2010 Vol. 27, No. 5
Display Method:
2010, 27(5): 967-976.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-8171-y
Abstract:
The ability to forecast heavy rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) can be improved with a better understanding of the mechanism of rainfall rates and distributions of LTCs. Research in the area of LTCs has shown that associated heavy rainfall is related closely to mechanisms such as moisture transport, extratropical transition (ET), interaction with monsoon surge, land surface processes or topographic effects, mesoscale convective system activities within the LTC, and boundary layer energy transfer etc.. LTCs interacting with environmental weather systems, especially the westerly trough and mei-yu front, could change the rainfall rate and distribution associated with these mid-latitude weather systems. Recently improved technologies have contributed to advancements within the areas of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). More specifically, progress has been due primarily to remote sensing observations and mesoscale numerical models which incorporate advanced assimilation techniques. Such progress may provide the tools necessary to improve rainfall forecasting techniques associated with LTCs in the future.
The ability to forecast heavy rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) can be improved with a better understanding of the mechanism of rainfall rates and distributions of LTCs. Research in the area of LTCs has shown that associated heavy rainfall is related closely to mechanisms such as moisture transport, extratropical transition (ET), interaction with monsoon surge, land surface processes or topographic effects, mesoscale convective system activities within the LTC, and boundary layer energy transfer etc.. LTCs interacting with environmental weather systems, especially the westerly trough and mei-yu front, could change the rainfall rate and distribution associated with these mid-latitude weather systems. Recently improved technologies have contributed to advancements within the areas of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). More specifically, progress has been due primarily to remote sensing observations and mesoscale numerical models which incorporate advanced assimilation techniques. Such progress may provide the tools necessary to improve rainfall forecasting techniques associated with LTCs in the future.
2010, 27(5): 977-991.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9186-0
Abstract:
The capability of an improved Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) in reproducing the impact of climate on the terrestrial ecosystem is evaluated. The new model incorporates the Community Land Model-DGVM (CLM3.0-DGVM) with a submodel for temperate and boreal shrubs, as well as other revisions such as the ``two-leaf" scheme for photosynthesis and the definition of fractional coverage of plant functional types (PFTs). Results show that the revised model may correctly reproduce the global distribution of temperate and boreal shrubs, and improves the model performance with more realistic distribution of different vegetation types. The revised model also correctly reproduces the zonal distributions of vegetation types. In reproducing the dependence of the vegetation distribution on climate conditions, the model shows that the dominant regions for trees, grasses, shrubs, and bare soil are clearly separated by a climate index derived from mean annual precipitation and temperature, in good agreement with the CLM4 surface data. The dominant plant functional type mapping to a two dimensional parameter space of mean annual temperature and precipitation also qualitatively agrees with the results from observations and theoretical ecology studies.
The capability of an improved Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) in reproducing the impact of climate on the terrestrial ecosystem is evaluated. The new model incorporates the Community Land Model-DGVM (CLM3.0-DGVM) with a submodel for temperate and boreal shrubs, as well as other revisions such as the ``two-leaf" scheme for photosynthesis and the definition of fractional coverage of plant functional types (PFTs). Results show that the revised model may correctly reproduce the global distribution of temperate and boreal shrubs, and improves the model performance with more realistic distribution of different vegetation types. The revised model also correctly reproduces the zonal distributions of vegetation types. In reproducing the dependence of the vegetation distribution on climate conditions, the model shows that the dominant regions for trees, grasses, shrubs, and bare soil are clearly separated by a climate index derived from mean annual precipitation and temperature, in good agreement with the CLM4 surface data. The dominant plant functional type mapping to a two dimensional parameter space of mean annual temperature and precipitation also qualitatively agrees with the results from observations and theoretical ecology studies.
2010, 27(5): 992-1002.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9124-1
Abstract:
This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO--monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and A2, respectively, by analyzing the simulated results of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) coupled models. The dynamical monsoon index (DMI) was adopted to describe the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon, and the standard deviation (SD) was used to illustrate the intensity of interannual variability. It was found that most models could project enhanced interannual variability of monsoon in the 21st century. The multi-model ensemble (MME) results showed increases in the interannual variability of DMI: 14.3% and 20.0% under scenarios A1B and A2, respectively. The MME result also showed increases in the rainfall variability are of about 10.2% and 22.0% under scenarios A1B and A2. The intensification of interannual variability tended to occur over the regions that have larger variability currently; that is, ``the strong get stronger''. Another finding was that ENSO--monsoon relationships are likely to be enhanced in the 21st century. The dynamical component of the monsoon will be more closely correlated to ENSO in the future under global warming, although the ENSO--summer rainfall relationship cannot be reasonably projected by current models. This suggests that the South Asian summer monsoon is more predictable in the future, at least dynamically.
This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO--monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and A2, respectively, by analyzing the simulated results of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) coupled models. The dynamical monsoon index (DMI) was adopted to describe the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon, and the standard deviation (SD) was used to illustrate the intensity of interannual variability. It was found that most models could project enhanced interannual variability of monsoon in the 21st century. The multi-model ensemble (MME) results showed increases in the interannual variability of DMI: 14.3% and 20.0% under scenarios A1B and A2, respectively. The MME result also showed increases in the rainfall variability are of about 10.2% and 22.0% under scenarios A1B and A2. The intensification of interannual variability tended to occur over the regions that have larger variability currently; that is, ``the strong get stronger''. Another finding was that ENSO--monsoon relationships are likely to be enhanced in the 21st century. The dynamical component of the monsoon will be more closely correlated to ENSO in the future under global warming, although the ENSO--summer rainfall relationship cannot be reasonably projected by current models. This suggests that the South Asian summer monsoon is more predictable in the future, at least dynamically.
