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## 2009 Vol. 26, No. 3

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2009, 26(3): 373-380. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0373-9
[Abstract](813) [PDF 343KB](1507)
Abstract:
This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.
2009, 26(3): 381-389. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0381-9
[Abstract](819) [PDF 316KB](1331)
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In this paper, by using the sounding data collected in LOPEX05, we have analyzed the vertical atmospheric structure and boundary layer characteristics of temperature and humidity in the late summer over the east Gansu loess plateau. The results show that the bottom of the stratosphere is at about 16500 m and varies between 14000 m and 18000 m above the ground. The center of the westerly jet is located between 8300 m and 14300 m above the ground and its direction moves between 260o and 305o. There is an inverse humidity layer at about 3000 m height above the ground. The maximum of the air temperature occurs at 1700 LST in the layer below 800 m above the ground. The inversion layer is relatively thick. The time that the maximum of the vapor occurs is not the same for different layers. The depth of the atmospheric boundary layer can reach about 1000 m and the depth of the stable boundary layer can be 650 m.
2009, 26(3): 390-402. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0390-8
[Abstract](642) [PDF 531KB](1462)
Abstract:
This study examines spatial and time evolutions of the principal constituents of the Tunisian background aerosols under Sirocco wind circulations. Aerosols coming from the Sahara Desert were found to be loaded with particulate matter, especially silicon. The aerosols were shown to have varying geochemical behaviour along the South-North" displacement of the Saharan plumes, depending on the wind flow characteristics, geomorphologic features and the nature of soils swept by the wind. In the south and the center part of the country, the transfer of aerosol constituents to the soil (by gravity and/or impaction) was probably predominated by localized enrichment phenomena. The latter are reinforced by the effect of turbulent winds over bare soils, wind wakes and probably selective disintegration, especially in the vicinity of the geomorphologic features of central Tunisia. These relatively high features, extending over important distances, appear to be of paramount importance for the phenomena of redistribution of aerosol constituents even during periods without Sirocco wind circulations. In the northern section of the country, aerosol constituent concentrations dropped to almost 50%, in spite of the abundance of localized turbulent winds. This may be explained by the effect of forests and the relatively dense vegetation cover, which clearly reinforces the transfer phenomena to the soil and the attenuate of dust entrainment.
2009, 26(3): 403-412. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0403-7
Abstract:
Snow albedo is an important factor influencing the snow surface energy budget and snow melting, yet uncertainties remain in the calculation of spectrally resolved snow surface albedo because the spectral composition (visible versus near infrared) of the incident solar radiation is seldom available. The influence of the spectral composition of the incoming solar radiation on the snow surface albedo, snow surface energy budget, and final snow ablation is investigated through sensitivity experiments of four snow seasons at two open sites in the Alps by using a multi-layer Snow-Atmosphere-Soil-Transfer scheme (SAST). Since the snow albedo in the near infrared (NIR) spectral band is significantly lower than that in the visible (VIS) band, and almost the entire NIR part of the solar radiation is absorbed in the top layer of the snow pack, given a fixed amount of incoming solar radiation, a lower VIS/NIR ratio implies that more NIR radiation is reaching the ground surface and more is absorbed by the top layer of the snow pack, therefore, speeding up the snow melting and increasing the surface runoff, although a lesser part of the solar radiation in the visible band is transmitted into and trapped by the sub-layer of the snow pack. The above VIS/NIR ratio effect of the incoming solar radiation can result in a couple of days difference in the timing of snow ablation and it becomes more significant in late spring when the total solar radiation is intensified with seasonal evolution. Snow aging also slightly intensifies this VIS/NIR ratio effect.
