2009 Vol. 26, No. 5
Display Method:
2009, 26(5): 813-839.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8162-z
Abstract:
In this paper we present the current capabilities for numerical weather prediction of precipitation over China using a suite of ten multimodels and our superensemble based forecasts. Our suite of models includes the operational suite selected by NCARs TIGGE archives for the THORPEX Program. These are: ECMWF, UKMO, JMA, NCEP, CMA, CMC, BOM, MF, KMA and the CPTEC models. The superensemble strategy includes a training and a forecasts phase, for these the periods chosen for this study include the months February through September for the years 2007 and 2008. This paper addresses precipitation forecasts for the medium range i.e. Days 1 to 3 and extending out to Day 10 of forecasts using this suite of global models. For training and forecasts validations we have made use of an advanced TRMM satellite based rainfall product. We make use of standard metrics for forecast validations that include the RMS errors, spatial correlations and the equitable threat scores. The results of skill forecasts of precipitation clearly demonstrate that it is possible to obtain higher skills for precipitation forecasts for Days 1 through 3 of forecasts from the use of the multimodel superensemble as compared to the best model of this suite. Between Days 4 to 10 it is possible to have very high skills from the multimodel superensemble for the RMS error of precipitation. Those skills are shown for a global belt and especially over China. Phenomenologically this product was also found very useful for precipitation forecasts for the Onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the life cycle of the mei-yu rains and post typhoon landfall heavy rains and flood events. The higher skills of the multimodel superensemble make it a very useful product for such real time events.
In this paper we present the current capabilities for numerical weather prediction of precipitation over China using a suite of ten multimodels and our superensemble based forecasts. Our suite of models includes the operational suite selected by NCARs TIGGE archives for the THORPEX Program. These are: ECMWF, UKMO, JMA, NCEP, CMA, CMC, BOM, MF, KMA and the CPTEC models. The superensemble strategy includes a training and a forecasts phase, for these the periods chosen for this study include the months February through September for the years 2007 and 2008. This paper addresses precipitation forecasts for the medium range i.e. Days 1 to 3 and extending out to Day 10 of forecasts using this suite of global models. For training and forecasts validations we have made use of an advanced TRMM satellite based rainfall product. We make use of standard metrics for forecast validations that include the RMS errors, spatial correlations and the equitable threat scores. The results of skill forecasts of precipitation clearly demonstrate that it is possible to obtain higher skills for precipitation forecasts for Days 1 through 3 of forecasts from the use of the multimodel superensemble as compared to the best model of this suite. Between Days 4 to 10 it is possible to have very high skills from the multimodel superensemble for the RMS error of precipitation. Those skills are shown for a global belt and especially over China. Phenomenologically this product was also found very useful for precipitation forecasts for the Onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the life cycle of the mei-yu rains and post typhoon landfall heavy rains and flood events. The higher skills of the multimodel superensemble make it a very useful product for such real time events.
2009, 26(5): 840-854.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8047-1
Abstract:
This study aims at exploring potential impacts of land-use vegetation change (LUC) on regional climate variability and extremes. Results from a pair of Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) climate model 54-yr (1949--2002) integrations have been analysed. In the model experiments, two vegetation datasets are used, with one representing current vegetation coverage in China and the other approximating its potential coverage without human intervention. The model results show potential impacts of LUC on climate variability and extremes. There are statistically significant changes of surface interannual climate variability simulated by the model. Using different vegetation datasets, significant changes in correlation coefficients between tropical Pacific Ni\~no3.4 SST and precipitation and surface temperature over East Asia are identified, which indicate that changes in vegetation coverage may alter ENSO impacts on regional climate variability. Because of the lack of slowly varying surface processes when forests are removed and less rainfall is received following LUC, the ENSO signal simulated by the model becomes stronger. Results furthermore show that land-use could modulate characteristics of decadal variations in this region. When using current vegetation coverage, the model gives better simulation of observed climate variations in the region than the case using potential vegetation coverage. In addition, results suggest that land-use could be a potential factor contributing to the prolonged drought in central-west China. Changes in local climate extremes, including precipitation and surface temperature maxima and minima, are also identified. Overall, this study has illustrated the importance of further investigation of such important issues in future land-use studies.
This study aims at exploring potential impacts of land-use vegetation change (LUC) on regional climate variability and extremes. Results from a pair of Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) climate model 54-yr (1949--2002) integrations have been analysed. In the model experiments, two vegetation datasets are used, with one representing current vegetation coverage in China and the other approximating its potential coverage without human intervention. The model results show potential impacts of LUC on climate variability and extremes. There are statistically significant changes of surface interannual climate variability simulated by the model. Using different vegetation datasets, significant changes in correlation coefficients between tropical Pacific Ni\~no3.4 SST and precipitation and surface temperature over East Asia are identified, which indicate that changes in vegetation coverage may alter ENSO impacts on regional climate variability. Because of the lack of slowly varying surface processes when forests are removed and less rainfall is received following LUC, the ENSO signal simulated by the model becomes stronger. Results furthermore show that land-use could modulate characteristics of decadal variations in this region. When using current vegetation coverage, the model gives better simulation of observed climate variations in the region than the case using potential vegetation coverage. In addition, results suggest that land-use could be a potential factor contributing to the prolonged drought in central-west China. Changes in local climate extremes, including precipitation and surface temperature maxima and minima, are also identified. Overall, this study has illustrated the importance of further investigation of such important issues in future land-use studies.
