: Application to Monthly Precipitation in Sweden
Cecilia HELLSTR?M, Deliang CHEN
2003, 20(6): 951-958. doi: 10.1007/BF02915518
A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.
The Northward Shift of Climatic Belts in China During the Last 50 Years and the Corresponding Seasonal Responses
YE Duzheng, JIANG Yundi, DONG Wenjie
2003, 20(6): 959-967. doi: 10.1007/BF02915519
Along the meridian of 105°E, the Chinese region are divided into two parts, east and west. The results show that in the east part of China the temperate extratropical belt, the warm extratropical belt, and the northern subtropical belt shift northward significantly, whereas the middle subtropical belt and the southern subtropical belt have less or no change. As for the northern subtropical belt, the maximal northward shift can reach 3.7 degrees of latitude. As for the warm extratropical belt, along the meridian of 120°-125°E, the maximal northward shift can reach 3-4 degrees. In the west part of China, each climatic belt changes little. Only in the Xinjiang area are the significant northward shifts. Correspondingly, it is found that in the last 50 years the traditional seasons have changed. For Beijing, Hailar, and Lanzhou, in general, summer becomes longer and winter shorter over the last 50 years. Summer begins early and ends late with respect to early 1950s. Contrary to the summer, winter begins late and ends early with respect to early 1950s. Furthermore, spring and autumn have changed over the last 50 years: with respect to early 1950s spring begins early and autumn begins late.
The Possible Influences of the Increasing Anthropogenic Emissions in India on Tropospheric Ozone and OH
LIU Yu, LI Weiliang, ZHOU Xiuji, I.S.A.ISAKSEN, J.K.SUNDET, HE Jinhai
2003, 20(6): 968-977. doi: 10.1007/BF02915520
A 3-D chemical transport model (OSLO CTM2) is used to investigate the influences of the increasing anthropogenic emission in India. The model is capable of reproducing the observational results of the INDOEX experiment and the measurements in summer over India well. The model results show that when Nox and CO emissions in India are doubled, ozone concentration increases, and global average OH decreases a little. Under the effects of the Indian summer monsoon, Nox and CO in India are efficiently transported into the middle and upper troposphere by the upward current and the convective activities so that the Nox, CO, and ozone in the middle and upper troposphere significantly increase with the increasing Nox and CO emissions. These increases extensively influence a part of Asia, Africa, and Europe, and persist from June to September.
An Improvement of the Mass Flux Convection Parameterization Scheme and its Sensitivity Tests for Seasonal Prediction over China
PING Fan, GAO Shouting, WANG Huijun
2003, 20(6): 978-990. doi: 10.1007/BF02915521
A modified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in a seasonal forecast model, is presented. This parameterization scheme is an improvement of the mass flux convection scheme developed by Gregory and Rowntree (1989; 1990). This convection scheme uses a "bulk" cloud model to present an ensemble of convective clouds, and aims to represent shallow, deep, and mid-level convection. At present,this convection scheme is employed in the NCC T63L20 model (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration). Simulation results with this scheme have revealed some deficiencies in the scheme,although to some extent, it improves the accuracy of the simulation. In order to alleviate the deficiencies and reflect the effect of cumulus convection in the actual atmosphere, the scheme is modified and improved.The improvements include (i) the full estimation of the effects of the large-scale convergence in the lower layer upon cumulus convection, (ii) the revision of the initial convective mass flux, and (iii) the regulation of convective-scale downdrafts. A comparison of the results obtained by using the original model and the modified one shows that the improvement and modification of the original convection scheme is successful in simulating the precipitation and general circulation field, because the modified scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of seasonal precipitation in China, and an analysis of the anomaly correlation coefficient between the simulation and the observations confirms the improved results.
Characteristics of the Heat Island Effect in Shanghai and Its Possible Mechanism
CHEN Longxun, ZHU Wenqin, ZHOU Xiuji, ZHOU Zijiang
2003, 20(6): 991-1001. doi: 10.1007/BF02915522
The characteristics of the urban heat island effect and the climate change in Shanghai and its possible mechanism are analyzed based on monthly meteorological data from 1961 to 1997 at 16 stations in Shanghai and its adjacent areas. The results indicate that Shanghai City has the characteristics of a heat island of air temperature and maximum and minimum air temperature, a cold island of surface soil temperature, a weak rainy island of precipitation, and a turbid island of minimum visibility and aerosols, with centers at or near Longhua station (the urban station of Shanghai). Besides theses, the characteristics of a cloudy island and sunshine duration island are also obvious, but their centers are located in the southern part of the urban area and in the southern suburbs. A linear trend analysis suggests that all of the above urban effects intensified from 1961 to 1997. So far as the heat island effect is concerned, the heat island index (difference of annual temperature between Longhua and Songjiang stations) strengthens (weakens) as the economic development increases (decreases). The authors suggest that the heating increase caused by increasing energy consumption due to economic development is a main factor in controlling the climate change of Shanghai besides natural factors. On the other hand, increasing pollution aerosols contribute to the enhancement of the turbid island and cooling. On the whole, the heating effect caused by increasing energy consumption is stronger than the cooling effect caused by the turbid island and pollution aerosols.
The Influence of Vegetation Cover on Summer Precipitation in China: a Statistical Analysis of NDVI and Climate Data
ZHANG Jingyong, DONG Wenjie, FU Congbin, WU Lingyun
2003, 20(6): 1002-1006. doi: 10.1007/BF02915523
This study provides new evidence for the feedback effects of vegetation cover on summer precipitation in different regions of China by calculating immediate (same season), and one-and two-season lagged correlations between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and summer precipitation. The results show that the correlation coefficients between NDVI in spring and the previous winter and precipitation in summer are positive in most regions of China, and they show significant difference between regions. The stronger one-and two-season lagged correlations occur in the eastern arid/semi-arid region, Central China,and Southwest China out of the eight climatic regions of China, and this implies that vegetation cover change has more sensitive feedback effects on summer precipitation in the three regions. The three regions are defined as sensitive regions. Spatial analyses of correlations between spring NDVI averaged over each sensitive region and summer precipitation of 160 stations suggest that the vegetation cover strongly affects summer precipitation not only over the sensitive region itself but also over other regions, especially the downstream region.
Ultraviolet Radiation in Overcast Sky at the Surface
BAI Jianhui, WANG Gengchen, HU Fei
2003, 20(6): 1007-1009. doi: 10.1007/BF02915524
Based on the analysis of one year of observation data of solar radiation at the ground in Beijing in 1990, a simple empirical formula for calculating UV radiation in overcast sky is established. The formula is Quv/Quv0 = A1S + A0, where Quv and Quvo are monthly mean daily sums of UV exposure in overcast sky and clear sky, respectively. S is the daily sunshine hours. The calculated results agree well with the observed. The maximum and minimum relative biases are 9.9% and 0.1%, respectively, and the yearly relative bias is 2.9%. The ratio of ultraviolet radiation of overcast sky to clear sky in 1990 is between 44.6% and 61.8%, and the yearly average is 53.9%. Thus, almost half of the UV energy is lost in the atmosphere in overcast sky in 1990.