2009, 26(3): 413-422. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0413-5
Abstract:
By using a surface air temperature index (SATI) averaged over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), investigation is conducted on the short-term climate variation associated with the interannual air warming (or cooling) over the TP in each summer month. Evidence suggests that the SATI is associated with a consistent teleconnection pattern extending from the TP to central-western Asia and southeastern Europe. Associated rainfall changes include, for a warming case, a drought in northern India in May and June, and a stronger mei-yu front in June. The latter is due to an intensified upper-level northeasterly in eastern China and a wetter and warmer condition over the eastern TP. In the East Asian regions, the time-space distributions of the correlation patterns between SATI and rainfall are more complex and exhibit large differences from month to month. Some studies have revealed a close relationship between the anomalous heating over the TP and the rainfall anomaly along the Yangtze River valley appearing in the summer on a seasonal mean time-scale, whereas in the present study, this relationship only appears in June and the signal's significance becomes weaker after the long-term trend in the data was excluded. Close correlations between SATI and the convection activity and SST also occur in the western Pacific in July and August: A zonally-elongated warm tone in the SST in the northwestern Pacific seems to be a passive response of the associated circulation related to a warm SATI. The SATI-associated teleconnection pattern provides a scenario consistently linking the broad summer rainfall anomalies in Europe, central-western Asia, India, and East Asia.
2009, 26(3): 423-437. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0423-3
Abstract:
Using a detailed, fully coupled chemistry climate model (CCM), the effect of increasing stratospheric H2O on ozone and temperature is investigated. Different CCM time-slice runs have been performed to investigate the chemical and radiative impacts of an assumed 2 ppmv increase in H2O. The chemical effects of this H2O increase lead to an overall decrease of the total column ozone (TCO) by ～1% in the tropics and by a maximum of 12% at southern high latitudes. At northern high latitudes, the TCO is increased by only up to 5% due to stronger transport in the Arctic. A 2-ppmv H2O increase in the model's radiation scheme causes a cooling of the tropical stratosphere of no more than 2 K, but a cooling of more than 4 K at high latitudes. Consequently, the TCO is increased by about 2%--6%. Increasing stratospheric H2O, therefore, cools the stratosphere both directly and indirectly, except in the polar regions where the temperature responds differently due to feedbacks between ozone and H2O changes. The combined chemical and radiative effects of increasing H2O may give rise to more cooling in the tropics and middle latitudes but less cooling in the polar stratosphere. The combined effects of H2O increases on ozone tend to offset each other, except in the Arctic stratosphere where both the radiative and chemical impacts give rise to increased ozone. The chemical and radiative effects of increasing H2O cause dynamical responses in the stratosphere with an evident hemispheric asymmetry. In terms of ozone recovery, increasing the stratospheric H2O is likely to accelerate the recovery in the northern high latitudes and delay it in the southern high latitudes. The modeled ozone recovery is more significant between 2000--2050 than between 2050--2100, driven mainly by the larger relative change in chlorine in the earlier period.
2009, 26(3): 438-450. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0438-9
[Abstract](1147) [PDF 1131KB](1200)
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Recently reported results indicate that small amplitude and small scale initial errors grow rapidly and subsequently contaminate short-term deterministic mesoscale forecasts. This rapid error growth is dependent on not only moist convection but also the flow regime. In this study, the mesoscale predictability and error growth of mei-yu heavy rainfall is investigated by simulating a particular precipitation event along the mei-yu front on 4--6 July 2003 in eastern China. Due to the multi-scale character of the mei-yu front and scale interactions, the error growth of mei-yu heavy rainfall forecasts is markedly different from that in middle-latitude moist baroclinic systems. The optimal growth of the errors has a relatively wide spectrum, though it gradually migrates with time from small scale to mesoscale. During the whole period of this heavy rainfall event, the error growth has three different stages, which similar to the evolution of 6-hour accumulated precipitation. Multi-step error growth manifests as an increase of the amplitude of errors, the horizontal scale of the errors, or both. The vertical profile of forecast errors in the developing convective system indicates two peaks, which correspond with convective instability and the moist physics. The error growth for the mei-yu heavy rainfall is concentrated inside the mei-yu front, and related to moist convective instability and scale interaction.