2009, 26(5): 855-863.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8168-6
Abstract:
We investigated the interannual variations of the winter stratospheric polar vortex in this paper. EOF analysis shows that two modes of variability dominate the stratospheric polar vortex on interannual timescales. The leading mode (EOF1) reflects the intensity variation of the polar vortex and is characterized by a geopotential height seesaw between the polar region and the mid-latitudes. The second one (EOF2) exhibits variation in the zonal asymmetric part of the polar vortex, which mainly describes the stationary planetary wave activity. As the strongest interannual variation signal in the atmosphere, the QBO has been shown to influence mainly the strength of the polar vortex. On the other hand, the ENSO cycle, as the strongest interannual variation signal in the ocean, has been shown to be mainly associated with the variation of stationary planetary wave activity in the stratosphere. Possible influences of the stratospheric polar vortex on the tropospheric circulation are also discussed in this paper.
We investigated the interannual variations of the winter stratospheric polar vortex in this paper. EOF analysis shows that two modes of variability dominate the stratospheric polar vortex on interannual timescales. The leading mode (EOF1) reflects the intensity variation of the polar vortex and is characterized by a geopotential height seesaw between the polar region and the mid-latitudes. The second one (EOF2) exhibits variation in the zonal asymmetric part of the polar vortex, which mainly describes the stationary planetary wave activity. As the strongest interannual variation signal in the atmosphere, the QBO has been shown to influence mainly the strength of the polar vortex. On the other hand, the ENSO cycle, as the strongest interannual variation signal in the ocean, has been shown to be mainly associated with the variation of stationary planetary wave activity in the stratosphere. Possible influences of the stratospheric polar vortex on the tropospheric circulation are also discussed in this paper.
2009, 26(5): 864-876.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8016-8
Abstract:
Vertical cumulus momentum transport is an important physical process in the tropical atmosphere and plays a key role in the evolution of the tropical atmospheric system. This paper focuses on the impact of the vertical cumulus momentum transport on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulation in two global climate models (GCMs). The Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme is applied to both GCMs [CAM2 and Spectral Atmospheric general circulation Model of LASG/IAP (SAMIL)]. It is found that the MJO simulation ability might be influenced by the vertical cumulus momentum transport through the cumulus parameterization scheme. However, the use of vertical momentum transport in different models provides different results. In order to improve model's MJO simulation ability, we must introduce vertical cumulus momentum transport in a more reasonable way into models. Furthermore, the coherence of the parameterization and the underlying model also need to be considered.
Vertical cumulus momentum transport is an important physical process in the tropical atmosphere and plays a key role in the evolution of the tropical atmospheric system. This paper focuses on the impact of the vertical cumulus momentum transport on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulation in two global climate models (GCMs). The Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme is applied to both GCMs [CAM2 and Spectral Atmospheric general circulation Model of LASG/IAP (SAMIL)]. It is found that the MJO simulation ability might be influenced by the vertical cumulus momentum transport through the cumulus parameterization scheme. However, the use of vertical momentum transport in different models provides different results. In order to improve model's MJO simulation ability, we must introduce vertical cumulus momentum transport in a more reasonable way into models. Furthermore, the coherence of the parameterization and the underlying model also need to be considered.
2009, 26(5): 877-886.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8098-3
Abstract:
One deficiency of the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM3) is the disappearance of the simulated snow even in the middle of winter over a boreal grassland site due to unrealistically modeled high downward turbulent fluxes. This is caused by the inappropriate treatment of the vertical snow burial fraction for short vegetation. A new snow burial fraction formulation for short vegetation is then proposed and validated using in situ observations. This modification in the CLM3 largely removes the unrealistic surface turbulent fluxes, leading to a more reasonable snowmelt process, and improves the snow water equivalent (SWE) simulation. Moreover, global offline simulations show that the proposed formulation decreases sensible and latent heat fluxes as well as the ground temperature during the snowmelt season over short vegetation dominant regions. Correspondingly, the SWE is enhanced, leading to the increase in snowmelt-induced runoff during the same period. Furthermore, sensitivity tests indicate that these improvements are insensitive to the exact functional form or parameter values in the proposed formulation.
One deficiency of the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM3) is the disappearance of the simulated snow even in the middle of winter over a boreal grassland site due to unrealistically modeled high downward turbulent fluxes. This is caused by the inappropriate treatment of the vertical snow burial fraction for short vegetation. A new snow burial fraction formulation for short vegetation is then proposed and validated using in situ observations. This modification in the CLM3 largely removes the unrealistic surface turbulent fluxes, leading to a more reasonable snowmelt process, and improves the snow water equivalent (SWE) simulation. Moreover, global offline simulations show that the proposed formulation decreases sensible and latent heat fluxes as well as the ground temperature during the snowmelt season over short vegetation dominant regions. Correspondingly, the SWE is enhanced, leading to the increase in snowmelt-induced runoff during the same period. Furthermore, sensitivity tests indicate that these improvements are insensitive to the exact functional form or parameter values in the proposed formulation.
2009, 26(5): 887-894.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8130-7
Abstract:
The parameterization of friction velocity, roughness length, and the drag coefficient over coastal zones and open water surfaces enables us to better understand the physical processes of air-water interaction. In context of measurements from the Humidity Exchange over the Sea Main Experiment (HEXMAX), we recently proposed wave-parameter dependent approaches to sea surface friction velocity and the aerodynamic roughness by using the dimensional analysis method. To extend the application of these approaches to a range of natural surface conditions, the present study is to assess this approach by using both coastal shallow (RASEX) and open water surface measurements (Lake Ontario and Grand Banks ERS-1 SAR) where wind speeds were greater than 6.44 m s-1. Friction velocities, the surface aerodynamic roughness, and the neutral drag coefficient estimated by these approaches under moderate wind conditions were compared with the measurements mentioned above. Results showed that the coefficients in these approaches for coastal shallow water surface differ from those for open water surfaces, and that the aerodynamic roughness length in terms of wave age or significant wave height should be treated differently for coastal shallow and open water surfaces.
