## 2013 Vol. 30, No. 3

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2013, 30(3): 542-542. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-0002-5
Abstract:
The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) is a coupled climate model that allows researchers to conduct fundamental research into the Earths past, present, near-term and long-term future climate states. FGOALS couples the ocean, atmosphere, land, and sea ice through a coupler that coordinates the component models and passes the exchange of energy, momentum, and water among them. The first version of the model, FGOALS1, was released in 2004 as a new version of the Global Ocean-Atmosphere- Land System Model (GOALS), which has been developed by LASG/IAP since the early 1990s. FGOALS1 has been applied to comparative model calculations in the context of CMIP3, as well as a variety of scientific studies that support the implementation of many Chinese research projects. The second version of the model, FGOALS2, was released in 2009, and its experiments as part of CMIP5 have been conducted in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The output from the FGOALS CMIP5 runs is available to the international climate research community via the Earth System Grid gateway at LASG/IAP: http://esg.lasg.ac.cn. FGOALS2 has two versions, FGOALS-s2 and FGOALS-g2, which share the same coupling framework, ocean and land components, but adopt different atmospheric and sea ice components. Although the development of FGOALS2 is based at LASG/IAP, it is a cooperative effort among several Chinese research centers/institutions. The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, has contributed to the setup of the coupler used in these two versions. The Center of Earth System Science (CESS), Tsinghua University, has devoted itself to the code optimization of FGOALS-g2. More than half of the FGOALS-g2 CMIP5 experiments were performed on the supercomputer at CESS. The Sate Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry (LAPC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, has been dedicated to the ocean carbon cycle module of FGOALS-s2. The School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, has long been involved in the assessment of the model. The Supercomputing Center of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Supercomputing Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, have provided most of the computer resources for the FGOALS CMIP5 experiments. This special issue is mainly focused on the results from FGOALS: there are four introductory papers and 26 papers documenting various aspects of the model. Of these, 17 of the papers evaluate the performances of the two versions of FGOALS in terms of climate phenomena and their variability across many time scales; the remaining nine compare FGOALS to other CMIP5/CMIP3 models. The study of climate system models needs long-term and common efforts. After more than five yearsdevelopment of the new FGOALS version, improvements can be seen in many aspects. Nevertheless, we also still find limitations and biases in the current version. This special issue documents both the strengths and weaknesses of the FGOALS CMIP5 experiments and provides a useful reference for the future development and improvement of the FGOALS model. Coordinated by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Earth System Model of the Chinese Academy of Sciences is in progress at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. Many laboratories and research centers inside and outside the IAP, including LASG/IAP, have been involved in the efforts. The FGOALS team should continue to make contributions. It is hoped that these cooperative efforts will provide a powerful Earth system modeling platform available for use by the scientific community in the near future.
2013, 30(3): 543-560. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2140-6
Abstract:
This study mainly introduces the development of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) and the preliminary evaluations of its performances based on results from the pre-industrial control run and four members of historical runs according to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) experiment design. The results suggest that many obvious improvements have been achieved by the FGOALS-g2 compared with the previous version,FGOALS-g1, including its climatological mean states, climate variability, and 20th century surface temperature evolution. For example,FGOALS-g2 better simulates the frequency of tropical land precipitation, East Asian Monsoon precipitation and its seasonal cycle, MJO and ENSO, which are closely related to the updated cumulus parameterization scheme, as well as the alleviation of uncertainties in some key parameters in shallow and deep convection schemes,cloud fraction,cloud macro/microphysical processes and the boundary layer scheme in its atmospheric model. The annual cycle of sea surface temperature along the equator in the Pacific is significantly improved in the new version. The sea ice salinity simulation is one of the unique characteristics of FGOALS-g2, although it is somehow inconsistent with empirical observations in the Antarctic.
