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2005 Vol. 22, No. 1

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Seasonal Variability of the Yellow Sea/East China Sea Surface Fluxes and Thermohaline Structure
Peter CHU, CHEN Yuchun, Akira KUNINAKA
2005, 22(1): 1-20. doi: 10.1007/BF02930865
We use the U.S. Navy's Master Oceanographic Observation Data Set (MOODS) for the Yellow Sea/East China Sea (YES) to investigate the climatological water mass features and the seasonal and non-seasonal variabilities of the thermohaline structure, and use the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) from 1945 to 1989 to investigate the linkage between the fluxes (momentum, heat, and moisture) across the air-ocean interface and the formation of the water mass features. After examining the major current systems and considering the local bathymetry and water mass properties, we divide YES into five regions: East China Sea (ECS) shelf, Yellow Sea (YS) Basin, Cheju bifurcation (CB) zone, Taiwan Warm Current (TWC) region, Kuroshio Current (KG) region. The long term mean surface heat balance corresponds to a heat loss of 30 W m-2 in the ESC and CB regions, a heat loss of 65 W m-2 in the KG and TWC regions, and a heat gain of 15 W m-2 in the YS region. The surface freshwater balance is defined by precipitation minus evaporation. The annual water loss from the surface for the five subareas ranges from 1.8 to 4 cm month-1. The fresh water loss from the surface should be compensated for from the river run-off. The entire water column of the shelf region (ECS, YS, and CB) undergoes an evident seasonal thermal cycle with maximum values of temperature during summer and maximum mixed layer depths during winter. However, only the surface waters of the TWC and KG regions exhibit a seasonal thermal cycle.We also found two different relations between surface salinity and the Yangtze River run-off, namely, out-of-phase in the East China Sea shelf and in-phase in the Yellow Sea. This may confirm an earlier study that the summer fresh water discharge from the Yangtze River forms a relatively shallow, low salinity plume-like structure extending offshore on average towards the northeast.
Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon in Recent Decades
WU Bingyi
2005, 22(1): 21-29. doi: 10.1007/BF02930866
The analysis of 43 years of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and station observations reveals the connections between tropospheric temperature variations and the weakening of the Indian summer monsoon circulation. The Indian summer monsoon variation is strongly linked to tropospheric temperature over East Asia, showing significant positive correlations of mean tropospheric temperature with all-Indian summer rainfall and the monsoon circulation intensity. The result shows that Indian summer monsoon circulation underwent two weakening processes in recent decades. The first occurred in circa the mid-1960s, and the other occurred in circa the late 1970s. The finding indicates that the mean tropospheric temperature may play a crucial role in the weakening of the Indian summer monsoon intensity via changing land-sea thermal contrast. The role of the tropospheric temperature contrast between East Asia and the tropical area from the eastern Indian Ocean to the tropical western Pacific is to weaken the Indian summer monsoon circulation.
A High Resolution Nonhydrostatic Tropical Atmospheric Model and Its Performance
SHEN Xueshun, Akimasa SUMI
2005, 22(1): 30-38. doi: 10.1007/BF02930867
A high resolution nonhydrostatic tropical atmospheric model is developed by using a ready-made regional atmospheric modeling system. The motivation is to investigate the convective activities associated with the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) through a cloud resolving calculation. Due to limitations in computing resources, a 2000 km×2000 km region covering the forefront of an ISO-related westerly is selected as the model domain, in which a cloud-resolving integration with a 5-km horizontal resolution is conducted. The results indicate the importance of stratus-cumulus interactions in the organization of the cloud clusters embedded in the ISO. In addition, comparative integrations with 2-km and 5-km grid sizes are conducted, which suggest no distinctive differences between the two cases although some finer structures of convections are discernible in the 2-km case. The significance of this study resides in supplying a powerful tool for investigating tropical cloud activities without the controversy of cloud parameterizations. The parallel computing method applied in this model allows sufficient usage of computer memory, which is different from the usual method used when parallelizing regional model. Further simulation for the global tropics with a resolution around 5 km is being prepared.