2009, 26(3): 451-464. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0451-z
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the performance of the 26-level version of the SAMIL/LASG GCM (R42/L26) in simulating the seasonal cycle and perpetual winter mean stratospheric circulation as well as its variability by comparing them with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The results show that the model is capable of reproducing many key features of the climatology and seasonal variation of the stratospheric circulation despite that the model's mean polar vortex is stronger and more zonally symmetric compared to the observation. Further diagnosis of the results from a perpetual-January-run of the SAMIL/LASG GCM indicates that the dominant winter-season oscillation mode in the model's stratosphere exhibits a similar inter-seasonal timescale with similar spatial patterns as those inferred from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In particular, the simulated polar vortex oscillation mode exhibits a dominant inter-seasonal timescale of about 120 days, and is accompanied with the simultaneous poleward and downward propagation of temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and the equatorward propagation of temperature anomalies in the troposphere. More encouragingly, the 26-layer version of the SAMIL/LASG GCM is able to produce three strong Stratospheric Sudden Warming events during the 1825 days of perpetual-January integration, with the polar westerly jet completely reversed for a few weeks without imposing any prescribed anomalous forcing at the lower boundary.
2009, 26(3): 465-470. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0465-6
[Abstract](718) [PDF 543KB](1244)
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The authors apply the technique of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) as a means of providing initial perturbations for ensemble forecasting by using a barotropic quasi-geostrophic (QG) model in a perfect-model scenario. Ensemble forecasts for the medium range (14 days) are made from the initial states perturbed by CNOPs and singular vectors (SVs). 13 different cases have been chosen when analysis error is a kind of fast growing error. Our experiments show that the introduction of CNOP provides better forecast skill than the SV method. Moreover, the spread-skill relationship reveals that the ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP appear superior to those obtained by SVs from day 6 to day 14. Rank diagrams are adopted to compare the new method with the SV approach. The results illustrate that the introduction of CNOP has higher reliability for medium-range ensemble forecasts.
2009, 26(3): 471-479. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0471-8
[Abstract](830) [PDF 690KB](1253)
Abstract:
Based on an improved objective cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, decadal variations in extratropical cyclones in northern East Asia are studied by using the ECMWF 40 Year Reanalysis (ERA-40) sea-level pressure data during 1958--2001. The results reveal that extratropical cyclone activity has displayed clear seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in northern East Asia. Spring is the season when cyclones occur most frequently. The spatial distribution of extratropical cyclones shows that cyclones occur mainly within the 40o--50oN latitudinal band in northern East Asia, and the most frequent region of occurrence is in Mongolia. Furthermore, this study also reveals the fact that the frequency of extratropical cyclones has significantly decreased in the lower latitude region of northern East Asia during 1958--2001, but decadal variability has dominated in higher latitude bands, with frequent cyclone genesis. The intensity of extratropical cyclones has decreased on an annual and seasonal basis. Variation of the annual number of cyclones in northern East Asia is associated with the mean intensity of the baroclinic frontal zone, which is influenced by climate warming in the higher latitudes. Moreover, the dipole structure of extratopical cyclone change, with increases in the north and decreases in the southern part of northern East Asia, is related to the northward movement of the baroclinic frontal zone on either side of 110oE.
2009, 26(3): 480-492. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0480-7
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We evaluate the performance of GAMIL1.1.1 in a 27-year forced simulation of the summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over East Asia (EA)-western North Pacific (WNP). The assessment is based on two measures: climatological ISO (CISO) and transient ISO (TISO). CISO is the ISO component that is phase-locked to the annual cycle and describes seasonal march. TISO is the ISO component that varies year by year. The model reasonably captures many observed features of the ISO, including the stepwise northward advance of the rain belt of CISO, the dominant periodicities of TISO in both the South China Sea-Philippine Sea (SCS-PS) and the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), the northward propagation of 30--50-day TISO and the westward propagation of the 12--25-day TISO mode over the SCS-PS, and the zonal propagating features of three major TISO modes over the YRB. However, the model has notable deficiencies. These include the early onset of the South China Sea monsoon associated with CISO, too fast northward propagation of CISO from 20oN to 40oN and the absence of the CISO signal south of 10oN, the deficient eastward propagation of the 30--50-day TISO mode and the absence of a southward propagation in the YRB TISO modes. The authors found that the deficiencies in the ISO simulation are closely related to the model's biases in the mean states, suggesting that the improvement of the model mean state is crucial for realistic simulation of the intraseasonal variation.