2013, 30(3): 561-576. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2113-9
Abstract:
The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2) was used to simulate realistic climates and to study anthropogenic influences on climate change. Specifically, the FGOALS-s2 was integrated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to conduct coordinated experiments that will provide valuable scientific information to climate research communities. The performances of FGOALS-s2 were assessed in simulating major climate phenomena, and documented both the strengths and weaknesses of the model. The results indicate that FGOALS-s2 successfully overcomes climate drift, and realistically models global and regional climate characteristics, including SST, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation. In particular, the model accurately captures annual and semi-annual SST cycles in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the main characteristic features of the Asian summer monsoon, which include a low-level southwestern jet and five monsoon rainfall centers. The simulated climate variability was further examined in terms of teleconnections, leading modes of global SST (namely, ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO), and changes in 19th--20th century climate. The analysis demonstrates that FGOALS-s2 realistically simulates extra-tropical teleconnection patterns of large-scale climate, and irregular ENSO periods. The model gives fairly reasonable reconstructions of spatial patterns of PDO and global monsoon changes in the 20th century. However, because the indirect effects of aerosols are not included in the model, the simulated global temperature change during the period 1850--2005 is greater than the observed warming, by 0.6oC. Some other shortcomings of the model are also noted.
2013, 30(3): 577-592. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2186-0
Abstract:
Climate drift in preindustrial control (PICTL) simulations can lead to spurious climate trends and large uncertainties in historical and future climate simulations in coupled models. This study examined the long-term behaviors and stabilities of the PICTL simulations in the two versions of FGOALS2 (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model Version 2), which have been submitted to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). As verified by examining time series of thermal fields and their linear trends, the PICTL simulations showed stable long-term integration behaviors and no obvious climate drift [the magnitudes of linear trends of SST were both less than 0.04oC (100 yr)-1] over multiple centuries. The changed SSTs in a century (that corresponded to the linear trends) were less than the standard deviations of annual mean values, which implied the internal variability was not affected. These trend values were less than 10% of those of global averaged SST from observations and historical runs during the periods of slow and rapid warming. Such stable long-term integration behaviors reduced the uncertainty of the estimation of global warming rates in the historical and future climate projections in the two versions of FGOALS2. Compared with the trends in the Northern Hemisphere, larger trends existed in the SST and sea ice extents at the middle to high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH). To estimate the historical and future climate trends in the SH or at some specific regions in FGOALS2, corrections needed to be carried out. The similar long-term behaviors in the two versions of FGOALS2 may be attributed to proper physical processes in the ocean model.
2013, 30(3): 593-606. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2154-0
Abstract:
The simulation characteristics of the seasonal evolution of subtropical anticyclones in the Northern Hemisphere are documented for the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2), developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. An understanding of the seasonal evolution of the subtropical anticyclones is also addressed. Compared with the global analysis established by the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts, the ERA-40 global reanalysis data, the general features of subtropical anticyclones and their evolution are simulated well in both winter and summer, while in spring a pronounced bias in the generation of the South Asia Anticyclone(SAA) exists. Its main deviation in geopotential height from the reanalysis is consistent with the bias of temperature in the troposphere. It is found that condensation heating (CO) plays a dominant role in the seasonal development of the SAA and the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific (SAWP) in the middle troposphere. The CO biases in the model account for the biases in the establishment of the SAA in spring and the weaker strength of the SAA and the SAWP from spring to summer. CO is persistently overestimated in the central-east tropical Pacific from winter to summer, while it is underestimated over the area from the South China Sea to the western Pacific from spring to summer. Such biases generate an illusive anticyclonic gyre in the upper troposphere above the middle Pacific and delay the generation of the SAA over South Asia in April. In mid-summer, the simulated SAA is located farther north than in the ERA-40 data owing to excessively strong surface sensible heating (SE) to the north of the Tibetan Plateau. Whereas, the two surface subtropical anticyclones in the eastern oceans during spring to summer are controlled mainly by the surface SE over the two continents in the Northern Hemisphere, which are simulated reasonably well, albeit with their centers shifted westwards owing to the weaker longwave radiation cooling in the simulation associated with much weaker local stratiform cloud. Further improvements in the related parameterization of physical processes are therefore identified.
