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2006 Vol. 23, No. 3

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Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM NCC). Part I: Sensitivity Study
DING Yihui, SHI Xueli, LIU Yiming, LIU Yan, LI Qingquan, QIAN Yongfu, MIAO Manqian, ZHAI Guoqing, GAO Kun
2006, 23(3): 323-341. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0487-2
A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model II) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.
Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Motion Using a Baroclinic Model
Xiaqiong ZHOU, Johnny C. L. CHEN
2006, 23(3): 342-354. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0342-5
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of two different ensemble forecasting (EF) techniques–the lagged-averaged forecast (LAF) and the breeding of growing modes (BGM). In the BGM experiments, the vortex and the environment are perturbed separately (named BGMV and BGME). Tropical cyclone (TC) motions in two difficult situations are studied: a large vortex interacting with its environment, and an apparent binary interaction. The former is Typhoon Yancy and the latter involves Typhoon Ed and super Typhoon Flo, all occurring during the Tropical Cyclone Motion Experiment TCM- 90. The model used is the baroclinic model of the University of New South Wales. The lateral boundary tendencies are computed from atmospheric analysis data. Only the relative skill of the ensemble forecast mean over the control run is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the EF methods, although the EF technique is also used to quantify forecast uncertainty in some studies. In the case of Yancy, the ensemble mean forecasts of each of the three methodologies are better than that of the control, with LAF being the best. The mean track of the LAF is close to the best track, and it predicts landfall over Taiwan. The improvements in LAF and the full BGM where both the environment and vortex are perturbed suggest the importance of combining the perturbation of the vortex and environment when the interaction between the two is appreciable. In the binary interaction case of Ed and Flo, the forecasts of Ed appear to be insensitive to perturbations of the environment and/or the vortex, which apparently results from erroneous forecasts by the model of the interaction between the subtropical ridge and Ed, as well as from the interaction between the two typhoons, thus reducing the effectiveness of the EF technique. This conclusion is reached through sensitivity experiments on the domain of the model and by adding or eliminating certain features in the model atmosphere. Nevertheless, the forecast tracks in some of the cases are improved over that of the control. On the other hand, the EF technique has little impact on the forecasts of Flo because the control forecast is already very close to the best track. The study provides a basis for the future development of the EF technique. The limitations of this study are also addressed. For example, the above results are based on a small sample, and the study is actually a simulation, which is different than operational forecasting. Further tests of these EF techniques are proposed.
The Statistical Significance Test of Regional Climate Change Caused by Land Use and Land Cover Variation in West China
WANG Hanjie, SHI Weilai, CHEN Xiaohong
2006, 23(3): 355-364. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0355-0
The West Development Policy being implemented in China is causing significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes in West China. With the up-to-date satellite database of the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database (GLCCD) that characterizes the lower boundary conditions, the regional climate model RIEMS-TEA is used to simulate possible impacts of the significant LULC variation. The model was run for five continuous three-month periods from 1 June to 1 September of 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997, and the results of the five groups are examined by means of a student t-test to identify the statistical significance of regional climate variation. The main results are: (1) The regional climate is affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed. (2) The integrated impact of the LULC variation on regional climate is not only limited to West China where the LULC varies, but also to some areas in the model domain where the LULC does not vary at all. (3) The East Asian monsoon system and its vertical structure are adjusted by the large scale LULC variation in western China, where the consequences are the enhancement of the westward water vapor transfer from the east oast and the relevant increase of wet-hydrostatic energy in the middle-upper atmospheric layers. (4) The ecological engineering in West China affects significantly the regional climate in Northwest China, North China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River; there are obvious effects in South, Northeast, and Southwest China, but minor effects in Tibet.
Turbulent Variance Characteristics of Temperature and Humidity over a Non-uniform Land Surface for an Agricultural Ecosystem in China
GAO Zhiqiu, BIAN Lingen, CHEN Zhigang, Michael SPARROW, ZHANG Jiahua
2006, 23(3): 365-374. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0365-y
This paper describes the application of the variance method for flux estimation over a mixed agricultural region in China. Eddy covariance and flux variance measurements were conducted in a near-surface layer over a non-uniform land surface in the central plain of China from 7 June to 20 July 2002. During this period, the mean canopy height was about 0.50 m. The study site consisted of grass (10% of area), beans (15%), corn (15%) and rice (60%). Under unstable conditions, the standard deviations of temperature and water vapor density (normalized by appropriate scaling parameters), observed by a single instrument, followed the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The similarity constants for heat (CT ) and water vapor (Cq) were 1.09 and 1.49, respectively. In comparison with direct measurements using eddy covariance techniques, the flux variance method, on average, underestimated sensible heat flux by 21% and latent heat flux by 24%, which may be attributed to the fact that the observed slight deviations (20% or 30% at most) of the similarity “constants” may be within the expected range of variation of a single instrument from the generally-valid relations.
