2008 Vol. 25, No. 1

Display Method:
2008, 25(1): 1-10. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0001-0
[Abstract](1407) [PDF 397KB](1835)
Abstract:
The broadband diffuse radiation method is improved to retrieve the aerosol refractive index imaginary part (AIP) and broadband (400--1000 nm mean) single scattering albedo (SSA). In this method, four sets of SSA selection criteria are proposed for quality control. The method is used to retrieve AIP, SSA and absorptive optical thickness (AbOT) from routine hourly-exposed pyrheliometer and paranometer measurements over 11 sites (meteorological observatories) in China during 1998--2003. Apart from one suburban site (Ejin Qi), the other urban sites are all located around big or medium cities. As shown in the retrieval results, annual mean SSA during 1998--2003 changes from 0.941 (Wuhan) to 0.849 (Lanzhou), and AIP from 0.0054 to 0.0203. The 11-site average annual mean SSA and AIP are 0.898 and 0.0119, respectively. SSA during winter is smaller for most sites. There is an evidently positive correlation between SSA and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) for all sites. There is also a positive correlation between SSA and relative humidity for most sites, but a negative correlation for a few sites, such as Kashi and \"Ur\"umqi in Northwest China.The broadband diffuse radiation method is improved to retrieve the aerosol refractive index imaginary part (AIP) and broadband (400--1000 nm mean) single scattering albedo (SSA). In this method, four sets of SSA selection criteria are proposed for quality control. The method is used to retrieve AIP, SSA and absorptive optical thickness (AbOT) from routine hourly-exposed pyrheliometer and paranometer measurements over 11 sites (meteorological observatories) in China during 1998--2003. Apart from one suburban site (Ejin Qi), the other urban sites are all located around big or medium cities. As shown in the retrieval results, annual mean SSA during 1998--2003 changes from 0.941 (Wuhan) to 0.849 (Lanzhou), and AIP from 0.0054 to 0.0203. The 11-site average annual mean SSA and AIP are 0.898 and 0.0119, respectively. SSA during winter is smaller for most sites. There is an evidently positive correlation between SSA and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) for all sites. There is also a positive correlation between SSA and relative humidity for most sites, but a negative correlation for a few sites, such as Kashi and \"Ur\"umqi in Northwest China.
2008, 25(1): 11-23. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0011-y
[Abstract](2213) [PDF 940KB](2532)
Abstract:
In this paper, it is elucidated that the total deformation (TD), defined as the square root of the sum of squared stretching deformation and squared shearing deformation, is an invariant independent of the coordinate system used. An idealized flow field is then constructed to demonstrate the confluence effect of a non-divergent and irrotational deformation field on moisture transport. To explore the characteristics and role of TD, one heavy rainfall case that occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MRYR) over China, associated with a front with shear line, is analyzed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output data. It is found that right before the occurrence of precipitation, the effect of the confluence induced by deformation on moisture transport provides a favorable condition for precipitation. During the precipitation, both location and orientation of the zone of large TD coincide with the confluent shear line. The rainbands are nearly parallel with, and located lightly to the south of the zones of large TD and the confluent shear line. The TD in the lower troposphere increases in value as precipitation persists. When TD approaches its maximal value, the next 6-hour precipitation reaches its peak correspondingly. A tendency equation for TD is derived. The analysis of linear correlation and RMS difference between individual terms in the total deformation equation and the sum of the terms shows that the pressure gradient plays a major role in determining the local change of total deformation.
2008, 25(1): 24-30. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0024-6
[Abstract](1381) [PDF 757KB](1400)
Abstract:
Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the interdecadal variability of Hadley circulation (HC) and its association with East Asian temperature in winter are investigated. Results indicate that the Northern Hemisphere winter HC underwent apparent change in the 1970s, with transition occurring around 1976/77. Along with interdecadal variability of HC, its linkage to surface air temperature (SAT) in East Asia also varied decadally, from weak relations to strong relations. Such a change may be related to the interaction between HC and the atmospheric circulation system over the Philippines, which is associated with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Before the 1970s, the connection between HC and the anticyclonic circulation around the Philippines was insignificant, but after the late 1970s their linkage entered a strong regime. The intensification of this connection may therefore be responsible for the strong relations between HC and East Asian winter temperatures after the late 1970s.