2009, 26(3): 493-502. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0493-2
[Abstract](728) [PDF 780KB](1100)
Abstract:
The present study analyzes the differences in spatial and temporal variations of surface temperatures between early and late onset years of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM). It is found that when the land surface temperature north of 40oN is lower (higher) and the sea surface temperature over the South China Sea-western North Pacific (SCS-WNP) is higher (lower) in winter, the onset of the SCSSM begins earlier (later). When the land surface temperature north of 40oN is higher (lower) and the sea surface temperature over the SCS-WNP is lower (higher) in spring, the onset of the SCSSM occurs earlier (later). The reason why the anomalies of the land surface temperatures north of 40oN can influence the atmospheric circulation is investigated by analysis of the wind and temperature fields. In order to verify the mechanisms of influence over the land and sea surface temperature distribution patterns and test the ability of the p-σ regional climate model (p-σ RCM9) to simulate the SCSSM onset, three types of years with early, normal, and late SCSSM onset are selected and the SCSSM regimes are numerically simulated. According to the results obtained from five sensitive experiments, when the land surface temperature is higher in the eastern part, north of 40oN, and lower in the western part, north of 40oN, and it rises faster in the eastern coastal regions and the Indian Peninsula, while the sea surface temperatures over the SCS-WNP are lower, the early onset of the SCSSM can be expected.
2009, 26(3): 503-512. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0503-4
[Abstract](675) [PDF 287KB](1088)
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The seasonal dynamics of soil respiration in steppe (S. bungeana), desert shrub (A. ordosica), and shrub-perennial (A. ordosica + C. komarovii) communities were investigated during the growth season (May to October) in 2006; their environmental driving factors were also analyzed. In the three communities, soil respiration showed similar characteristics in their growth seasons, with peak respiration values in July and August owing to suitable temperature and soil moisture conditions during this period. Meanwhile, changes in soil respiration were greatly influenced by temperatures and surface soil moistures. Soil water content at a depth of 0 to 10 cm was identified as the key environmental factor affecting the variation in soil respiration in the steppe. In contrast, in desert shrub and shrub-perennial communities, the dynamics of soil respiration was significantly influenced by air temperature. Similarly, the various responses of soil respiration to environmental factors may be attributed to the different soil textures and distribution patterns of plant roots. In desert ecosystems, precipitation results in soil respiration pulses. Soil carbon dioxide (CO2) effluxes greatly increased after rainfall rewetting in all of the ecosystems under study. However, the precipitation pulse effect differed across the ecosystem. We propose that this may be a result of a reverse effect from the soil texture.
2009, 26(3): 513-522. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0513-2
Abstract:
Using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) humidity profiles, rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Global Precipitation Index (GPI), Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT) satellite-observed surface winds, and SST from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for NASA's Earth Observing System (AMSR_E), we analyzed the structure of the summer quasi-biweekly mode (QBM) over the western Pacific in 2003--2004. We find that the signal of 10--20-day oscillations in the western Pacific originates from the Philippine Sea, and propagates northwestward toward South China. The AIRS data reveal that the boundary-layer moisture provides preconditioning for QBM propagation, and leads the mid-troposphere moisture during the entire QBM cycle. The positive SST anomaly leads or is in-phase with the boundary-layer moistening, and may be a major contributor. Most likely, the 10--20-day SST anomaly positively feeds back to the atmosphere by moistening the boundary layer, destabilizing the troposphere, and leading the QBM to propagate northwestward in the western North Pacific. However, the ECMWF/TOGA (Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere) analysis does not display boundary-layer (BL) moisture anomalies leading the mid-troposphere moisture.
2009, 26(3): 523-542. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0523-0
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Typhoon Rananim (2004) was one of the severest typhoons landfalling the Chinese mainland from 1996 to 2004. It brought serious damage and induced prodigious economical loss. Using a new generation of mesoscale model, named the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system, with 1.667 km grid horizontal spacing on the finest nested mesh, Rananim was successfully simulated in terms of track, intensity, eye, eyewall, and spiral rainbands. We compared the structures of Rananim to those of hurricanes in previous studies and observations to assess the validity of simulation. The three-dimensional (3D) dynamic and thermal structures of eye and eyewall were studied based on the simulated results. The focus was investigation of the characteristics of the vortex Rossby waves in the inner-core region. We found that the Rossby vortex waves propagate azimuthally upwind against the azimuthal mean tangential flow around the eyewall, and their period was longer than that of an air parcel moving within the azimuthal mean tangential flow. They also propagated outward against the boundary layer inflow of the azimuthal mean vortex. Futhermore, we studied the connection between the spiral potential vorticity (PV) bands and spiral rainbands, and found that the vortex Rossby waves played an important role in the formation process of spiral rainbands.