2010, 27(5): 1003-1013.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9166-4
Abstract:
Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant ``spring predictability barrier'' (SPB) for El Nino events. First, sensitivity experiments were respectively performed to the air--sea coupling parameter, α and the thermocline effect coefficient μ. The results showed that the uncertainties superimposed on each of the two parameters did not exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution; furthermore, the uncertainties caused a very small prediction error and consequently failed to yield a significant SPB. Subsequently, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach was used to study the effect of the optimal mode (CNOP-P) of the uncertainties of the two parameters on the SPB and to demonstrate that the CNOP-P errors neither presented a unified season-dependent evolution for different El Nino events nor caused a large prediction error, and therefore did not cause a significant SPB. The parameter errors played only a trivial role in yielding a significant SPB. To further validate this conclusion, the authors investigated the effect of the optimal combined mode (i.e. CNOP error) of initial and model errors on SPB. The results illustrated that the CNOP errors tended to have a significant season-dependent evolution, with the largest error growth rate in the spring, and yielded a large prediction error, inducing a significant SPB. The inference, therefore, is that initial errors, rather than model parameter errors, may be the dominant source of uncertainties that cause a significant SPB for El Nino events. These results indicate that the ability to forecast ENSO could be greatly increased by improving the initialization of the forecast model.
Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant ``spring predictability barrier'' (SPB) for El Nino events. First, sensitivity experiments were respectively performed to the air--sea coupling parameter, α and the thermocline effect coefficient μ. The results showed that the uncertainties superimposed on each of the two parameters did not exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution; furthermore, the uncertainties caused a very small prediction error and consequently failed to yield a significant SPB. Subsequently, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach was used to study the effect of the optimal mode (CNOP-P) of the uncertainties of the two parameters on the SPB and to demonstrate that the CNOP-P errors neither presented a unified season-dependent evolution for different El Nino events nor caused a large prediction error, and therefore did not cause a significant SPB. The parameter errors played only a trivial role in yielding a significant SPB. To further validate this conclusion, the authors investigated the effect of the optimal combined mode (i.e. CNOP error) of initial and model errors on SPB. The results illustrated that the CNOP errors tended to have a significant season-dependent evolution, with the largest error growth rate in the spring, and yielded a large prediction error, inducing a significant SPB. The inference, therefore, is that initial errors, rather than model parameter errors, may be the dominant source of uncertainties that cause a significant SPB for El Nino events. These results indicate that the ability to forecast ENSO could be greatly increased by improving the initialization of the forecast model.
2010, 27(5): 1014-1024.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9033-3
Abstract:
The climatology of near-equatorial typhoons over the western-north Pacific are fully investigated using the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) typhoon record from 1951 to 2006. The result shows that there are seasonal and decadal variations, as well as a distinctive spatial distribution, of such events. Among them, Typhoon Vamei is an example of a near-equatorial typhoon that occurred near Singapore in December of 2001. Using the WRF (Weather and Research Forecast) model, we attempt to find out how the well known ``wind surge" of this event contributes to the development of Typhoon Vamei. It is found that the strong wind surge not only helps to provide advection of positive vorticity to Vamei between 800 and 500 hPa, but also increases the convective instability of the lower troposphere, and thus helps to induce convective outbreaks and rapid intensification. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments show that terrain and the land-sea distribution have very limited effects on the formation of Typhoon Vamei in the simulation, but an adequate Coriolis parameter ($f)$ is still needed for the development of Vamei.
The climatology of near-equatorial typhoons over the western-north Pacific are fully investigated using the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) typhoon record from 1951 to 2006. The result shows that there are seasonal and decadal variations, as well as a distinctive spatial distribution, of such events. Among them, Typhoon Vamei is an example of a near-equatorial typhoon that occurred near Singapore in December of 2001. Using the WRF (Weather and Research Forecast) model, we attempt to find out how the well known ``wind surge" of this event contributes to the development of Typhoon Vamei. It is found that the strong wind surge not only helps to provide advection of positive vorticity to Vamei between 800 and 500 hPa, but also increases the convective instability of the lower troposphere, and thus helps to induce convective outbreaks and rapid intensification. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments show that terrain and the land-sea distribution have very limited effects on the formation of Typhoon Vamei in the simulation, but an adequate Coriolis parameter ($f)$ is still needed for the development of Vamei.
2010, 27(5): 1025-1042.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9162-8
Abstract:
A heavy rainfall case related to Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over the Korean Peninsula was selected to investigate the impact of radar data assimilation on a heavy rainfall forecast. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system with tuning of the length scale of the background error covariance and observation error parameters was used to assimilate radar radial velocity and reflectivity data. The radar data used in the assimilation experiments were preprocessed using quality-control procedures and interpolated/thinned into Cartesian coordinates by the SPRINT/CEDRIC packages. Sensitivity experiments were carried out in order to determine the optimal values of the assimilation window length and the update frequency used for the rapid update cycle and incremental analysis update experiments. The assimilation of radar data has a positive influence on the heavy rainfall forecast. Quantitative features of the heavy rainfall case, such as the maximum rainfall amount and Root Mean Squared Differences (RMSDs) of zonal/meridional wind components, were improved by tuning of the length scale and observation error parameters. Qualitative features of the case, such as the maximum rainfall position and time series of hourly rainfall, were enhanced by an incremental analysis update technique. The positive effects of the radar data assimilation and the tuning of the length scale and observation error parameters were clearly shown by the 3DVAR increment.