2008, 25(1): 31-42. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0031-7
[Abstract](1096) [PDF 1266KB](2109)
Abstract:
Introducing the surface properties [initial vortex, ground temperature and surface momentum impact height (SMIH)] for the boundary conditions, dust-devil-scale large eddy simulations (LES) were carried out. Given three parameters of initial vortex, ground temperature and the SMIH based on Sinclair's observation, the dust devil physical characteristics, such as maximum tangential velocity, updraft velocity, pressure drop in the inner core region, and even reverse flow at the top of the core region, are predicted, and are found to be close to the observations, thus demonstrating the ability of the simulation. The physical characteristics of different modeled dust devils are reproduced and compared to the values predicted by Renno et al.' theory. Even for smaller temperature differences or weaker buoyancy, severe dust devils may be formed by strong incipient vortices. It is also indicated that SMIH substantially affects the near-surface shape of terrestrial dust devils.
2008, 25(1): 43-58. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0043-3
[Abstract](1126) [PDF 564KB](1903)
Abstract:
A new soil moisture dataset from direct gravimetric measurements within the top 50-cm soil layers at 178 soil moisture stations in China covering the period 1981--1998 are used to study the long-term and seasonal trends of soil moisture variations, as well as estimate the temporal and spatial scales of soil moisture for different soil layers. Additional datasets of precipitation and temperature difference between land surface and air (TDSA) are analyzed to gain further insight into the changes of soil moisture. There are increasing trends for the top 10 cm, but decreasing trends for the top 50 cm of soil layers in most regions. Trends in precipitation appear to dominantly influence trends in soil moisture in both cases. Seasonal variation of soil moisture is mainly controlled by precipitation and evaporation, and in some regions can be affected by snow cover in winter. Timescales of soil moisture variation are roughly 1--3 months and increase with soil depth. Further influences of TDSA and precipitation on soil moisture in surface layers, rather than in deeper layers, cause this phenomenon. Seasonal variations of temporal scales for soil moisture are region-dependent and consistent in both layer depths. Spatial scales of soil moisture range from 200--600 km, with topography also having an affect on these. Spatial scales of soil moisture in plains are larger than in mountainous areas. In the former, the spatial scale of soil moisture follows the spatial patterns of precipitation and evaporation, whereas in the latter, the spatial scale is controlled by topography.
2008, 25(1): 59-71. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0059-8
[Abstract](1214) [PDF 4371KB](1576)
Abstract:
We present comparisons of the NO2 regional Chemical Transport Model (CTM) simulations over Northeastern North America during the time period from May to September, 1998 with hourly surface NO2 observations and the NO2 columns retrieved from the GOME (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment) satellite instrument. The model calculations were performed using the Mesoscale Meteorological Model 5 (MM5), Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions (SMOKE), and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling systems, using the emission data from the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) databases of 1996 (U.S.) and 1995 (Canada). The major objectives were to assess the performance of the CMAQ model and the accuracy of the emissions inventories as they affected the simulations of this important short-lived atmospheric species. The modeled (NCMAQ) and measured (NGOME) NO2 column amounts, as well as their temporal variations, agreed reasonably well. The absolute differences (NCMAQ--NGOME) across the domain were between ±3.0×1015 molecules cm-2, but they were less than ±1.0×1015 molecules cm-2 over the majority (80%) of the domain studied. The overall correlation coefficient between the measurements and the simulations was 0.75. The differences were mainly ascribed to a combination of inaccurate emission data for the CTM and the uncertainties in the GOME retrievals. Of these, the former were the more easily identifiable.
2008, 25(1): 72-82. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0072-y
[Abstract](1056) [PDF 820KB](1273)
Abstract:
Different multimodel ensemble methods are used to forecast precipitations in China, 1998, and their forecast skills are compared with those of individual models. Datasets were obtained from monthly simulations of eight models during the period of January 1979 to December 1998 from the Climate of the 20th Century Experiment" (20C3M) for the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report. Climate Research Unit (CRU) data were chosen for the observation analysis field. Root mean square (RMS) error and correlation coefficients (R) are used to measure the forecast skills. In addition, superensemble forecasts based on different input data and weights are analyzed. Results show that for original data, superensemble forecasting based on multiple linear regression (MLR) performs best. However, for bias-corrected data, the superensemble based on singular value decomposition (SVD) produces a lower RMS error and a higher $R$ than in the MLR superensemble. It is an interesting result that the SVD superensemble based on bias-corrected data performs better than the MLR superensemble, but that the SVD superensemble based on original data is inferior to the corresponding MLR superensemble. In addition, weights calculated by different data formats are shown to affect the forecast skills of the superensembles. In comparison with the MLR superensemble, a slightly significant effect is present in the SVD superensemble. However, both the SVD and MLR superensembles based on different weight formats outperform the ensemble mean of bias-corrected data.