Possible Impacts of the Arctic Oscillation on the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in East Asia
JU Jianhua, Lü Junmei, CAO Jie, REN Juzhang
2005, 22(1): 39-48. doi: 10.1007/BF02930868
The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia. The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However,the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China.The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.
Nonlinear Oscillations of Semigeostrophic Eady Waves in the Presence of Diffusivity
Qin XU, Wei GU, GAO Shouting
2005, 22(1): 49-57. doi: 10.1007/BF02930869
Analyses are performed to examine the physical processes involved in nonlinear oscillations of Eady baroclinic waves obtained from viscous semigeostrophic models with two types of boundary conditions (freeslip and non-slip). By comparing with previous studies for the case of the free-slip boundary condition, it is shown that the nonlinear oscillations are produced mainly by the interaction between the baroclinic wave and zonal-mean state (total zonal-mean flow velocity and buoyancy stratification) but the timescale of the nonlinear oscillations is largely controlled by the diffusivity. When the boundary condition is non-slip, the nonlinear oscillations are further damped and slowed by the diffusive process. Since the free-slip (non-slip)boundary condition is the zero drag (infinite drag) limit of the more realistic drag boundary condition,the nonlinear oscillations obtained with the two types of boundary conditions are two extremes for more realistic nonlinear oscillations.
The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China
Mei ZHAO, Andrew J. PITMAN
2005, 22(1): 58-68. doi: 10.1007/BF02930870
A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280, 355,430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) ona 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate modelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.
Finite-Time Normal Mode Disturbances and Error Growth During Southern Hemisphere Blocking
Mozheng WEI, Jorgen S. FREDERIKSEN
2005, 22(1): 69-89. doi: 10.1007/BF02930871
The structural organization of initially random errors evolving in a barotropic tangent linear model, with time-dependent basic states taken from analyses, is examined for cases of block development, maturation and decay in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere during April, November, and December 1989. The statistics of 100 evolved errors are studied for six-day periods and compared with the growth and structures of fast growing normal modes and finite-time normal modes (FTNMs). The amplification factors of most initially random errors are slightly less than those of the fastest growing FTNM for the same time interval.During their evolution, the standard deviations of the error fields become concentrated in the regions of rapid dynamical development, particularly associated with developing and decaying blocks. We have calculated probability distributions and the mean and standard deviations of pattern correlations between each of the 100 evolved error fields and the five fastest growing FTNMs for the same time interval. The mean of the largest pattern correlation, taken over the five fastest growing FTNMs, increases with increasing time interval to a value close to 0.6 or larger after six days. FTNM 1 generally, but not always, gives the largest mean pattern correlation with error fields. Corresponding pattern correlations with the fast growing normal modes of the instantaneous basic state flow are significant but lower than with FTNMs.Mean pattern correlations with fast growing FTNMs increase further when the time interval is increased beyond six days.
An Improved Method for Doppler Wind and Thermodynamic Retrievals
SHUN Liu, QIU Chongjian, XU Qin, ZHANG Pengfei, GAO Jidong, SHAO Aimei
2005, 22(1): 90-102. doi: 10.1007/BF02930872
A variational method is developed to retrieve winds in the first step and then thermodynamic fields in the second step from Doppler radar observations. In the first step, wind fields are retrieved at two time levels: the beginning and ending times of the data assimilation period, simultaneously from two successive volume scans by using the weak form constraints provided by the mass continuity and vorticity equations.As the retrieved wind fields are expressed by Legendre polynomial expansions at the beginning and ending times, the time tendency term in the vorticity equation can be conveniently formulated, and the retrieved winds can be compared with the radar observed radial winds in the cost function at the precise time and position of each radar beam. In the second step, the perturbation pressure and temperature fields at the middle time are then derived from the retrieved wind fields and the velocity time tendency by using the weak form constraints provided by the three momentum equations. The merits of the new method are demonstrated by numerical experiments with simulated radar observations and compared with the traditional least squares methods which consider neither the precise observation times and positions nor the velocity time tendency. The new method is also applied to real radar data for a heavy rainfall event during the 2001 Meiyu season in China.