A heavy rainfall case related to Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over the Korean Peninsula was selected to investigate the impact of radar data assimilation on a heavy rainfall forecast. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system with tuning of the length scale of the background error covariance and observation error parameters was used to assimilate radar radial velocity and reflectivity data. The radar data used in the assimilation experiments were preprocessed using quality-control procedures and interpolated/thinned into Cartesian coordinates by the SPRINT/CEDRIC packages. Sensitivity experiments were carried out in order to determine the optimal values of the assimilation window length and the update frequency used for the rapid update cycle and incremental analysis update experiments. The assimilation of radar data has a positive influence on the heavy rainfall forecast. Quantitative features of the heavy rainfall case, such as the maximum rainfall amount and Root Mean Squared Differences (RMSDs) of zonal/meridional wind components, were improved by tuning of the length scale and observation error parameters. Qualitative features of the case, such as the maximum rainfall position and time series of hourly rainfall, were enhanced by an incremental analysis update technique. The positive effects of the radar data assimilation and the tuning of the length scale and observation error parameters were clearly shown by the 3DVAR increment.
2010, 27(5): 1043-1050.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9126-z
Abstract:
Air mass is inter-hemispherically redistributed, leading to an interesting phenomenon known as the Inter-Hemispheric Oscillation (IHO). In the present article, the seasonality of the interannual IHO has been examined by employing monthly mean reanalyses from NCEP/NCAR, EAR40, and JRA25 for the period of 1958--2006. It is found that the IHO indices as calculated from different reanalyses are generally consistent with each other. A distinct seesaw structure in all four seasons between the northern and southern hemispheres is observed as the IHO signature in both the surface air pressure anomalies (SAPAs) and the leading EOF component of the anomalous zonal mean quantities. When the SAPAs are positive (negative) in the northern hemisphere, they are negative (positive) in the southern hemisphere. Large values of SAPAs are usually observed in mid- and high-latitude areas in all but the solstice seasons. In boreal summer and winter, relatively stronger perturbations of IHO-related SAPA are found in the Asian monsoon region, which shows a large difference from the status in boreal spring and fall. This suggests that seasonal mean monsoon activity is globally linked via air mass redistribution globally on interannual timescales, showing a very interesting linkage between monsoons and the IHO in the global domain. In all seasons, large values of SAPA always exist over the Antarctic and the surrounding regions, implying a close relation with Antarctic oscillations.
Air mass is inter-hemispherically redistributed, leading to an interesting phenomenon known as the Inter-Hemispheric Oscillation (IHO). In the present article, the seasonality of the interannual IHO has been examined by employing monthly mean reanalyses from NCEP/NCAR, EAR40, and JRA25 for the period of 1958--2006. It is found that the IHO indices as calculated from different reanalyses are generally consistent with each other. A distinct seesaw structure in all four seasons between the northern and southern hemispheres is observed as the IHO signature in both the surface air pressure anomalies (SAPAs) and the leading EOF component of the anomalous zonal mean quantities. When the SAPAs are positive (negative) in the northern hemisphere, they are negative (positive) in the southern hemisphere. Large values of SAPAs are usually observed in mid- and high-latitude areas in all but the solstice seasons. In boreal summer and winter, relatively stronger perturbations of IHO-related SAPA are found in the Asian monsoon region, which shows a large difference from the status in boreal spring and fall. This suggests that seasonal mean monsoon activity is globally linked via air mass redistribution globally on interannual timescales, showing a very interesting linkage between monsoons and the IHO in the global domain. In all seasons, large values of SAPA always exist over the Antarctic and the surrounding regions, implying a close relation with Antarctic oscillations.
2010, 27(5): 1051-1063.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9167-3
Abstract:
The vertical structures of atmospheric temperature anomalies associated with El Nino are simulated with a spectrum atmospheric general circulation model developed by LASG/IAP (SAMIL). Sensitivity of the model's response to convection scheme is discussed. Two convection schemes, i.e., the revised Zhang and Macfarlane (RZM) and Tiedtke (TDK) convection schemes, are employed in two sets of AMIP-type (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) SAMIL simulations, respectively. Despite some deficiencies in the upper troposphere, the canonical El Nino-related temperature anomalies characterized by a prevailing warming throughout the tropical troposphere are well reproduced in both simulations. The performance of the model in reproducing temperature anomalies in ``atypical" El Nino events is sensitive to the convection scheme. When employing the RZM scheme, the warming center over the central-eastern tropical Pacific and the strong cooling in the western tropical Pacific at sea surface level are underestimated. The quadru-pole temperature anomalies in the middle and upper troposphere are also obscured. The result of employing the TDK scheme resembles the reanalysis and hence shows a better performance. The simulated large-scale circulations associated with atypical El Nino events are also sensitive to the convection schemes. When employing the RZM scheme, SAMIL failed in capturing the classical Southern Oscillation pattern. In accordance with the unrealistic anomalous Walker circulation and the upper tropospheric zonal wind changes, the deficiencies of the precipitation simulation are also evident. These results demonstrate the importance of convection schemes in simulating the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature anomalies associated with El Nino and should serve as a useful reference for future improvement of SAMIL.
The vertical structures of atmospheric temperature anomalies associated with El Nino are simulated with a spectrum atmospheric general circulation model developed by LASG/IAP (SAMIL). Sensitivity of the model's response to convection scheme is discussed. Two convection schemes, i.e., the revised Zhang and Macfarlane (RZM) and Tiedtke (TDK) convection schemes, are employed in two sets of AMIP-type (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) SAMIL simulations, respectively. Despite some deficiencies in the upper troposphere, the canonical El Nino-related temperature anomalies characterized by a prevailing warming throughout the tropical troposphere are well reproduced in both simulations. The performance of the model in reproducing temperature anomalies in ``atypical" El Nino events is sensitive to the convection scheme. When employing the RZM scheme, the warming center over the central-eastern tropical Pacific and the strong cooling in the western tropical Pacific at sea surface level are underestimated. The quadru-pole temperature anomalies in the middle and upper troposphere are also obscured. The result of employing the TDK scheme resembles the reanalysis and hence shows a better performance. The simulated large-scale circulations associated with atypical El Nino events are also sensitive to the convection schemes. When employing the RZM scheme, SAMIL failed in capturing the classical Southern Oscillation pattern. In accordance with the unrealistic anomalous Walker circulation and the upper tropospheric zonal wind changes, the deficiencies of the precipitation simulation are also evident. These results demonstrate the importance of convection schemes in simulating the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature anomalies associated with El Nino and should serve as a useful reference for future improvement of SAMIL.