2013, 30(3): 607-620. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2156-6
Abstract:
The capability of the current version of the air-sea coupled climate model, the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2), in simulating the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the south Asian monsoon (SAM) region is diagnosed, in terms of dominant period, propagation direction, and vertical structure. Results show that the coupled model can reasonably simulate the main features of observed ISO propagation compared to the chosen AGCM. These features include the eastward movement of intraseasonal 850-hPa zonal wind over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, the vertical structure in active phases, and the realistic phase relationship between ISO and underlying SST. However, the eastward propagation cannot be reproduced in the uncoupled model. This suggests that air-sea interaction is important in generating intraseasonal variability over the SAM region. Nevertheless, some deficiencies remain in the coupled model, which may relate to physical processes depicted by the cumulus parameterization and PBL schemes within its atmospheric component.
2013, 30(3): 621-637. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2184-2
Abstract:
The seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the tropical oceans simulated by three versions of the Flexible Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model (FGOALS-g1.0, FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2), which have participated in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), are presented in this paper. The seasonal cycle of SST in the tropical Pacific is realistically reproduced by FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2, while it is poorly simulated in FGOALS-g1.0. Three feedback mechanisms responsible for the SST annual cycle in the eastern Pacific are evaluated. The ocean-atmosphere dynamic feedback, which is successfully reproduced by both FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2, plays a key role in determining the SST annual cycle, while the overestimated stratus cloud-SST feedback amplifies the annual cycle in FGOALS-s2. Because of the serious warm bias existing in FGOALS-g1.0, the ocean-atmosphere dynamic feedback is greatly underestimated in FGOALS-g1.0, in which the SST annual cycle is mainly driven by surface solar radiation. FGOALS-g1.0 simulates much stronger ENSO events than observed, whereas FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2 successfully simulate the observed ENSO amplitude and period and positive asymmetry, but with less strength. Further ENSO feedback analyses suggest that surface solar radiation feedback is principally responsible for the overestimated ENSO amplitude in FGOALS-g1.0. Both FGOALS-g1.0 and FGOALS-s2 can simulate two different types of El Ni?o events with maximum SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific (EP) or in the central Pacific (CP) but FGOALS-g2 is only able to simulate EP El Ni?o, because the negative cloud shortwave forcing feedback by FGOALS-g2 is much stronger than observed in the central Pacific.
2013, 30(3): 638-657. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2205-1
Abstract:
In order to assess the performance of two versions of the IAP/LASG Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model, simulated changes in surface air temperature (SAT), from natural and anthropogenic forcings, were compared to observations for the period 18502005 at global, hemispheric, continental and regional scales. The global and hemispheric averages of SAT and their land and ocean components during 18502005 were well reproduced by FGOALS-g2, as evidenced by significant correlation coefficients and small RMSEs. The significant positive correlations were firstly determined by the warming trends, and secondly by interdecadal fluctuations. The abilities of the models to reproduce interdecadal SAT variations were demonstrated by both wavelet analysis and significant positive correlations for detrended data. The observed land--sea thermal contrast change was poorly simulated. The major weakness of FGOALS-s2 was an exaggerated warming response to anthropogenic forcing, with the simulation showing results that were far removed from observations prior to the 1950s. The observations featured warming trends (19062005) of 0.71, 0.68 and 0.79 (100 yr)-1 for global, Northern and Southern Hemispheric averages, which were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 [1.42, 1.52 and 1.13oC (100 yr)-1] but underestimated by FGOALS-g2 [0.69, 0.68 and 0.73oC (100 yr)-1]. The polar amplification of the warming trend was exaggerated in FGOALS-s2 but weakly reproduced in FGOALS-g2. The stronger response of FGOALS-s2 to anthropogenic forcing was caused by strong sea-ice albedo feedback and water vapor feedback. Examination of model results in 15 selected subcontinental-scale regions showed reasonable performance for FGOALS-g2 over most regions. However, the observed warming trends were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 in most regions. Over East Asia, the meridional gradient of the warming trend simulated by FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) was stronger (weaker) than observed.