Simulations of the 100-hPa South Asian High and Precipitation over East Asia with IPCC Coupled GCMs
ZHOU Ningfang, YU Yongqiang, QIAN Yongfu
2006, 23(3): 375-390. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0375-9
The South Asian High (SAH) and precipitation over East Asia simulated by 11 coupled GCMs associated with the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report are evaluated. The seasonal behavior of the SAH is presented for each model. Analyses of the results show that all models are able to reproduce the seasonal cycle of the SAH. Locations of the SAH center are also basically reproduced by these models. All models underestimate the intensity and the extension of coverage in summer. The anomalous SAH can be divided into east and west modes according to its longitudinal position in summer on the interannual timescale, and the composite anomalies of the observed precipitation for these two modes tend to have opposite signs over East Asia. However, only several coupled GCMs can simulate the relationship between rainfall and SAH similar to the observed one, which may be associated with the bias in simulation of the subtropical anticyclone over the West Pacific (SAWP) at 500 hPa. In fact, it is found that any coupled GCM, that can reproduce the reasonable summer mean state of SAWP and the southward (northward) withdrawal (extension) for the east (west) mode of SAH as compared to the observed, will also simulate similar rainfall anomaly patterns for the east and west SAH modes over East Asia. Further analysis indicates that the observed variations in the SAH, SAWP and rainfall are closely related to the sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial tropical Pacific. Particularly, some models cannot simulate the SAWP extending northward in the west mode and withdrawing southward in the east mode, which may be related to weak major El Ni?no or La Ni?na events. The abilities of the coupled GCMs to simulate the SAWP and ENSO events are associated partly with their ability to reproduce the observed relationship between SAH and the rainfall anomaly over East Asia.
Effects of Heterogeneous Vegetation on the Surface Hydrological Cycle
ZHOU Suoquan, CHEN Jingming, GONG Peng, XUE Genyuan
2006, 23(3): 391-404. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0391-9
Using the three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) hydrological model and the successive interpolation approach (SIA) of climate factors, the authors studied the effect of different land cover types on the surface hydrological cycle. Daily climate data from 1992 to 2001 and remotely-sensed leaf area index (LAI) are used in the model. The model is applied to the Baohe River basin, a subbasin of the Yangtze River basin, China, with an area of 2500 km2. The vegetation cover types in the Baohe River basin consist mostly of the mixed forest type (85%). Comparison of the modeled results with the observed discharge data suggests that: (1) Daily discharges over the period of 1992–2001 simulated with inputs of remotely-sensed land cover data and LAI data can generally produce observed discharge variations, and the modeled annual total discharge agrees with observations with a mean difference of 1.4%. The use of remote sensing images also makes the modeled spatial distributions of evapotranspiration physically meaningful. (2) The relative computing error (RCE) of the annual average discharge is ?24.8% when the homogeneous broadleaf deciduous forestry cover is assumed for the watershed. The error is 21.8% when a homogeneous cropland cover is assumed and ?14.32% when an REDC (Resource and Environment Database of China) land cover map is used. The error is reduced to 1.4% when a remotely-sensed land cover at 1000-m resolution is used.
A Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Algorithm Using Back-Propagation Neural Network Approach
2006, 23(3): 405-414. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0405-7
A back-propagation neural network (BPNN) was used to establish relationships between the shortrange (0-3-h) rainfall and the predictors ranging from extrapolative forecasts of radar reflectivity, satelliteestimated cloud-top temperature, lightning strike rates, and Nested Grid Model (NGM) outputs. Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the probabilities of categorical precipitation were obtained. Results of the BPNN algorithm were compared to the results obtained from the multiple linear regression algorithm for an independent dataset from the 1999 warm season over the continental United States. A sample forecast was made over the southeastern United States. Results showed that the BPNN categorical rainfall forecasts agreed well with Stage III observations in terms of the size and shape of the area of rainfall. The BPNN tended to over-forecast the spatial extent of heavier rainfall amounts, but the positioning of the areas with rainfall >25.4 mm was still generally accurate. It appeared that the BPNN and linear regression approaches produce forecasts of very similar quality, although in some respects BPNN slightly outperformed the regression.
Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Three Paddy Rice Based Cultivation Systems in Southwest China
JIANG Changsheng, WANG Yuesi, ZHENG Xunhua, ZHU Bo, HUANG Yao, HAO Qingju
2006, 23(3): 415-424. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0415-5
To understand methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from permanently flooded rice paddy fields and to develop mitigation options, a field experiment was conducted in situ for two years (from late 2002 to early 2005) in three rice-based cultivation systems, which are a permanently flooded rice field cultivated with a single time and followed by a non-rice season (PF), a rice-wheat rotation system (RW) and a rice-rapeseed rotation system (RR) in a hilly area in Southwest China. The results showed that the total CH4 emissions from PF were 646.3±52.1 and 215.0±45.4 kg CH4 hm?2 during the rice-growing period and non-rice period, respectively. Both values were much lower than many previous reports from similar regions in Southwest China. The CH4 emissions in the rice-growing season were more intensive in PF, as compared to RW and RR. Only 33% of the total annual CH4 emission in PF occurred in the non-rice season, though the duration of this season is two times longer than the rice season. The annual mean N2O flux in PF was 4.5±0.6 kg N2O hm?2 yr?1. The N2O emission in the rice-growing season was also more intensive than in the non-rice season, with only 16% of the total annual emission occurring in the non-rice season. The amounts of N2O emission in PF were ignorable compared to the CH4 emission in terms of the global warming potential (GWP). Changing PF to RW or RR not only eliminated CH4 emissions in the non-rice season, but also substantially reduced the CH4 emission during the following rice-growing period (ca. 58%, P<0.05). However, this change in cultivation system substantially increased N2O emissions, especially in the non-rice season, by a factor of 3.7 to 4.5. On the 100-year horizon, the integrated GWP of total annual CH4 and N2O emissions satisfies PFRRURW. The GWP of PF is higher than that of RW and RR by a factor of 2.6 and 2.7, respectively. Of the total GWP of CH4 and N2O emissions, CH4 emission contributed to 93%, 65% and 59% in PF, RW and RR, respectively. These results suggest that changing PF to RW and RR can substantially reduce not only CH4 emission but also the total GWP of the CH4 and N2O emissions.
A Correction Method Suitable for Dynamical Seasonal Prediction
CHEN Hong, LIN Zhaohui
2006, 23(3): 425-430. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0425-3
Based on the hindcast results of summer rainfall anomalies over China for the period 1981–2000 by the Dynamical Climate Prediction System (IAP-DCP) developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, a correction method that can account for the dependence of model’s systematic biases on SST anomalies is proposed. It is shown that this correction method can improve the hindcast skill of the IAP-DCP for summer rainfall anomalies over China, especially in western China and southeast China, which may imply its potential application to real-time seasonal prediction.
The Impacts of Optical Properties on Radiative Forcing Due to Dust Aerosol
WANG Hong, SHI Guangyu, LI Shuyan, LI Wei, WANG Biao, HUANG Yanbin
2006, 23(3): 431-441. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0431-5
There are large uncertainties in the quantitative assessment of radiative effects due to atmospheric dust aerosol. The optical properties contribute much to those uncertainties. The authors perform several sensitivity experiments to estimate the impacts of optical characteristics on regional radiative forcing in this paper. The experiments involve in refractive indices, single scattering albedo, asymmetry factor and optical depth. An updated dataset of refractive indices representing East Asian dust and the one recommended by the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) are contrastively analyzed and used. A radiative transfer code for solar and thermal infrared radiation with detailed aerosol parameterization is employed. The strongest emphasis is on the refractive indices since other optical parameters strongly depend on it, and the authors found a strong sensitivity of radiative forcing on refractive indices. Studies show stronger scattering, weaker absorption and forward scattering of the East Asian dust particles at solar wavelengths, which leads to higher negative forcing, lower positive forcing and bigger net forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) than that of the WMO dust model. It is also found that the TOA forcings resulting from these two dust models have opposite signs in certain regions, which implies the importance of accurate measurements of optical properties in the quantitative estimation of radiative forcing.
Framework of Distributed Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Modeling System
WEN Yuanqiao, HUANG Liwen, DENG Jian, ZHANG Jinfeng, WANG Sisi, WANG Lijun
2006, 23(3): 442-448. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0442-2
In order to research the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean as well as their important role in the intensive weather systems of coastal areas, and to improve the forecasting ability of the hazardous weather processes of coastal areas, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system has been developed. The agent-based environment framework for linking models allows flexible and dynamic information exchange between models. For the purpose of flexibility, portability and scalability, the framework of the whole system takes a multi-layer architecture that includes a user interface layer, computational layer and service-enabling layer. The numerical experiment presented in this paper demonstrates the performance of the distributed coupled modeling system.