The parameterization of friction velocity, roughness length, and the drag coefficient over coastal zones and open water surfaces enables us to better understand the physical processes of air-water interaction. In context of measurements from the Humidity Exchange over the Sea Main Experiment (HEXMAX), we recently proposed wave-parameter dependent approaches to sea surface friction velocity and the aerodynamic roughness by using the dimensional analysis method. To extend the application of these approaches to a range of natural surface conditions, the present study is to assess this approach by using both coastal shallow (RASEX) and open water surface measurements (Lake Ontario and Grand Banks ERS-1 SAR) where wind speeds were greater than 6.44 m s-1. Friction velocities, the surface aerodynamic roughness, and the neutral drag coefficient estimated by these approaches under moderate wind conditions were compared with the measurements mentioned above. Results showed that the coefficients in these approaches for coastal shallow water surface differ from those for open water surfaces, and that the aerodynamic roughness length in terms of wave age or significant wave height should be treated differently for coastal shallow and open water surfaces.
2009, 26(5): 895-905.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8123-6
Abstract:
The surface rainfall processes and diurnal variations associated with tropical oceanic convection are examined by analyzing a surface rainfall equation and thermal budget based on hourly zonal-mean data from a series of two-dimensional cloud-resolving simulations. The model is integrated for 21 days with imposed large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind, and horizontal advection obtained from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) in the control experiment. Diurnal analysis shows that the infrared radiative cooling after sunset, as well as the advective cooling associated with imposed large-scale ascending motion, destabilize the atmosphere and release convective available potential energy to energize nocturnal convective development. Substantial local atmospheric drying is associated with the nocturnal rainfall peak in early morning, which is a result of the large condensation and deposition rates in the vapor budget. Sensitivity experiments show that diurnal variations of radiation and large-scale forcing can produce a nocturnal rainfall peak through infrared and advective cooling, respectively.
The surface rainfall processes and diurnal variations associated with tropical oceanic convection are examined by analyzing a surface rainfall equation and thermal budget based on hourly zonal-mean data from a series of two-dimensional cloud-resolving simulations. The model is integrated for 21 days with imposed large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind, and horizontal advection obtained from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) in the control experiment. Diurnal analysis shows that the infrared radiative cooling after sunset, as well as the advective cooling associated with imposed large-scale ascending motion, destabilize the atmosphere and release convective available potential energy to energize nocturnal convective development. Substantial local atmospheric drying is associated with the nocturnal rainfall peak in early morning, which is a result of the large condensation and deposition rates in the vapor budget. Sensitivity experiments show that diurnal variations of radiation and large-scale forcing can produce a nocturnal rainfall peak through infrared and advective cooling, respectively.
2009, 26(5): 906-922.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8004-z
Abstract:
Topography-induced potential vorticity (PV) banners over a mesoscale topography (Dabie Mountain, hereafter DM) in eastern China, under an idealized dry adiabatic flow, are studied with a mesoscale numerical model, ARPS. PV banners generate over the leeside of the DM with a maximal intensity of ~1.5 PVU, and extend more than 100 km downstream, while the width varies from several to tens of kilometers, which contrasts with the half-width of the peaks along the ridge of the DM. Wave breaking occurs near the leeside surface of the DM, and leads to a strong PV generation. Combining with the PV generation, due to the friction and the flow splitting upstream, the PV is advected downstream, and then forms the PV banners over the DM. The PV banners are sensitive to the model resolution, Coriolis force, friction, subgrid turbulent mixing, stratification, the upstream wind speed and wind direction. The negative PV banners have a more compact connection with the low level turbulent kinetic energy. The PV banners are built up by the baroclinic and barotropic components. The barotropic-associated PV can identify the distribution of the PV banners, while the baroclinic one only has important contributions on the flanks and on the leeside near the topography. PV fluxes are diagnosed to investigate the influence of friction on the PV banners. Similar patterns are found between the total PV flux and the advective PV flux, except near the surface and inside the dipole of the PV banners, where the nonadvective PV flux associated with the friction has a net negative contribution.
Topography-induced potential vorticity (PV) banners over a mesoscale topography (Dabie Mountain, hereafter DM) in eastern China, under an idealized dry adiabatic flow, are studied with a mesoscale numerical model, ARPS. PV banners generate over the leeside of the DM with a maximal intensity of ~1.5 PVU, and extend more than 100 km downstream, while the width varies from several to tens of kilometers, which contrasts with the half-width of the peaks along the ridge of the DM. Wave breaking occurs near the leeside surface of the DM, and leads to a strong PV generation. Combining with the PV generation, due to the friction and the flow splitting upstream, the PV is advected downstream, and then forms the PV banners over the DM. The PV banners are sensitive to the model resolution, Coriolis force, friction, subgrid turbulent mixing, stratification, the upstream wind speed and wind direction. The negative PV banners have a more compact connection with the low level turbulent kinetic energy. The PV banners are built up by the baroclinic and barotropic components. The barotropic-associated PV can identify the distribution of the PV banners, while the baroclinic one only has important contributions on the flanks and on the leeside near the topography. PV fluxes are diagnosed to investigate the influence of friction on the PV banners. Similar patterns are found between the total PV flux and the advective PV flux, except near the surface and inside the dipole of the PV banners, where the nonadvective PV flux associated with the friction has a net negative contribution.