2010, 27(5): 1064-1077.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9120-5
Abstract:
Aerosol indirect effects (AIEs) on global climate were quantitatively investigated by introducing aerosol--cloud interaction parameterizations for water stratus clouds into an AGCM (BCC_AGCM2.0.1), which was developed by the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration. The study yielded a global annual mean of -1.14 W m-2 for the first indirect radiative forcing (IRF), with an obvious seasonal change. In summer, large forcing mainly occurred in mid to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, whereas in winter, large values were found at 60oS.The second indirect effect led to global annual mean changes in net shortwave flux of -1.03 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), which was relatively significant in mid-latitude regions of both hemispheres. The total AIE reduced the global annual means of net shortwave flux at the TOA and of surface temperature by 1.93 W m-2 and 0.12 K, respectively. Change in surface temperature induced by the total AIE was clearly larger in the Northern Hemisphere (-0.23 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere, where changes were negligible. The interhemispheric asymmetry in surface cooling resulted in significant differences in changes of the interhemispheric annual mean precipitation rate, which could lead to a tendency for the ITCZ to broaden. The total AIE decreased the global annual mean precipitation rate by 0.055 mm d-1.
Aerosol indirect effects (AIEs) on global climate were quantitatively investigated by introducing aerosol--cloud interaction parameterizations for water stratus clouds into an AGCM (BCC_AGCM2.0.1), which was developed by the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration. The study yielded a global annual mean of -1.14 W m-2 for the first indirect radiative forcing (IRF), with an obvious seasonal change. In summer, large forcing mainly occurred in mid to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, whereas in winter, large values were found at 60oS.The second indirect effect led to global annual mean changes in net shortwave flux of -1.03 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), which was relatively significant in mid-latitude regions of both hemispheres. The total AIE reduced the global annual means of net shortwave flux at the TOA and of surface temperature by 1.93 W m-2 and 0.12 K, respectively. Change in surface temperature induced by the total AIE was clearly larger in the Northern Hemisphere (-0.23 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere, where changes were negligible. The interhemispheric asymmetry in surface cooling resulted in significant differences in changes of the interhemispheric annual mean precipitation rate, which could lead to a tendency for the ITCZ to broaden. The total AIE decreased the global annual mean precipitation rate by 0.055 mm d-1.
2010, 27(5): 1078-1088.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-8088-5
Abstract:
By use of a three-dimensional compressible non-hydrostatic convective cloud model with detailed microphysics featuring spectral bins of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), liquid droplets, ice crystals, snow and graupel particles, the spatial and temporal distributions of hydrometeors in a supercell observed by the (Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study) STEPS triple-radar network are simulated and analyzed. The bin model is also employed to study the effect of CCN concentration on the evolution characteristics of the supercell. It is found that the CCN concentration not only affects the concentration and spectral distribution of water droplets, but also influences the characteristics of ice crystals and graupel particles. With a larger number of CCN, more water droplets and ice crystals are produced and the growth of graupel is restrained. With a small quantity of CCN the production of large size water droplets are promoted by initially small concentrations of water droplets and ice crystals, leading to earlier formation of small size graupel and restraining the recycling growth of graupel, and thus inhibiting the formation of large size graupel (or small size hail). It can be concluded that both the macroscopic airflow and microphysical processes influence the formation and growth of large size graupel (or small size hail). In regions with heavy pollution, a high concentration of CCN may restrain the formation of graupel and hail, and in extremely clean regions, excessively low concentrations of CCN may also limit the formation of large size graupel (hail).
By use of a three-dimensional compressible non-hydrostatic convective cloud model with detailed microphysics featuring spectral bins of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), liquid droplets, ice crystals, snow and graupel particles, the spatial and temporal distributions of hydrometeors in a supercell observed by the (Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study) STEPS triple-radar network are simulated and analyzed. The bin model is also employed to study the effect of CCN concentration on the evolution characteristics of the supercell. It is found that the CCN concentration not only affects the concentration and spectral distribution of water droplets, but also influences the characteristics of ice crystals and graupel particles. With a larger number of CCN, more water droplets and ice crystals are produced and the growth of graupel is restrained. With a small quantity of CCN the production of large size water droplets are promoted by initially small concentrations of water droplets and ice crystals, leading to earlier formation of small size graupel and restraining the recycling growth of graupel, and thus inhibiting the formation of large size graupel (or small size hail). It can be concluded that both the macroscopic airflow and microphysical processes influence the formation and growth of large size graupel (or small size hail). In regions with heavy pollution, a high concentration of CCN may restrain the formation of graupel and hail, and in extremely clean regions, excessively low concentrations of CCN may also limit the formation of large size graupel (hail).
2010, 27(5): 1089-1098.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9154-8
Abstract:
This paper proposes several quantitative characteristics to study convective systems using observations from Doppler weather radars and geostationary satellites. Specifically, in order to measure the convective intensity of each system, a new index, named the ``Convective Intensity Ratio'' (CIR), is defined as the ratio between the area of strong radar echoes at the upper level and the size of the convective cell itself. Based on these quantitative characteristics, the evolution of convective cells, surface rainfall intensity, rainfall area and convectively generated anvil clouds can be studied, and the relationships between them can also be analyzed. After testing nine meso-β-scale convective systems over North China during 2006--2007, the results were as follows: (1) the CIR was highly correlated with surface rainfall intensity, and the correlation reached a maximum when the CIR led rainfall intensity by 6--30 mins. The maximum CIR could be at most ～30 mins before the maximum rainfall intensity. (2) Convective systems with larger maximum CIRs usually had colder cloud-tops. (3) The maximum area of anvil cloud appeared 0.5--1.5 h after rainfall intensity began to weaken. The maximum area of anvil cloud and the time lag between maximum rainfall intensity and the maximum area of anvil cloud both increased with the CIR.