Seasonal Differences of Model Predictability and the Impact of SST in the Pacific
LANG Xianmei, WANG Huijun
2005, 22(1): 103-113. doi: 10.1007/BF02930873
Both seasonal potential predictability and the impact of SST in the Pacific on the forecast skill over China are investigated by using a 9-level global atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP9L-AGCM). For each year during 1970 to 1999, the ensemble consists of seven integrations started from consecutive observational daily atmospheric fields and forced by observational monthly SST. For boreal winter, spring and summer,the variance ratios of the SST-forced variability to the total variability and the differences in the spatial correlation coefficients of seasonal mean fields in special years versus normal years are computed respectively. It follows that there are slightly inter-seasonal differences in the model potential predictability in the Tropics. At northern middle and high latitudes, prediction skill is generally low in spring and relatively high either in summer for surface air temperature and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential height or in winter for wind and precipitation. In general, prediction skill rises notably in western China, especially in northwestern China, when SST anomalies (SSTA) in the Nino-3 region are significant. Moreover,particular attention should be paid to the SSTA in the North Pacific (NP) if one aims to predict summer climate over the eastern part of China, i.e., northeastern China, North China and southeastern China.
Parameterization for the Depth of the Entrainment Zone above the Convectively Mixed Layer
SUN Jianning, JIANG Weimei, CHEN Ziyun, YUAN Renmin
2005, 22(1): 114-121. doi: 10.1007/BF02930874
It has been noted that when the convective Richardson number Ri* is used to characterize the depth of the entrainment zone, various parameterization schemes can be obtained. This situation is often attributed to the invalidity of parcel theory. However, evidence shows that the convective Richardson number Ri*might be an improper characteristic scaling parameter for the entrainment process. An attempt to use an innovative parameter to parameterize the entrainment-zone thickness has been made in this paper.Based on the examination of the data of water-tank experiments and atmospheric measurements, it is found that the total lapse rate of potential temperature across the entrainment zone is proportional to that of the capping inversion layer. Inserting this relationship into the so-called parcel theory, it thus gives a new parameterization scheme for the depth of the entrainment zone. This scheme includes the lapse rate of the capping inversion layer that plays an important role in the entrainment process. Its physical representation is reasonable. The new scheme gives a better ordering of the data measured in both watertank and atmosphere as compared with the traditional method using Ri*. These indicate that the parcel theory can describe the entrainment process suitably and that the new parameter is better than Ri*.
Interdecadal Variations of Phase Delays Between Two Ni(n)o Indices at Different Time Scales
BIAN Jianchun, YANG Peicai
2005, 22(1): 122-125. doi: 10.1007/BF02930875
Phase delays between two Nino indices-sea surface temperatures in Nino regions 1+2 and 3.4(1950-2001)-at different time scales are detected by wavelet analysis. Analysis results show that thereare two types of period bifurcations in the Nino indices and that period bifurcation points exist only in the region where the wavelet power is small. Interdecadal variation features of phase delays between the two indices vary with different time scales. In the periods of 40-72 months, the phase delay changes its sign in 1977: Nino 1+2 indices are 2-4 months earlier than Nino 3.4 indices before 1977, but 3-6 months later afterwards. In the periods of 20-40 months, however, the phase delay changes its sign in another way:Nino 1+2 indices are 1-4 months earlier before 1980 and during 1986-90, but 1-4 months later during 1980-83 and 1993-2001.