2009, 26(5): 923-939.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8111-x
Abstract:
This study examines cloud radiative forcing (CRF) in the Asian monsoon region (0o--50oN，60o--150oE) simulated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) AMIP models. During boreal winter, no model realistically reproduces the larger long-wave cloud radiative forcing (LWCF) over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and only a couple of models reasonably capture the larger short-wave CRF (SWCF) to the east of the TP. During boreal summer, there are larger biases for central location and intensity of simulated CRF in active convective regions. The CRF biases are closely related to the rainfall biases in the models. Quantitative analysis further indicates that the correlation between simulated CRF and observations are not high, and that the biases and diversity in SWCF are larger than that in LWCF. The annual cycle of simulated CRF over East Asia (0o--50oN, 100o--145oE) is also examined. Though many models capture the basic annual cycle in tropics, strong LWCF and SWCF to the east of the TP beginning in early spring are underestimated by most models. As a whole, GFDL-CM2.1, MPI-ECHAM5, UKMO-HadGAM1, and MIROC3.2 (medres) perform well for CRF simulation in the Asian monsoon region, and the multi-model ensemble (MME) has improved results over the individual simulations. It is suggested that strengthening the physical parameterizations involved over the TP, and improving cumulus convection processes and model experiment design are crucial to CRF simulation in the Asian monsoon region.
This study examines cloud radiative forcing (CRF) in the Asian monsoon region (0o--50oN，60o--150oE) simulated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) AMIP models. During boreal winter, no model realistically reproduces the larger long-wave cloud radiative forcing (LWCF) over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and only a couple of models reasonably capture the larger short-wave CRF (SWCF) to the east of the TP. During boreal summer, there are larger biases for central location and intensity of simulated CRF in active convective regions. The CRF biases are closely related to the rainfall biases in the models. Quantitative analysis further indicates that the correlation between simulated CRF and observations are not high, and that the biases and diversity in SWCF are larger than that in LWCF. The annual cycle of simulated CRF over East Asia (0o--50oN, 100o--145oE) is also examined. Though many models capture the basic annual cycle in tropics, strong LWCF and SWCF to the east of the TP beginning in early spring are underestimated by most models. As a whole, GFDL-CM2.1, MPI-ECHAM5, UKMO-HadGAM1, and MIROC3.2 (medres) perform well for CRF simulation in the Asian monsoon region, and the multi-model ensemble (MME) has improved results over the individual simulations. It is suggested that strengthening the physical parameterizations involved over the TP, and improving cumulus convection processes and model experiment design are crucial to CRF simulation in the Asian monsoon region.
2009, 26(5): 951-961.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8070-2
Abstract:
The dry-wet variability in western China and its spatiotemporal structure during the last 4--5 centuries was examined using 24 climate proxies from sediments, ice cores, historical documents, and tree rings. Spatial patterns and temporal evolutions of dryness and wetness were not only extracted from the proxy data using rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis for the last 4 centuries, but also for instrumental data in the last 40 years. The leading five REOF modes indicate that 5 dry-wet variation centers exist in western China. Moreover, long-term variability in dryness and wetness is seen on long (centennial) to short (inter-decadal) timescales. An out-of-phase relationship for the inter-decadal variation was observed between the Hetao-upper Yangtze River region and north Xinjiang, indicating influences on dry-wet variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds over the two regions, respectively. A particularly long dry spell was found in the central Tibetan Plateau in the 19th century. A predominance of wet decades in the last 4 centuries was found in the arid and Hetao regions. Three regional dry-wet series with annual resolution in north Xinjiang, the upper Yellow River valley, and the Hetao area were constructed for analyses of the last 500 years. Dry-wet oscillations with periodicities of 16, 50, and 150 years in north Xinjiang, 50 years in the upper Yellow River valley, and 70--80 years in the Hetao region were identified by wavelet analysis. In general, these periods correspond to large-scale oscillations found in the climate system, are mainly related to ocean-atmosphere interaction.
The dry-wet variability in western China and its spatiotemporal structure during the last 4--5 centuries was examined using 24 climate proxies from sediments, ice cores, historical documents, and tree rings. Spatial patterns and temporal evolutions of dryness and wetness were not only extracted from the proxy data using rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis for the last 4 centuries, but also for instrumental data in the last 40 years. The leading five REOF modes indicate that 5 dry-wet variation centers exist in western China. Moreover, long-term variability in dryness and wetness is seen on long (centennial) to short (inter-decadal) timescales. An out-of-phase relationship for the inter-decadal variation was observed between the Hetao-upper Yangtze River region and north Xinjiang, indicating influences on dry-wet variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds over the two regions, respectively. A particularly long dry spell was found in the central Tibetan Plateau in the 19th century. A predominance of wet decades in the last 4 centuries was found in the arid and Hetao regions. Three regional dry-wet series with annual resolution in north Xinjiang, the upper Yellow River valley, and the Hetao area were constructed for analyses of the last 500 years. Dry-wet oscillations with periodicities of 16, 50, and 150 years in north Xinjiang, 50 years in the upper Yellow River valley, and 70--80 years in the Hetao region were identified by wavelet analysis. In general, these periods correspond to large-scale oscillations found in the climate system, are mainly related to ocean-atmosphere interaction.
2009, 26(5): 962-972.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8001-2
Abstract:
In this paper, the online weather research and forecasting and chemistry (WRF-Chem) model is used to explore the impacts of urban expansion on regional weather conditions and its implication on surface ozone concentrations over the Pearl River Delta(PRD) and Yangtze River Delta(YRD) regions. Two scenarios of urban maps are used in the WRF-Chem to represent the early 1990s (pre-urbanization) and the current urban distribution in the PRD and the YRD. Month-long simulation results using the above land-use scenarios for March 2001 show that urbanization increases both the day- and night-time 2-m temperatures by about 0.6oC and 1.4oC, respectively. Daytime reduction in the wind speed by about 3.0 m s-1 is larger than that for the nighttime (0.5 to 2 m s-1). The daytime increase in the PBL height (> 200 m) is also larger than the nighttime (50--100 m). The meteorological conditions modified by urbanization lead to detectable ozone-concentration changes in the PRD and the YRD. Urbanization increases the nighttime surface-ozone concentrations by about 4.7%--8.5% and by about 2.9%--4.2% for the daytime. In addition to modifying individual meteorological variables, urbanization also enhances the convergence zones, especially in the PRD. More importantly, urbanization has different effects on the surface ozone for the PRD and the YRD, presumably due to their urbanization characteristics and geographical locations. Even though the PRD has a smaller increase in the surface temperature than the YRD, it has (a) weaker surface wind speed, (b) smaller increase in PBL heights, and (c) stronger convergence zones. The latter three factors outweighed the temperature increase and resulted in a larger ozone enhancement in the PRD than the YRD.