This paper proposes several quantitative characteristics to study convective systems using observations from Doppler weather radars and geostationary satellites. Specifically, in order to measure the convective intensity of each system, a new index, named the ``Convective Intensity Ratio'' (CIR), is defined as the ratio between the area of strong radar echoes at the upper level and the size of the convective cell itself. Based on these quantitative characteristics, the evolution of convective cells, surface rainfall intensity, rainfall area and convectively generated anvil clouds can be studied, and the relationships between them can also be analyzed. After testing nine meso-β-scale convective systems over North China during 2006--2007, the results were as follows: (1) the CIR was highly correlated with surface rainfall intensity, and the correlation reached a maximum when the CIR led rainfall intensity by 6--30 mins. The maximum CIR could be at most ～30 mins before the maximum rainfall intensity. (2) Convective systems with larger maximum CIRs usually had colder cloud-tops. (3) The maximum area of anvil cloud appeared 0.5--1.5 h after rainfall intensity began to weaken. The maximum area of anvil cloud and the time lag between maximum rainfall intensity and the maximum area of anvil cloud both increased with the CIR.
2010, 27(5): 1099-1109.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8217-1
Abstract:
A long-lived and loosely organized squall line moved rapidly across Urumqi, the capital city of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China on 26 June 2005, generating hail and strong winds. The squall line was observed by a dual Doppler radar system in a field experiment conducted in 2004 and 2005 by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences and the local meteorological bureau in northwestern China. The 3D wind fields within the squall line were retrieved through dual Doppler analyses and a variational Doppler radar analysis system (VDRAS). The formation and structure of the squall line as well as the genesis and evolution of embedded convective cells were investigated. During its life period, the squall line consisted of six storm cells extending about 100 km in length, and produced hail of about 25 mm in diameter and strong surface winds up to 11 m s-1. Radar observations revealed a broad region of stratiform rain in a meso-β cyclone, with the squall line located to the west of this. Two meso-γ scale vortices were found within the squall line. Compared to typical squall lines in moist regions, such as Guangdong Province and Shanghai, which tend to be around 300--400 km in length, have echo tops of 17--19 km, and produce maximum surface winds of about 25 m s-1 and temperature variations of about 8oC this squall line system had weaker maximum reflectivity (55 dBZ), a lower echo top (13 km) and smaller extension (about 100 km), relatively little stratiform rainfall preceding the convective line, and a similar moving speed and temperature variation at the surface.
A long-lived and loosely organized squall line moved rapidly across Urumqi, the capital city of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China on 26 June 2005, generating hail and strong winds. The squall line was observed by a dual Doppler radar system in a field experiment conducted in 2004 and 2005 by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences and the local meteorological bureau in northwestern China. The 3D wind fields within the squall line were retrieved through dual Doppler analyses and a variational Doppler radar analysis system (VDRAS). The formation and structure of the squall line as well as the genesis and evolution of embedded convective cells were investigated. During its life period, the squall line consisted of six storm cells extending about 100 km in length, and produced hail of about 25 mm in diameter and strong surface winds up to 11 m s-1. Radar observations revealed a broad region of stratiform rain in a meso-β cyclone, with the squall line located to the west of this. Two meso-γ scale vortices were found within the squall line. Compared to typical squall lines in moist regions, such as Guangdong Province and Shanghai, which tend to be around 300--400 km in length, have echo tops of 17--19 km, and produce maximum surface winds of about 25 m s-1 and temperature variations of about 8oC this squall line system had weaker maximum reflectivity (55 dBZ), a lower echo top (13 km) and smaller extension (about 100 km), relatively little stratiform rainfall preceding the convective line, and a similar moving speed and temperature variation at the surface.
2010, 27(5): 1110-1118.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9133-0
Abstract:
Estimation of large-scale land surface temperature from satellite images is of great importance for the study of climate change. This is especially true for the most challenging areas, such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this paper, two split window algorithms (SWAs), one for the NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the other for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), were applied to retrieve land surface temperature (LST) over the TP simultaneously. AVHRR and MODIS data from 17 January, 14 April, 23 July, and 16 October 2003 were selected as the cases for winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. Firstly, two key parameters (emissivity and water vapor content) were calculated at the pixel scale. Then, the derived LST was compared with in situ measurements from the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) Asia-Australia Monsoon Project (CAMP) on the TP (CAMP/Tibet) area. They were in good accordance with each other, with an average percentage error (PE) of 10.5% for AVHRR data and 8.3% for MODIS data, meaning the adopted SWAs were applicable in the TP area. The derived LST also showed a wide range and a clear seasonal difference. The results from AVHRR were also in agreement with MODIS, with the latter usually displaying a higher level of accuracy.
Estimation of large-scale land surface temperature from satellite images is of great importance for the study of climate change. This is especially true for the most challenging areas, such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this paper, two split window algorithms (SWAs), one for the NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the other for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), were applied to retrieve land surface temperature (LST) over the TP simultaneously. AVHRR and MODIS data from 17 January, 14 April, 23 July, and 16 October 2003 were selected as the cases for winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. Firstly, two key parameters (emissivity and water vapor content) were calculated at the pixel scale. Then, the derived LST was compared with in situ measurements from the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) Asia-Australia Monsoon Project (CAMP) on the TP (CAMP/Tibet) area. They were in good accordance with each other, with an average percentage error (PE) of 10.5% for AVHRR data and 8.3% for MODIS data, meaning the adopted SWAs were applicable in the TP area. The derived LST also showed a wide range and a clear seasonal difference. The results from AVHRR were also in agreement with MODIS, with the latter usually displaying a higher level of accuracy.