2009, 26(3): 543-552. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0543-9
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The regional climate model (RegCM3) and a tropospheric atmosphere chemistry model (TACM) were coupled, thus a regional climate chemistry modeling system (RegCCMS) was constructed, which was applied to investigate the spatial distribution of anthropogenic nitrate aerosols, indirect radiative forcing, as well as its climatic effect over China. TACM includes the thermodynamic equilibrium model ISORROPIA and a condensed gas-phase chemistry model. Investigations show that the concentration of nitrate aerosols is relatively high over North and East China with a maximum of 29 μg m-3 in January and 8 μg m-3 in July. Due to the influence of air temperature on thermodynamic equilibrium, wet scavenging of precipitation and the monsoon climate, there are obvious seasonal differences in nitrate concentrations. The average indirect radiative forcing at the tropopause due to nitrate aerosols is -1.63 W m-2 in January and -2.65 W m-2 in July, respectively. In some areas, indirect radiative forcing reaches $-$10 W m-2. Sensitivity tests show that nitrate aerosols make the surface air temperature drop and the precipitation reduce on the national level. The mean changes in surface air temperature and precipitation are -0.13 K and -0.01 mm d-1 in January and -0.09 K and -0.11 mm d-1 in July, respectively, showing significant differences in different regions.
2009, 26(3): 553-563. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0553-7
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In the summers of 2003 and 2007, eastern China suffered similar climate disasters with severe flooding in the Huaihe River valley and heat waves in the southern Yangtze River delta and South China. Using SST data and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from NOAA along with reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR, the 2002/03 and 2006/07 El Nino episodes in the central Pacific and their delayed impacts on the following early summertime climate anomalies of eastern China were analyzed. The possible physical progresses behaved as follows: Both of the moderate El Nino episodes matured in the central equatorial Pacific during the early winter. The zonal wind anomalies near the sea surface of the west-central equatorial Pacific excited equatorial Kelvin waves propagating eastward and affected the evolution of the El Ni\~no episodes. From spring to early summer, the concurring anomalous easterly winds in the central equatorial Pacific and the end of upwelling Kelvin waves propagating eastward in the western equatorial Pacific, favored the equatorial warm water both of the SST and the subsurface temperature in the western Pacific. These conditions favored the warm state of the western equatorial Pacific in the early summer for both cases of 2003 and 2007. Due to the active convection in the western equatorial Pacific in the early summer and the weak warm SST anomalies in the tropical western Pacific from spring to early summer, the convective activities in the western Pacific warm pool showed the pattern in which the anomalous strong convection only appeared over the southern regions of the tropical western Pacific warm pool, which effects the meridional shift of the western Pacific subtropical high in the summer. The physical progress of the delayed impacts of the El Ni\~no episodes in the central equatorial Pacific and their decaying evolution on the climate anomalies in eastern China were interpreted through the key role of special pattern for the heat convection in the tropical western Pacific warm pool and the response of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone.
2009, 26(3): 564-576. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0564-4
Abstract:
The aerosol optical properties and direct radiative forcing over the Mu Us desert of northern China, acquired through a CE318 sunphotometer of the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), are analyzed. The seasonal variations in the aerosol optical properties are examined. The effect of meteorological elements (pressure, temperature, water vapor pressure, relative humidity and wind speed) on the aerosol optical properties is also studied. Then, the sources and optical properties under two different cases, a dust event and a pollution event, are compared. The results show that the high aerosol optical depth (AOD) found in Yulin was mostly attributed to the occurrence of dust events in spring from the Mu Us desert and deserts of West China and Mongolia, as well as the impacts of anthropogenic pollutant particles from the middle part of China in the other seasons. The seasonal variation and the probability distribution of the radiative forcing and the radiative forcing efficiency at the surface and the top of the atmosphere are analyzed and regressed using the linear and Gaussian regression methods.