In this paper, the online weather research and forecasting and chemistry (WRF-Chem) model is used to explore the impacts of urban expansion on regional weather conditions and its implication on surface ozone concentrations over the Pearl River Delta(PRD) and Yangtze River Delta(YRD) regions. Two scenarios of urban maps are used in the WRF-Chem to represent the early 1990s (pre-urbanization) and the current urban distribution in the PRD and the YRD. Month-long simulation results using the above land-use scenarios for March 2001 show that urbanization increases both the day- and night-time 2-m temperatures by about 0.6oC and 1.4oC, respectively. Daytime reduction in the wind speed by about 3.0 m s-1 is larger than that for the nighttime (0.5 to 2 m s-1). The daytime increase in the PBL height (> 200 m) is also larger than the nighttime (50--100 m). The meteorological conditions modified by urbanization lead to detectable ozone-concentration changes in the PRD and the YRD. Urbanization increases the nighttime surface-ozone concentrations by about 4.7%--8.5% and by about 2.9%--4.2% for the daytime. In addition to modifying individual meteorological variables, urbanization also enhances the convergence zones, especially in the PRD. More importantly, urbanization has different effects on the surface ozone for the PRD and the YRD, presumably due to their urbanization characteristics and geographical locations. Even though the PRD has a smaller increase in the surface temperature than the YRD, it has (a) weaker surface wind speed, (b) smaller increase in PBL heights, and (c) stronger convergence zones. The latter three factors outweighed the temperature increase and resulted in a larger ozone enhancement in the PRD than the YRD.
2009, 26(5): 973-983.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-7218-4
Abstract:
In this paper, a novel algorithm for aerosol optical depth(AOD) retrieval with a 1 km spatial resolution over land is presented using the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) dual-view capability at 0.55, 0.66 and 0.87 um, in combination with the Bi-directional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model, a product of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The BRDF characteristics of the land surface, i.e. prior input parameters for this algorithm, are computed by extracting the geometrical information from AATSR and reducing the kernels from the MODIS BRDF/Albedo Model Parameters Product. Finally, AOD, with a 1 km resolution at 0.55, 0.66 and 0.87 um for the forward and nadir views of AATSR, can be simultaneously obtained. Extensive validations of AOD derived from AATSR during the period from August 2005 to July 2006 in Beijing and its surrounding area, against in-situ AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) measurements, were performed. The AOD difference between the retrievals from the forward and nadir views of AATSR was less than 5.72%, 1.9% and 13.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, it was found that the AATSR retrievals using the synergic algorithm developed in this paper are more favorable than those by assuming a Lambert surface, for the coefficient of determination between AATSR derived AOD and AERONET mearured AOD, decreased by 15.5% and 18.5%, compared to those derived by the synergic algorithm. This further suggests that the synergic algorithm can be potentially used in climate change and air quality monitoring.
In this paper, a novel algorithm for aerosol optical depth(AOD) retrieval with a 1 km spatial resolution over land is presented using the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) dual-view capability at 0.55, 0.66 and 0.87 um, in combination with the Bi-directional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model, a product of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The BRDF characteristics of the land surface, i.e. prior input parameters for this algorithm, are computed by extracting the geometrical information from AATSR and reducing the kernels from the MODIS BRDF/Albedo Model Parameters Product. Finally, AOD, with a 1 km resolution at 0.55, 0.66 and 0.87 um for the forward and nadir views of AATSR, can be simultaneously obtained. Extensive validations of AOD derived from AATSR during the period from August 2005 to July 2006 in Beijing and its surrounding area, against in-situ AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) measurements, were performed. The AOD difference between the retrievals from the forward and nadir views of AATSR was less than 5.72%, 1.9% and 13.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, it was found that the AATSR retrievals using the synergic algorithm developed in this paper are more favorable than those by assuming a Lambert surface, for the coefficient of determination between AATSR derived AOD and AERONET mearured AOD, decreased by 15.5% and 18.5%, compared to those derived by the synergic algorithm. This further suggests that the synergic algorithm can be potentially used in climate change and air quality monitoring.
2009, 26(5): 984-994.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8109-4
Abstract:
A three-component decomposition is applied to global analysis data to show the existence of a beta gyre, which causes Tropical Cyclone (TC) to drift from a large-scale environmental steering current. Analyses from the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the Global Forecast System (GFS) of NCEP, and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) are used in this study. The structure of the beta gyre obtained in our analyses is in good agreement with the theoretical structure, with a cyclonic circulation to the southwest of the TC center, an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast, and a ventilation flow directed northwestward near the center. The circulation of the beta gyre is strongest at the 850-hPa level where the cyclonically swirling primary circulation is strongest, and decreases with height, in a pyramid shape similar to the primary circulation. The individual structure of the beta gyre is case- and model-dependent. At a certain analysis time, one model may clearly reveal a well-defined beta gyre, but the other models may not. Within one model, the beta gyre may be well defined at some analysis times, but not at other times. The structure of the beta gyre in the analysis field is determined by the nature of the vortex initialization scheme and the model behavior during the 6-h forecast in the operational data assimilation cycle.