2010, 27(5): 1119-1130.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9093-4
Abstract:
Extending the lead time of precipitation nowcasts is vital to improvements in heavy rainfall warning, flood mitigation, and water resource management. Because the TREC vector (tracking radar echo by correlation) represents only the instantaneous trend of precipitation echo motion, the approach using derived echo motion vectors to extrapolate radar reflectivity as a rainfall forecast is not satisfactory if the lead time is beyond 30 minutes. For longer lead times, the effect of ambient winds on echo movement should be considered. In this paper, an extrapolation algorithm that extends forecast lead times up to 3 hours was developed to blend TREC vectors with model-predicted winds. The TREC vectors were derived from radar reflectivity patterns in 3 km height CAPPI (constant altitude plan position indicator) mosaics through a cross-correlation technique. The background steering winds were provided by predictions of the rapid update assimilation model CHAF (cycle of hourly assimilation and forecast). A similarity index was designed to determine the vertical level at which model winds were applied in the extrapolation process, which occurs via a comparison between model winds and radar vectors. Based on a summer rainfall case study, it is found that the new algorithm provides a better forecast.
Extending the lead time of precipitation nowcasts is vital to improvements in heavy rainfall warning, flood mitigation, and water resource management. Because the TREC vector (tracking radar echo by correlation) represents only the instantaneous trend of precipitation echo motion, the approach using derived echo motion vectors to extrapolate radar reflectivity as a rainfall forecast is not satisfactory if the lead time is beyond 30 minutes. For longer lead times, the effect of ambient winds on echo movement should be considered. In this paper, an extrapolation algorithm that extends forecast lead times up to 3 hours was developed to blend TREC vectors with model-predicted winds. The TREC vectors were derived from radar reflectivity patterns in 3 km height CAPPI (constant altitude plan position indicator) mosaics through a cross-correlation technique. The background steering winds were provided by predictions of the rapid update assimilation model CHAF (cycle of hourly assimilation and forecast). A similarity index was designed to determine the vertical level at which model winds were applied in the extrapolation process, which occurs via a comparison between model winds and radar vectors. Based on a summer rainfall case study, it is found that the new algorithm provides a better forecast.
2010, 27(5): 1131-1142.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9177-1
Abstract:
The spectral version 1.1 of the Flexible Global Ocean--atmosphere--land System (FGOALS1.1-s) model was developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP). This paper reports the major modifications to the physical parameterization package in its atmospheric component, including the radiation scheme, convection scheme, and cloud scheme. Furthermore, the simulation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) by FGOALS1.1-s is examined, both in terms of climatological mean state and interannual variability. The results indicate that FGOALS1.1-s exhibits significant improvements in the simulation of the balance of energy at the top of the atmosphere: the net radiative energy flux at the top was 0.003 W m-2 in the 40 years fully coupled integration. The distribution of simulated sea surface temperature was also quite reasonable, without obvious climate drift. FGOALS1.1-s is also capable of capturing the major features of the climatological mean state of the EASM: major rainfall maximum centers, the annual cycle of precipitation, and the lower-level monsoon circulation flow were highly consistent with observations in the EASM region. Regarding interannual variability, simulation of the EASM leading patterns and their relationship with sea surface temperature was examined. The results show that FGOALS1.1-s can reproduce the first leading pattern of the EASM and its close relationship with the decaying phase of the ENSO. However, the model lacked the ability to capture either the second major mode of the EASM or its relationship with the developing phase of the ENSO.
The spectral version 1.1 of the Flexible Global Ocean--atmosphere--land System (FGOALS1.1-s) model was developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP). This paper reports the major modifications to the physical parameterization package in its atmospheric component, including the radiation scheme, convection scheme, and cloud scheme. Furthermore, the simulation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) by FGOALS1.1-s is examined, both in terms of climatological mean state and interannual variability. The results indicate that FGOALS1.1-s exhibits significant improvements in the simulation of the balance of energy at the top of the atmosphere: the net radiative energy flux at the top was 0.003 W m-2 in the 40 years fully coupled integration. The distribution of simulated sea surface temperature was also quite reasonable, without obvious climate drift. FGOALS1.1-s is also capable of capturing the major features of the climatological mean state of the EASM: major rainfall maximum centers, the annual cycle of precipitation, and the lower-level monsoon circulation flow were highly consistent with observations in the EASM region. Regarding interannual variability, simulation of the EASM leading patterns and their relationship with sea surface temperature was examined. The results show that FGOALS1.1-s can reproduce the first leading pattern of the EASM and its close relationship with the decaying phase of the ENSO. However, the model lacked the ability to capture either the second major mode of the EASM or its relationship with the developing phase of the ENSO.
2010, 27(5): 1143-1150.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9136-x
Abstract:
This study investigated the effects of landfall on the structure of a tropical cyclone (TC). Numerical simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a β-plane. Two landfall experiments, one with an east--west and another with a north--south oriented coastline, were performed. Similar to previous studies on an f-plane, large-scale flows in the low-to-middle troposphere were modified due to friction. A pair of counter rotating gyres was found, which was shown to be consistent with the slight deflection of the TC relative to the control experiment without land. Compared to previous f-plane simulations, because of the inherent asymmetries due to the β-gyres, the large-scale pattern of flows and convergences/divergences related to friction were found to depend on coastline orientations. On the other hand, regardless of the coastline orientation, convergences were found to be stronger to the left for both cases near landfall, as in previous f-plane simulations. Such a convergence pattern subsequently induced a change in convection and rainfall at the eyewall.