Diurnal Variations of Air Pollution and Atmospheric Boundary Layer Structure in Beijing During Winter 2000/2001
ZHOU Li, XU Xiangde, DING Guoan, ZHOU Mingyu, CHENG Xinghong
2005, 22(1): 126-132. doi: 10.1007/BF02930876
The diurnal variations of gaseous pollutants and the dynamical and thermodynamic structures of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in the Beijing area from January to March 2001 are analyzed in this study using data from the Beijing City Air Pollution Observation Field Experiment (BECAPEX). A heavy pollution day (22 February) and a good air quality day (24 February) are selected and individually analyzed and compared to reveal the relationships between gaseous pollutants and the diurnal variations of the ABL. The results show that gaseous pollutant concentrations exhibit a double-peak-double-valley-type diurnal variation and have similar trends but with different magnitudes at different sites in Beijing. The diurnal variation of the gaseous pollutant concentrations is closely related to (with a 1-2 hour delay of)changes in the atmospheric stability and the mean kinetic energy in the ABL.
Comparison Between Computer Simulation of Transport and Diffusion of Cloud Seeding Material Within Stratiform Cloud and the NOAA-14 Satellite Cloud Track
YU Xing, DAI Jin, LEI Hengchi, FAN Peng
2005, 22(1): 133-141. doi: 10.1007/BF02930877
A precipitation enhancement operation using an aircraft was conducted from 1415 to 1549 LST 14 March 2000 in Shaanxi Province. The NOAA-14 satellite data received at 1535 LST soon after the cloud seeding shows that a vivid cloud track appears on the satellite image. The length, average width and maximum width of the cloud track are 301 km, 8.3 and 11 km, respectively. Using a three-dimensional numerical model of transport and diffusion of seeding material within stratiform clouds, the spatial concentration distribution characteristics of seeding material at different times, especially at the satellite receiving time,are simulated. The model results at the satellite receiving time are compared with the features of the cloud track. The transported position of the cloud seeding material coincides with the position of the track. The width, shape and extent of diffusion of the cloud seeding material are similar to that of the cloud track.The spatial variation of width is consistent with that of the track. The simulated length of each segment of the seeding line accords with the length of every segment of the track. Each segment of the cloud track corresponds to the transport and diffusion of each segment of the seeding line. These results suggest that the cloud track is the direct physical reflection of cloud seeding at the cloud top. The comparison demonstrates that the numerical model of transport and diffusion can simulate the main characteristics of transport and diffusion of seeding material, and the simulated results are sound and trustworthy. The area, volume, width, depth, and lateral diffusive rate corresponding to concentrations 1, 4, and 10 L-1are simulated in order to understand the variations of influencing range.
Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation of a Land Surface Model: Sensitivity to Parameter Ranges and Model Complexities
Youlong XIA, Zong-Liang YANG, Paul L. STOFFA, Mrinal K. SEN
2005, 22(1): 142-157. doi: 10.1007/BF02930878
Most previous land-surface model calibration studies have defined global ranges for their parameters to search for optimal parameter sets. Little work has been conducted to study the impacts of realistic versus global ranges as well as model complexities on the calibration and uncertainty estimates. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate these impacts by employing Bayesian Stochastic Inversion (BSI)to the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM). The CHASM was designed to explore the general aspects of land-surface energy balance representation within a common modeling framework that can be run from a simple energy balance formulation to a complex mosaic type structure. The BSI is an uncertainty estimation technique based on Bayes theorem, importance sampling, and very fast simulated annealing.The model forcing data and surface flux data were collected at seven sites representing a wide range of climate and vegetation conditions. For each site, four experiments were performed with simple and complex CHASM formulations as well as realistic and global parameter ranges. Twenty eight experiments were conducted and 50 000 parameter sets were used for each run. The results show that the use of global and realistic ranges gives similar simulations for both modes for most sites, but the global ranges tend to produce some unreasonable optimal parameter values. Comparison of simple and complex modes shows that the simple mode has more parameters with unreasonable optimal values. Use of parameter ranges and model complexities have significant impacts on frequency distribution of parameters, marginal posterior probability density functions, and estimates of uncertainty of simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes.Comparison between model complexity and parameter ranges shows that the former has more significant impacts on parameter and uncertainty estimations.