A three-component decomposition is applied to global analysis data to show the existence of a beta gyre, which causes Tropical Cyclone (TC) to drift from a large-scale environmental steering current. Analyses from the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the Global Forecast System (GFS) of NCEP, and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) are used in this study. The structure of the beta gyre obtained in our analyses is in good agreement with the theoretical structure, with a cyclonic circulation to the southwest of the TC center, an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast, and a ventilation flow directed northwestward near the center. The circulation of the beta gyre is strongest at the 850-hPa level where the cyclonically swirling primary circulation is strongest, and decreases with height, in a pyramid shape similar to the primary circulation. The individual structure of the beta gyre is case- and model-dependent. At a certain analysis time, one model may clearly reveal a well-defined beta gyre, but the other models may not. Within one model, the beta gyre may be well defined at some analysis times, but not at other times. The structure of the beta gyre in the analysis field is determined by the nature of the vortex initialization scheme and the model behavior during the 6-h forecast in the operational data assimilation cycle.
2009, 26(5): 995-1004.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8145-0
Abstract:
The effect of a vertical diffusion scheme over a stratocumulus topped boundary layer (STBL) was investigated using the YONU AGCM (Yonsei University Atmospheric General Circulation Model). To consider the impact of clouds on the turbulence production, the turbulence mixing term, driven by radiative cooling at the cloud top, is implemented as an extended non-local diffusion scheme. In the model with this new scheme, the STBL parameterization significantly influences the lower atmosphere over the tropical and subtropical regions. Consideration of the turbulent mixing within the cloud layer leads to continuous stratocumulus formation. The cloud-top radiative cooling tends to favor more rapid entrainment and produces top-down turbulent mixing. This cooling develops a mixed layer without initiation of deep convection by surface fluxes. Variations in thermodynamical and dynamical features are produced by planetary boundary layer (PBL) cloud development. The simulated stratocumulus induces more mixing of heat and moisture due to the cloud forcing. Over STBL regions, the lower boundary layer becomes warmer and drier. It also weakens vertical motion and zonal trade winds in the eastern Pacific, which indicates that stratocumulus cloud cover plays a role in weakening the Walker circulation; that is, cloud cover damps the tropical circulation.
The effect of a vertical diffusion scheme over a stratocumulus topped boundary layer (STBL) was investigated using the YONU AGCM (Yonsei University Atmospheric General Circulation Model). To consider the impact of clouds on the turbulence production, the turbulence mixing term, driven by radiative cooling at the cloud top, is implemented as an extended non-local diffusion scheme. In the model with this new scheme, the STBL parameterization significantly influences the lower atmosphere over the tropical and subtropical regions. Consideration of the turbulent mixing within the cloud layer leads to continuous stratocumulus formation. The cloud-top radiative cooling tends to favor more rapid entrainment and produces top-down turbulent mixing. This cooling develops a mixed layer without initiation of deep convection by surface fluxes. Variations in thermodynamical and dynamical features are produced by planetary boundary layer (PBL) cloud development. The simulated stratocumulus induces more mixing of heat and moisture due to the cloud forcing. Over STBL regions, the lower boundary layer becomes warmer and drier. It also weakens vertical motion and zonal trade winds in the eastern Pacific, which indicates that stratocumulus cloud cover plays a role in weakening the Walker circulation; that is, cloud cover damps the tropical circulation.
2009, 26(5): 1005-1014.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-7222-8
Abstract:
In this paper, the equilibrium entrainment into a shear-free, linearly stratified atmosphere is discussed under the framework of bulk models, namely, the zero-order jump model (ZOM) and the first-order jump model (FOM). The parameterizations for the dimensionless entrainment rate versus the convective Richardson number in the two models are compared. Based on the assumption that the parameterized entrainment rates in ZOM and FOM should be the same, the inherent relationships among the entrainment parameters in the bulk models are revealed. These relationships are supported by tank experiments and large-eddy simulations. The validity of these inherent relationships indicates that, for a convective boundary layer growing into a linearly stratified free atmosphere, the only dominant factors of the growth rate are the turbulent buoyancy in the mixed layer and the stratification in the free atmosphere. In the point of the similarity view, the former is characterized by turbulent temperature and mixing length scales (mixed layer depth), and the latter is characterized by the lapse rate of potential temperature in the free atmosphere. Thus, the commonly-used Richardson number scheme for the parameterization of the entrainment rate is just as an equivalent description. The variability of the total entrainment flux ratio in FOM, which is connected with the entrainment zone thickness, can implicitly describe the effect of the stratification in the free atmosphere, but the entrainment zone thickness is not an independent parameter. These results demonstrate the validity of the hypothesis that there exists a similarity limit in which the mixed layer depth is the only lengthscale.
In this paper, the equilibrium entrainment into a shear-free, linearly stratified atmosphere is discussed under the framework of bulk models, namely, the zero-order jump model (ZOM) and the first-order jump model (FOM). The parameterizations for the dimensionless entrainment rate versus the convective Richardson number in the two models are compared. Based on the assumption that the parameterized entrainment rates in ZOM and FOM should be the same, the inherent relationships among the entrainment parameters in the bulk models are revealed. These relationships are supported by tank experiments and large-eddy simulations. The validity of these inherent relationships indicates that, for a convective boundary layer growing into a linearly stratified free atmosphere, the only dominant factors of the growth rate are the turbulent buoyancy in the mixed layer and the stratification in the free atmosphere. In the point of the similarity view, the former is characterized by turbulent temperature and mixing length scales (mixed layer depth), and the latter is characterized by the lapse rate of potential temperature in the free atmosphere. Thus, the commonly-used Richardson number scheme for the parameterization of the entrainment rate is just as an equivalent description. The variability of the total entrainment flux ratio in FOM, which is connected with the entrainment zone thickness, can implicitly describe the effect of the stratification in the free atmosphere, but the entrainment zone thickness is not an independent parameter. These results demonstrate the validity of the hypothesis that there exists a similarity limit in which the mixed layer depth is the only lengthscale.