2008, 25(1): 83-88. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0083-8
[Abstract](1272) [PDF 170KB](1770)
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This paper proposes useful guidance on the choice of threshold for binary forecasts. In weather forecast systems, the probabilistic forecast cannot be used directly when estimated too smoothly. In this case, the binary forecast, whether a meteorological event will occur or not, is preferable to the probabilistic forecast. A threshold is needed to generate a binary forecast, and the guidance in this paper encompasses the use of skill scores for the choice of threshold according to the forecast pattern. The forecast pattern consists of distribution modes of estimated probabilities, occurrence rates of observations, and variation modes. This study is performed via Monte-Carlo simulation, with 48 forecast patterns considered. Estimated probabilities are generated by random variate sampling from five distributions separately. Varying the threshold from 0 to 1, binary forecasts are generated by threshold. For the assessment of binary forecast models, a 2×2 contingency table is used and four skill scores (Heidke skill score, hit rate, true skill statistic, and threat score) are compared for each forecast pattern. As a result, guidance on the choice of skill score to find the optimal threshold is proposed.
2008, 25(1): 89-95. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0089-2
[Abstract](1112) [PDF 477KB](1472)
Abstract:
A continuous measurement of number size distributions and chemical composition of aerosol particles was conducted in Beijing in a dust storm event during 21--26 March 2001. The number concentration of coarse particles (>2 μm) increased more significantly than fine particles (<2 μm) during the dust storm due to dust weather, while the anthropogenic aerosols collected during the non-dust-storm period tended to be associated with fine particles. Elemental compositions were analyzed by using proton-induced X-ray emission (PIXE). The results show that 20 elements in the dust storm were much higher than in the non-dust-storm period. The calculated soil dust concentration during the dust storm was, on average, 251.8 μg m-3, while it was only 52.1 μg m-3 on non-dust-storm days. The enrichment factors for Mg, Al, P, K, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, Cl, Cu, Pb, and Zn show small variations between the dust storm and the non-dust-storm period, while those for Ca, Ni and Cr in the dust storm were much lower than those in the non-dust-storm period due to significant local emission sources. A high concentration and enrichment factor for S were observed during the dust storm, which implies that the dust particles were contaminated by aerosol particles from anthropogenic emissions during the long-range transport. A statistical analysis shows that the elemental composition of particles collected during the dust storm in Beijing were better correlated with those of desert soil colleted from desert regions in Inner Mongolia. Air mass back-trajectory analysis further confirmed that this dust storm event could be identified as streaks of dust plumes originating from Inner Mongolia.
2008, 25(1): 96-106. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0096-3
[Abstract](1159) [PDF 384KB](1504)
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Brightness temperature anomalies measured by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar-orbiting series are suited to estimate tropical cyclone (TC) intensity by virtue of their ability to assess changes in tropospheric warm core structure in the presence of clouds. Analysis of the measurements from different satellites shows that the variable horizontal resolution of the instrument has significant effects on the observed brightness temperature anomalies. With the aim to decrease these effects on TC intensity estimation more easily and effectively, a new simple correction algorithm, which is related to the product of the brightness temperature gradient near the TC center and the size of the field-of-view (FOV) observing the TC center, is proposed to modify the observed anomalies. Without other measurements, the comparison shows that the performance of the new algorithm is better than that of the traditional, physically-based algorithm. Furthermore, based on the correction algorithm, a new scheme, in which the brightness temperature anomalies at 31.4 GHz and 89 GHz accounting for precipitation effects are directly used as the predictors with those at 54.94 GHz and 55.5 GHz, is developed to estimate TC intensity in the western North Pacific basin. The collocated AMSU-A observations from NOAA-16 with the best track (BT) intensity data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in 2002--2003 and in 2004 are used respectively to develop and validate regression coefficients. For the independent validation dataset, the scheme yields 8.4 hPa of the root mean square error and 6.6 hPa of the mean absolute error. For the 81 collocated cases in the western North Pacific basin and for the 24 collocated cases in the Atlantic basin, compared to the BT data, the standard deviations of the estimation differences of the results are 15% and 11% less than those of the CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison) TC intensity AMSU estimation products.