This study investigated the effects of landfall on the structure of a tropical cyclone (TC). Numerical simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a β-plane. Two landfall experiments, one with an east--west and another with a north--south oriented coastline, were performed. Similar to previous studies on an f-plane, large-scale flows in the low-to-middle troposphere were modified due to friction. A pair of counter rotating gyres was found, which was shown to be consistent with the slight deflection of the TC relative to the control experiment without land. Compared to previous f-plane simulations, because of the inherent asymmetries due to the β-gyres, the large-scale pattern of flows and convergences/divergences related to friction were found to depend on coastline orientations. On the other hand, regardless of the coastline orientation, convergences were found to be stronger to the left for both cases near landfall, as in previous f-plane simulations. Such a convergence pattern subsequently induced a change in convection and rainfall at the eyewall.
2010, 27(5): 1151-1168.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9140-1
Abstract:
The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) ECMWF (ERA-40) and NCEP--NCAR reanalysis data were compared with Antarctic station observations, including surface-layer and upper-layer atmospheric observations, on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. At the interannual timescale, atmospheric pressure at different height levels in the ERA-40 data are in better agreement with observed pressure than that in the NCEP--NCAR reanalysis data. ERA-40 reanalysis also outperforms NCEP--NCAR reanalysis in atmospheric temperature, except in the surface layer where the biases are somewhat larger. The wind velocity fields in both datasets do not agree well with surface- and upper-layer atmospheric observations. At intraseasonal timescales, both datasets capture the observed intraseasonal variability in pressure and temperature during austral winter.
The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) ECMWF (ERA-40) and NCEP--NCAR reanalysis data were compared with Antarctic station observations, including surface-layer and upper-layer atmospheric observations, on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. At the interannual timescale, atmospheric pressure at different height levels in the ERA-40 data are in better agreement with observed pressure than that in the NCEP--NCAR reanalysis data. ERA-40 reanalysis also outperforms NCEP--NCAR reanalysis in atmospheric temperature, except in the surface layer where the biases are somewhat larger. The wind velocity fields in both datasets do not agree well with surface- and upper-layer atmospheric observations. At intraseasonal timescales, both datasets capture the observed intraseasonal variability in pressure and temperature during austral winter.
2010, 27(5): 1169-1182.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9121-4
Abstract:
The traditional anomaly (TA) reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle (MAC), instead of the widely used climatological mean annual cycle, is used as an alternative reference frame for computing climate anomalies to study the multi-timescale variability of surface air temperature (SAT) in China based on homogenized daily data from 1952 to 2004. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method is used to separate daily SAT into a high frequency component, a MAC component, an interannual component, and a decadal-to-trend component. The results show that the EEMD method can reflect historical events reasonably well, indicating its adaptive and temporally local characteristics. It is shown that MAC is a temporally local reference frame and will not be altered over a particular time span by an extension of data length, thereby making it easier for physical interpretation. In the MAC reference frame, the low frequency component is found more suitable for studying the interannual to longer timescale variability (ILV) than a 13-month window running mean, which does not exclude the annual cycle. It is also better than other traditional versions (annual or summer or winter mean) of ILV, which contains a portion of the annual cycle. The analysis reveals that the variability of the annual cycle could be as large as the magnitude of interannual variability. The possible physical causes of different timescale variability of SAT in China are further discussed.
The traditional anomaly (TA) reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle (MAC), instead of the widely used climatological mean annual cycle, is used as an alternative reference frame for computing climate anomalies to study the multi-timescale variability of surface air temperature (SAT) in China based on homogenized daily data from 1952 to 2004. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method is used to separate daily SAT into a high frequency component, a MAC component, an interannual component, and a decadal-to-trend component. The results show that the EEMD method can reflect historical events reasonably well, indicating its adaptive and temporally local characteristics. It is shown that MAC is a temporally local reference frame and will not be altered over a particular time span by an extension of data length, thereby making it easier for physical interpretation. In the MAC reference frame, the low frequency component is found more suitable for studying the interannual to longer timescale variability (ILV) than a 13-month window running mean, which does not exclude the annual cycle. It is also better than other traditional versions (annual or summer or winter mean) of ILV, which contains a portion of the annual cycle. The analysis reveals that the variability of the annual cycle could be as large as the magnitude of interannual variability. The possible physical causes of different timescale variability of SAT in China are further discussed.
2010, 27(5): 1183-1192.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9157-5
Abstract:
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the spectral atmospheric general circulation Model (AGCM) of IAP/LASG (SAMIL) are employed to investigate the transport and balance of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM). It is demonstrated that SAMIL depicts the general features of the AAM transport and balance reasonably well. The AAM sources are in the tropics and sinks are in the mid-latitudes. The strongest meridional transport occurs in the upper troposphere. The atmosphere gains westerly momentum and transports it upward in the areas of surface easterlies, and downward into the areas of surface westerlies. Consequently, AAM balance is maintained. Systematic biases of the model compared to the reanalysis and observations are revealed. Possible mechanisms for these biases are investigated. In SAMIL, the friction torque in the tropics is stronger compared to the observations, which is probably due to the excessive precipitation along the Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the model, since the simulated Hadley circulation is much stronger than observed. In the winter half of the year, the transport center is in the lower troposphere in the SAMIL model, but it is in the upper troposphere in the reanalysis and observations. These discrepancies also suggest that simulations of convection and tropical precipitation need to be improved and that higher resolution is necessary for a quantitative simulation of AAM transport and balance. Results also demonstrate that the analysis of the transport and balance of atmospheric angular momentum is a powerful tool in diagnosing climate models for potential improvement.