Assimilated Tidal Results of Tide Gauge and TOPEX/POSEIDON Data over the China Seas Using a Variational Adjoint Approach with a Nonlinear Numerical Model
HAN Guijun, LI Wei, HE Zhongjie, LIU Kexiu, MA Jirui
2006, 23(3): 449-460. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0449-8
In order to obtain an accurate tide description in the China Seas, the 2-dimensional nonlinear numerical Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is employed to incorporate in situ tidal measurements both from tide gauges and TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) derived datasets by means of the variational adjoint approach in such a way that unknown internal model parameters, bottom topography, friction coefficients and open boundary conditions, for example, are adjusted during the process. The numerical model is used as a forward model. After the along-track T/P data are processed, two classical methods, i.e. harmonic and response analysis, are implemented to estimate the tide from such datasets with a domain covering the model area extending from 0 to 41N in latitude and from 99E to 142E in longitude. And the results of these two methods are compared and interpreted. The numerical simulation is performed for 16 major constituents. In the data assimilation experiments, three types of unknown parameters (water depth, bottom friction and tidal open boundary conditions in the model equations) are chosen as control variables. Among the various types of data assimilation experiments, the calibration of water depth brings the most promising results. By comparing the results with selected tide gauge data, the average absolute errors are decreased from 7.9 cm to 6.8 cm for amplitude and from 13.0 to 9.0 for phase with respect to the semidiurnal tide M2 constituent, which is the largest tidal constituent in the model area. After the data assimilation experiment is performed, the comparison between model results and tide gauge observation for water levels shows that the RMS errors decrease by 9 cm for a total of 14 stations, mostly selected along the coast of Mainland China, when a one-month period is considered, and the correlation coefficients improve for most tidal stations among these stations.
Correlation Study Between Suspended Particulate Matter and DOAS Data
SI Fuqi, LIU Jianguo, XIE Pinghua, ZHANG Yujun, LIU Wenqing, Hiroaki KUZE, Nofel LAGROSAS, Nobuo TAKEUCHI
2006, 23(3): 461-467. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0461-z
Continuous data of aerosol optical thickness monitored using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) are correlated with the concentration of ground-measured suspended particulate matter (SPM). A high correlation is found between the DOAS and the ground SPM data, making it possible to calculate the mass extinction efficiency of the aerosols in the atmosphere. It is found that the value of mean mass extinction efficiency (MEE) varies over a range of 2.6–13.7m2 g?1, with smaller and larger values occurring for size distributions dominated by coarse and fine particles, respectively.
Characteristics of Carbonaceous Particles in Beijing During Winter and Summer 2003
YU Jianhua, CHEN Tian, Benjamin GUINOT, Helene CACHIER, YU Tong, LIU Wenqing, WANG Xin
2006, 23(3): 468-473. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0468-5
Campaigns were conducted to measure Organic Carbon (OC) and Elemental Carbon (EC) in PM2.5 during winter and summer 2003 in Beijing. Modest differences of PM2.5 and PM10 mean concentrations were observed between the winter and summer campaigns. The mean PM2.5/PM10 ratio in both seasons was around 60%, indicating PM2.5 contributed significantly to PM10. The mean concentrations of OC and EC in PM2.5 were 11.2±7.5 and 6.0±5.0 μgm?3 for the winter campaign, and 9.4±2.1 and 4.3±3.0 μgm?3 for the summer campaign, respectively. Diurnal concentrations of OC and EC in PM2.5 were found high at night and low during the daytime in winter, and characterized by an obvious minimum in the summer afternoon. The mean OC/EC ratio was 1.87±0.09 for winter and 2.39±0.49 for summer. The higher OC/EC ratio in summer indicates some formation of Secondary Organic Carbon (SOC). The estimated SOC was 2.8 μg m?3 for winter and 4.2 μg m?3 for summer.
Derivation of Regression Coefficients for Sea Surface Temperature Retrieval over East Asia
Myoung-Hwan AHN, Eun-Ha SOHN, Byong-Jun HWANG, Chu-Yong CHUNG, Xiangqian WU
2006, 23(3): 474-486. doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0474-7
Among the regression-based algorithms for deriving SST from satellite measurements, regionally optimized algorithms normally perform better than the corresponding global algorithm. In this paper, three algorithms are considered for SST retrieval over the East Asia region (15–55N, 105–170E), including the multi-channel algorithm (MCSST), the quadratic algorithm (QSST), and the Pathfinder algorithm (PFSST). All algorithms are derived and validated using collocated buoy and Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS-5) observations from 1997 to 2001. An important part of the derivation and validation of the algorithms is the quality control procedure for the buoy SST data and an improved cloud screening method for the satellite brightness temperature measurements. The regionally optimized MCSST algorithm shows an overall improvement over the global algorithm, removing the bias of about ?0.13C and reducing the root-mean-square difference (rmsd) from 1.36C to 1.26C. The QSST is only slightly better than the MCSST. For both algorithms, a seasonal dependence of the remaining error statistics is still evident. The Pathfinder approach for deriving a season-specific set of coefficients, one for August to October and one for the rest of the year, provides the smallest rmsd overall that is also stable over time.