2008, 25(1): 107-116. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0107-4
[Abstract](1123) [PDF 618KB](1529)
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Heat flux data collected from the Baiyangdian Heterogeneous Field Experiment were analyzed using the footprint method. High resolution (25 m) Landsat-5 satellite imaging was used to determine the land cover as one of four surface types: farmland, lake, wetland, or village. Data from two observation sites in September 2005 were used. One site (Wangjiazhai) was characterized by highly heterogeneous surfaces in the central area of the Baiyangdian: lake/wetland. The other site (Xiongxian) was on land with more uniform surface cover. An improved Eulerian analytical flux footprint model was used to determine source areas" of the heat fluxes measured at towers located at each site from surrounding landscapes of mixed surface types. In relative terms results show that wetland and lake areas generally contributed most to the observed heat flux at Wangjiazhai, while farmland contributed most at Xiongxian. Given the areal distribution of surface type contributions, calculations were made to obtain the magnitudes of the heat flux from lake, wetland and farmland to the total observed flux and apportioned contributions of each surface type to the sensible and latent heat fluxes. Results show that on average the sensible heat flux from wetland and farmland were comparable over the diurnal cycle, while the latent heat flux from farmland was somewhat larger by about 30-50 W m-2 during daytime. The latent and sensible fluxes from the lake source in daytime were about 50 W m-2 and 100 W m-2 less, respectively, than from wetland and farmland. The results are judged reasonable and serve to demonstrate the potential for flux apportionment over heterogeneous surfaces.
2008, 25(1): 117-125. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0117-2
[Abstract](1346) [PDF 3399KB](1631)
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The interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies are examined using the autumn precipitation data of 160 stations in China and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1951 to 2004. Results indicate a strong interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its positive correlation with the autumn western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). In the flood years, the WPSH ridge line lies over the south of South China and the strengthened ridge over North Asia triggers cold air to move southward. Furthermore, there exists a significantly anomalous updraft and cyclone with the northward stream strengthened at 850 hPa and a positive anomaly center of meridional moisture transport strengthening the northward warm and humid water transport over South China. These display the reverse feature in drought years. The autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China correlates positively with SST in the western Pacific and North Pacific, whereas a negative correlation occurs in the South Indian Ocean in July. The time of the strongest lag-correlation coefficients between SST and autumn precipitation over South China is about two months, implying that the SST of the three ocean areas in July might be one of the predictors for autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China. Discussion about the linkage among July SSTs in the western Pacific, the autumn WPSH and autumn precipitation over South China suggests that SST anomalies might contribute to autumn precipitation through its close relation to the autumn WPSH.
2008, 25(1): 126-138. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0126-1
[Abstract](1106) [PDF 1833KB](1685)
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The ability of seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models to reproduce East Asian monthly surface temperature and precipitation climatologies during 1961--1990 is evaluated. January and July climate differences during the 2050s and 2090s relative to 1961--1990 projected by the seven-model ensemble under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios are then briefly discussed. These projections, together with the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentrations under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, are subsequently used to drive the biome model BIOME3 to simulate potential vegetation distribution in China during the 2050s and 2090s. It is revealed that potential vegetation belts during the 2050s shift northward greatly in central and eastern China compared to those during 1961--1990. In contrast, potential vegetation change is slight in western China on the whole. The spatial pattern of potential vegetation during the 2090s is generally similar to that during the 2050s, but the range of potential vegetation change against 1961--1990 is more extensive during the 2090s than the 2050s, particularly in western China. Additionally, there exists model-dependent uncertainty of potential vegetation change under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s, which is due to the scatter of projected climate change by the models. The projected change in potential vegetation under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s is attributable to surface temperature change south of 35N and to the joint changes of surface temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration north of 35N.
2008, 25(1): 139-156. doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0139-9
[Abstract](1146) [PDF 5758KB](1841)
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Long-term integrations are conducted using the Spectral Atmospheric Model (referred to as SAMIL), which was developed in the Laboratory for Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), with different resolutions to investigate sensitivity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulations to the model's resolution (horizontal and vertical). Three resolutions of the model, R15L9, R42L9 and R42L26, with identical physical processes, all produced the basic observed features of the MJO, including the spatiotemporal space-time spectra and eastward propagation. No fundamental differences among these simulations were found. This indicates that the model resolution is not a determining factor for simulating the MJO. Detailed differences among these modeling results suggest, however, that model resolution can substantially affect the simulated MJO in certain aspects. For instance, at a lower horizontal resolution, high frequency disturbances were weaker and the structures of the simulated MJO were better defined to a certain extent. A higher vertical resolution led to a more realistic spatiotemporal spectrum and spatial distribution of MJO precipitation. Meanwhile, increasing the model's resolution improved simulation of the climatology. However, increasing the resolution should be based on improving the cumulus parameterization scheme.