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the spectral atmospheric general circulation Model (AGCM) of IAP/LASG (SAMIL) are employed to investigate the transport and balance of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM). It is demonstrated that SAMIL depicts the general features of the AAM transport and balance reasonably well. The AAM sources are in the tropics and sinks are in the mid-latitudes. The strongest meridional transport occurs in the upper troposphere. The atmosphere gains westerly momentum and transports it upward in the areas of surface easterlies, and downward into the areas of surface westerlies. Consequently, AAM balance is maintained. Systematic biases of the model compared to the reanalysis and observations are revealed. Possible mechanisms for these biases are investigated. In SAMIL, the friction torque in the tropics is stronger compared to the observations, which is probably due to the excessive precipitation along the Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the model, since the simulated Hadley circulation is much stronger than observed. In the winter half of the year, the transport center is in the lower troposphere in the SAMIL model, but it is in the upper troposphere in the reanalysis and observations. These discrepancies also suggest that simulations of convection and tropical precipitation need to be improved and that higher resolution is necessary for a quantitative simulation of AAM transport and balance. Results also demonstrate that the analysis of the transport and balance of atmospheric angular momentum is a powerful tool in diagnosing climate models for potential improvement.
2010, 27(5): 1193-1209.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9156-6
Abstract:
The strong heavy rainfall on 3--5 July 2003 causing the severe flooding in Huaihe River basin (HRB), China is studied. It is noted that there are sometimes mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in East Asia during the mei-yu season. Simulation results from the ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction) data analysis system (ADAS) and WRF model were used to study the development of the mesoscale convective system (MCS) and mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). It is confirmed that the MCV formed during the development of a previous severe MCS. A closed vortex circulation can be found below 600 hPa with a vorticity maximum in the middle troposphere. The evolution process of the MCV can be divided into three stages: initiation, maturation, and dissipation. During the mature stage of the MCV, a downdraft occurred in the center of the MCV and new convection developed in southeast of the MCV. The convergence and the tilting in the lower troposphere convergence and vertical advection in the middle troposphere were the main vorticity sources in the MCV initiation stage. Finally, a conceptual model between the mei-yu front and the embedded MCS and MCV is proposed. The mei-yu front was the background condition for the development of the MCS and MCV. A low level jet (LLJ) transported moisture and the weak cold air invasion via a trough aloft in the middle troposphere and triggering the severe convection. Furthermore, the intensified jet was able to result in the initiation of new ``secondary" areas of convection in the eastern part of the MCV.
The strong heavy rainfall on 3--5 July 2003 causing the severe flooding in Huaihe River basin (HRB), China is studied. It is noted that there are sometimes mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in East Asia during the mei-yu season. Simulation results from the ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction) data analysis system (ADAS) and WRF model were used to study the development of the mesoscale convective system (MCS) and mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). It is confirmed that the MCV formed during the development of a previous severe MCS. A closed vortex circulation can be found below 600 hPa with a vorticity maximum in the middle troposphere. The evolution process of the MCV can be divided into three stages: initiation, maturation, and dissipation. During the mature stage of the MCV, a downdraft occurred in the center of the MCV and new convection developed in southeast of the MCV. The convergence and the tilting in the lower troposphere convergence and vertical advection in the middle troposphere were the main vorticity sources in the MCV initiation stage. Finally, a conceptual model between the mei-yu front and the embedded MCS and MCV is proposed. The mei-yu front was the background condition for the development of the MCS and MCV. A low level jet (LLJ) transported moisture and the weak cold air invasion via a trough aloft in the middle troposphere and triggering the severe convection. Furthermore, the intensified jet was able to result in the initiation of new ``secondary" areas of convection in the eastern part of the MCV.
2010, 27(5): 1210-1220.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9173-5
Abstract:
In recent years, El Nino Modoki (pseudo-El Nino) has been distinguished as a unique large-scale ocean warming phenomenon happening in the central tropical Pacific that is quite different from the traditional El Nino. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is used to successfully separate El Nino and El Nino Modoki. The abilities of the NINO3 index, NINO3.4 index, NINO1+2 index and NINO4 index in characterizing the El Nino are explored in detail. It is suggested that the NINO3 index is comparatively optimal to monitor the El Nino among the four NINO indices, since other NINO indices either cannot well distinguish El Nino and El Nino Modoki signals or are easily disturbed by El Nino Modoki signals. Further, an improved El Nino Modoki index (IEMI) is introduced to better represent the El Nino Modoki that is captured by the second leading EOF mode of monthly tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The IEMI is an improvement of the El Nino Modoki index (EMI) through adjusting the inappropriate weight coefficients of the three boxes of EMI, and it effectively overcomes the lack of EMI in monitoring the two historical El Nino Modoki events and also avoids the possible risk of EMI in excluding the interference of El Nino signal, indicating the realistic and potential advantages.
In recent years, El Nino Modoki (pseudo-El Nino) has been distinguished as a unique large-scale ocean warming phenomenon happening in the central tropical Pacific that is quite different from the traditional El Nino. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is used to successfully separate El Nino and El Nino Modoki. The abilities of the NINO3 index, NINO3.4 index, NINO1+2 index and NINO4 index in characterizing the El Nino are explored in detail. It is suggested that the NINO3 index is comparatively optimal to monitor the El Nino among the four NINO indices, since other NINO indices either cannot well distinguish El Nino and El Nino Modoki signals or are easily disturbed by El Nino Modoki signals. Further, an improved El Nino Modoki index (IEMI) is introduced to better represent the El Nino Modoki that is captured by the second leading EOF mode of monthly tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The IEMI is an improvement of the El Nino Modoki index (EMI) through adjusting the inappropriate weight coefficients of the three boxes of EMI, and it effectively overcomes the lack of EMI in monitoring the two historical El Nino Modoki events and also avoids the possible risk of EMI in excluding the interference of El Nino signal, indicating the realistic and potential advantages.
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