2009, 26(5): 1015-1026.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8078-7
Abstract:
Satellite observations of SSTs have revealed the existence of unstable waves in the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. These waves have a 20--40-day periodicity with westward phase speeds of 0.4--0.6 m s-1 and wavelengths of 1000--2000 km during boreal summer and fall. They are generally called tropical instability waves (TIWs). This study investigates TIWs simulated by a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The horizontal resolution of the model is 120 km in the atmosphere, and 30~km longitude by 20 km latitude in the ocean. Model simulations show good agreement with the observed main features associated with TIWs. The results of energetics analysis reveal that barotropic energy conversion is responsible for providing the main energy source for TIWs by extracting energy from the meridional shear of the climatological-mean equatorial currents in the mixed layer. This deeper and northward-extended wave activity appears to gain its energy through baroclinic conversion via buoyancy work, which further contributes to the asymmetric distribution of TIWs. It is estimated that the strong cooling effect induced by equatorial upwelling is partially (~30%--40%) offset by the equatorward heat flux due to TIWs in the eastern tropical Pacific during the seasons when TIWs are active. The atmospheric mixed layer just above the sea surface responds to the waves with enhanced or reduced vertical mixing. Furthermore, the changes in turbulent mixing feed back to sea surface evaporation, favoring the westward propagation of TIWs. The atmosphere to the south of the Equator also responds to TIWs in a similar way, although TIWs are much weaker south of the Equator.
Satellite observations of SSTs have revealed the existence of unstable waves in the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. These waves have a 20--40-day periodicity with westward phase speeds of 0.4--0.6 m s-1 and wavelengths of 1000--2000 km during boreal summer and fall. They are generally called tropical instability waves (TIWs). This study investigates TIWs simulated by a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The horizontal resolution of the model is 120 km in the atmosphere, and 30~km longitude by 20 km latitude in the ocean. Model simulations show good agreement with the observed main features associated with TIWs. The results of energetics analysis reveal that barotropic energy conversion is responsible for providing the main energy source for TIWs by extracting energy from the meridional shear of the climatological-mean equatorial currents in the mixed layer. This deeper and northward-extended wave activity appears to gain its energy through baroclinic conversion via buoyancy work, which further contributes to the asymmetric distribution of TIWs. It is estimated that the strong cooling effect induced by equatorial upwelling is partially (~30%--40%) offset by the equatorward heat flux due to TIWs in the eastern tropical Pacific during the seasons when TIWs are active. The atmospheric mixed layer just above the sea surface responds to the waves with enhanced or reduced vertical mixing. Furthermore, the changes in turbulent mixing feed back to sea surface evaporation, favoring the westward propagation of TIWs. The atmosphere to the south of the Equator also responds to TIWs in a similar way, although TIWs are much weaker south of the Equator.
2009, 26(5): 1027-1041.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-7207-7
Abstract:
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 47-year precipitation dataset are utilized to analyze the relationship between an atmospheric heat source (hereafter called 1 >) over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) and its surrounding area and precipitation in northwest China. Our main conclusions are as follows: (1) The horizontal distribution of 1 > and its changing trend are dramatic over QXP in the summer. There are three strong centers of 1 > over the south side of QXP with obvious differences in the amount of yearly precipitation and the number of heat sinks predominate in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China (NWC), beside the northern QXP with an obvious higher intensity in years with less precipitation. (2) In the summer, the variation of the heat source's vertical structure is obviously different between greater and lesser precipitation years in eastern northwest China (ENWC). The narrow heat sink belt forms between the northeast QXP and the southwestern part of Lake Baikal. In July and August of greater precipitation years, the heating center of the eastern QXP stays nearly over 35oN, and at 400 hPa of the eastern QXP, the strong upward motion of the heating center constructs a closed secondary vertical circulation cell over the northeast QXP (40o--46oN), which is propitious to add precipitation over the ENWC. Otherwise, the heating center shifts to the south of 30oN and disappears in July and August of lesser precipitation years, an opposite secondary circulation cell forms over the northeast QXP, which is a disadvantage for precipitation. Meanwhile, the secondary circulation cell in years with more or less precipitation over the ENWC is also related to the heat source over the Lake Baikal. (3) The vertical structure of the heat source over the western QXP has obvious differences between greater and lesser precipitation years in western northwest China in June and July. The strong/weak heat source over the western QXP produces relatively strong/weak ascending motion and correspondingly constructs a secondary circulation cell in lesser/greater precipitation years.
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 47-year precipitation dataset are utilized to analyze the relationship between an atmospheric heat source (hereafter called 1 >) over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) and its surrounding area and precipitation in northwest China. Our main conclusions are as follows: (1) The horizontal distribution of 1 > and its changing trend are dramatic over QXP in the summer. There are three strong centers of 1 > over the south side of QXP with obvious differences in the amount of yearly precipitation and the number of heat sinks predominate in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China (NWC), beside the northern QXP with an obvious higher intensity in years with less precipitation. (2) In the summer, the variation of the heat source's vertical structure is obviously different between greater and lesser precipitation years in eastern northwest China (ENWC). The narrow heat sink belt forms between the northeast QXP and the southwestern part of Lake Baikal. In July and August of greater precipitation years, the heating center of the eastern QXP stays nearly over 35oN, and at 400 hPa of the eastern QXP, the strong upward motion of the heating center constructs a closed secondary vertical circulation cell over the northeast QXP (40o--46oN), which is propitious to add precipitation over the ENWC. Otherwise, the heating center shifts to the south of 30oN and disappears in July and August of lesser precipitation years, an opposite secondary circulation cell forms over the northeast QXP, which is a disadvantage for precipitation. Meanwhile, the secondary circulation cell in years with more or less precipitation over the ENWC is also related to the heat source over the Lake Baikal. (3) The vertical structure of the heat source over the western QXP has obvious differences between greater and lesser precipitation years in western northwest China in June and July. The strong/weak heat source over the western QXP produces relatively strong/weak ascending motion and correspondingly constructs a secondary circulation cell in lesser/greater precipitation years.