2009, 26(3): 577-584. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0577-z
[Abstract](658) [PDF 258KB](1012)
Abstract:
A set of new parameterizations for the friction velocity and temperature scale over gently sloped terrain and in calm synoptic conditions are theoretically derived. The friction velocity is found to be proportional to the product of the square root of the total accumulated heating in the boundary layer and the sinusoidal function of the slope angle, while the temperature scale is proportional to the product of the boundary layer depth, the sinusoidal function of the slope angle and the potential temperature gradient in the free atmosphere. Using the new friction velocity parameterization, together with a parameterization of eddy diffusivity and an initial potential temperature profile around sunrise, an improved parameterization for the thermally induced upslope flow profile is derived by solving the Prandtl equations. The upslope flow profile is found to be simply proportional to the friction velocity.
2009, 26(3): 585-598. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0585-z
[Abstract](678) [PDF 329KB](1112)
Abstract:
The goal of this paper is to quantitatively formulate some necessary conditions for the development of intense atmospheric vortices. Specifically, these criteria are discussed for tropical cyclones (TC) and polar lows (PL) by using bulk formulas for fluxes of momentum, sensible heating, and latent heating between the ocean and the atmosphere. The velocity scale is used in two forms: (1) as expressed through the buoyancy flux b and the Coriolis parameter lc for rotating fluids convection, and (2) as expressed with the cube of velocity times the drag coefficient through the formula for total kinetic energy dissipation in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the quasistationary case the dissipation equals the generation of the energy. In both cases the velocity scale can be expressed through temperature and humidity differences between the ocean and the atmosphere in terms of the reduced gravity, and both forms produce quite comparable velocity scales. Using parameters b and lc, we can form scales of the area and, by adding the mass of a unit air column, a scale of the total kinetic energy as well. These scales nicely explain the much smaller size of a PL, as compared to a TC, and the total kinetic energy of a TC is of the order 1018-1019 J. It will be shown that wind of 33 m s-1 is produced when the total enthalpy fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere are about 700 W m-2 for a TC and 1700 W m-2 for a PL, in association with the much larger role of the latent heat in the first case and the stricter geostrophic constraints and larger static stability in the second case. This replaces the mystical role of 26oC as a criterion for TC origin. The buoyancy flux, a product of the reduced gravity and the wind speed, together with the atmospheric static stability, determines the rate of the penetrating convection. It is known from the observations that the formation time for a PL reaching an altitude of 5--6 km can be only a few hours, and a day, or even half a day, for a TC reaching 15--18 km. These two facts allow us to construct curves on the plane of Ts and ΔT=Ts-Ta to determine possibilities for forming an intense vortex. Here, Ta is the atmospheric temperature at the height z=10 m. A PL should have ΔT>20oC in accordance with the observations and numerical simulations. The conditions for a TC are not so straightforward but our diagram shows that the temperature difference of a few degrees, or possibly even a fraction of a degree, might be sufficient for TC development for a range of static stabilities and development times.
2009, 26(3): 599-612. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0599-6
Abstract:
The coupled models of both the Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) and the Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model (GOALS-AVIM) are used to study the main characteristics of interannual variations. The simulated results are also used to investigate some significant interannual variability and correlation analysis of the atmospheric circulation and terrestrial ecosystem. By comparing the simulations of the climate model GOALS-AVIM and GOALS, it is known that the simulated results of the interannual variations of the spatial and temporal distributions of the surface air temperatures and precipitation are generally improved by using AVIM in GOALS-AVIM. The interannual variation displays some distinct characteristics of the geographical distribution. Both the Net Primary Production (NPP) and the Leap Area Index (LAI) have quasi 1-2-year cycles. Meanwhile, precipitation and the surface temperatures have 2--4-year cycles. Conditions when the spectrum density values of GOALS are less than those of GOALS-AVIM, tell us that the model coupled with AVIM enhances the simulative capability for interannual variability and makes the annual cycle variability more apparent. Using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis, the relationship between the ecosystem and the atmospheric circulation in East Asia is explored. The result shows that the strengthening and weakening of the East Asian monsoon, characterized by the geopotential heights at 500 hPa and the wind fields at 850 hPa, correspond to the spatiotemporal pattern of the NPP. The correlation between NPP and the air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation are different in interannual variability because of the variation in vegetation types.