2009, 26(5): 1042-1052.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-7208-6
Abstract:
The computational cost required by the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is much larger than that of some simpler assimilation schemes, such as Optimal Interpolation (OI) or three-dimension variational assimilation (3DVAR). Ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI), a crudely simplified implementation of EnKF, is sometimes used as a substitute in some oceanic applications and requires much less computational time than EnKF. In this paper, to compromise between computational cost and dynamic covariance, we use the idea of ``dressing' a small size dynamical ensemble with a larger number of static ensembles in order to form an approximate dynamic covariance. The term ``dressing' means that a dynamical ensemble seed from model runs is perturbed by adding the anomalies of some static ensembles. This dressing EnKF (DrEnKF for short) scheme is tested in assimilation of real altimetry data in the Pacific using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) over a four-year period. Ten dynamical ensemble seeds are each dressed by 10 static ensemble members selected from a 100-member static ensemble. Results are compared to two EnKF assimilation runs that use 10 and 100 dynamical ensemble members. Both temperature and salinity fields from the DrEnKF and the EnKF are compared to observations from Argo floats and an OI SST dataset. The results show that the DrEnKF and the 100-member EnKF yield similar root mean square errors (RMSE) at every model level. Error covariance matrices from the DrEnKF and the 100-member EnKF are also compared and show good agreement.
The computational cost required by the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is much larger than that of some simpler assimilation schemes, such as Optimal Interpolation (OI) or three-dimension variational assimilation (3DVAR). Ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI), a crudely simplified implementation of EnKF, is sometimes used as a substitute in some oceanic applications and requires much less computational time than EnKF. In this paper, to compromise between computational cost and dynamic covariance, we use the idea of ``dressing' a small size dynamical ensemble with a larger number of static ensembles in order to form an approximate dynamic covariance. The term ``dressing' means that a dynamical ensemble seed from model runs is perturbed by adding the anomalies of some static ensembles. This dressing EnKF (DrEnKF for short) scheme is tested in assimilation of real altimetry data in the Pacific using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) over a four-year period. Ten dynamical ensemble seeds are each dressed by 10 static ensemble members selected from a 100-member static ensemble. Results are compared to two EnKF assimilation runs that use 10 and 100 dynamical ensemble members. Both temperature and salinity fields from the DrEnKF and the EnKF are compared to observations from Argo floats and an OI SST dataset. The results show that the DrEnKF and the 100-member EnKF yield similar root mean square errors (RMSE) at every model level. Error covariance matrices from the DrEnKF and the 100-member EnKF are also compared and show good agreement.
2009, 26(5): 940-950.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-7174-z
Abstract:
In almost all frozen soil models used currently, three variables of temperature, ice content and moisture content are used as prognostic variables and the rate term, accounting for the contribution of the phase change between water and ice, is shown explicitly in both the energy and mass balance equations. The models must be solved by a numerical method with an iterative process, and the rate term of the phase change needs to be pre-estimated at the beginning in each iteration step. Since the rate term of the phase change in the energy equation is closely related to the release or absorption of the great amount of fusion heat, a small error in the rate term estimation will introduce greater error in the energy balance, which will amplify the error in the temperature calculation and in turn, cause problems for the numerical solution convergence. In this work, in order to first reduce the trouble, the methodology of the variable transformation is applied to a simplified frozen soil model used currently, which leads to new frozen soil scheme used in this work. In the new scheme, the enthalpy and the total water equivalent are used as predictive variables in the governing equations to replace temperature, volumetric soil moisture and ice content used in many current models. By doing so, the rate terms of the phase change are not shown explicitly in both the mass and energy equations and its pre-estimation is avoided. Secondly, in order to solve this new scheme more functionally, the development of the numerical scheme to the new scheme is described and a numerical algorithm appropriate to the numerical scheme is developed. In order to evaluate the new scheme of the frozen soil model and its relevant algorithm, a series of model evaluations are conducted by comparing numerical results from the new model scheme with three observational data sets. The comparisons show that the results from the model are in good agreement with these data sets in both the change trend of variables and their magnitude values, and the new scheme, together with the algorithm, is more efficient and saves more computer time.
In almost all frozen soil models used currently, three variables of temperature, ice content and moisture content are used as prognostic variables and the rate term, accounting for the contribution of the phase change between water and ice, is shown explicitly in both the energy and mass balance equations. The models must be solved by a numerical method with an iterative process, and the rate term of the phase change needs to be pre-estimated at the beginning in each iteration step. Since the rate term of the phase change in the energy equation is closely related to the release or absorption of the great amount of fusion heat, a small error in the rate term estimation will introduce greater error in the energy balance, which will amplify the error in the temperature calculation and in turn, cause problems for the numerical solution convergence. In this work, in order to first reduce the trouble, the methodology of the variable transformation is applied to a simplified frozen soil model used currently, which leads to new frozen soil scheme used in this work. In the new scheme, the enthalpy and the total water equivalent are used as predictive variables in the governing equations to replace temperature, volumetric soil moisture and ice content used in many current models. By doing so, the rate terms of the phase change are not shown explicitly in both the mass and energy equations and its pre-estimation is avoided. Secondly, in order to solve this new scheme more functionally, the development of the numerical scheme to the new scheme is described and a numerical algorithm appropriate to the numerical scheme is developed. In order to evaluate the new scheme of the frozen soil model and its relevant algorithm, a series of model evaluations are conducted by comparing numerical results from the new model scheme with three observational data sets. The comparisons show that the results from the model are in good agreement with these data sets in both the change trend of variables and their magnitude values, and the new scheme, together with the algorithm, is more efficient and saves more computer time.
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