2013, 30(3): 658-673. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2158-4
Abstract:
Sea ice is an important component in the Earth's climate system. Coupled climate system models are indispensable tools for the study of sea ice, its internal processes, interaction with other components, and projection of future changes. This paper evaluates the simulation of sea ice by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), with a focus on historical experiments and late 20th century simulation. Through analysis, we find that FGOALS-g2 produces reasonable Arctic and Antarctic sea ice climatology and variability. Sea ice spatial distribution and seasonal change characteristics are well captured. The decrease of Arctic sea ice extent in the late 20th century is reproduced in simulations, although the decrease trend is lower compared with observations. Simulated Antarctic sea ice shows a reasonable distribution and seasonal cycle with high accordance to the amplitude of winter--summer changes. Large improvement is achieved as compared with FGOALS-g1.0 in CMIP3. Diagnosis of atmospheric and oceanic forcing on sea ice reveals several shortcomings and major aspects to improve upon in the future: (1) ocean model improvements to remove the artificial island at the North Pole; (2) higher resolution of the atmosphere model for better simulation of important features such as, among others, the Icelandic Low and westerly wind over the Southern Ocean; and (3) ocean model improvements to accurately receive freshwater input from land, and higher resolution for resolving major water channels in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
2013, 30(3): 674-683. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2084-x
Abstract:
The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) for decadal predictions, is evaluated preliminarily, based on sets of ensemble 10-year hindcasts that it has produced. The results show that the hindcasts were more accurate in decadal variability of SST and surface air temperature (SAT), particularly in that of Nino3.4 SST and China regional SAT, than the second sample of the historical runs for 20th-century climate (the control) by the same model. Both the control and the hindcasts represented the global warming well using the same external forcings, but the control overestimated the warming. The hindcasts produced the warming closer to the observations. Performance of FGOALS-g2 in hindcasts benefits from more realistic initial conditions provided by the initialization run and a smaller model bias resulting from the use of a dynamic bias correction scheme newly developed in this study. The initialization consists of a 61-year nudging-based assimilation cycle, which follows on the control run on 01 January 1945 with the incorporation of observation data of upper-ocean temperature and salinity at each integration step in the ocean component model, the LASG IAP Climate System Ocean Model, Version 2 (LICOM2). The dynamic bias correction is implemented at each step of LICOM2 during the hindcasts to reduce the systematic biases existing in upper-ocean temperature and salinity by incorporating multi-year monthly mean increments produced in the assimilation cycle. The effectiveness of the assimilation cycle and the role of the correction scheme were assessed prior to the hindcasts.
2013, 30(3): 684-698. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2177-6
Abstract:
Paleoclimate simulations of the mid-Holocene (MH) and Last Glacial maximum (LGM) by the latest versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 and Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-s2 and g2) are evaluated in this study. The MH is characterized by changes of insolation induced by orbital parameters, and the LGM is a glacial period with large changes in greenhouse gases, sea level and ice sheets. For the MH, both versions of FGOALS simulate reasonable responses to the changes of insolation, such as the enhanced summer monsoon in African-Asian regions. Model differences can be identified at regional and seasonal scales. The global annual mean surface air temperature (TAS) shows no significant change in FGOALS-s2, while FGOALS-g2 shows a global cooling of about 0.7oC that is related with a strong cooling during boreal winter. The amplitude of ENSO is weaker in FGOALS-g2, which agrees with proxy data. For the LGM, FGOALS-g2 captures the features of the cold and dry glacial climate, including a global cooling of 4.6oC and a decrease in precipitation by 10%. The ENSO is weaker at the LGM, with a tendency of stronger ENSO cold events. Sensitivity analysis shows that the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) estimated for FGOALS ranges between 4.23oC and 4.59oC. The sensitivity of precipitation to the changes of TAS is ～2.3% oC-1, which agrees with previous studies. FGOALS-g2 shows better simulations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and African summer monsoon precipitation in the MH when compared with FGOALS-g1.0; however, it is hard to conclude any improvements for the LGM.
2013, 30(3): 699-712. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2178-0
Abstract:
A reasonable past millennial climate simulation relies heavily on the specified external forcings, including both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. In this paper, we examine the surface temperature responses to specified external forcing agents in a millennium-scale transient climate simulation with the fast version of LASG IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS-gl) developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP). The model presents a reasonable performance in comparison with reconstructions of surface temperature. Differentiated from significant changes in the 20th century at the global scale, changes during the natural-forcing-dominant period are mainly manifested in the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonally, modeled significant changes are more pronounced during the wintertime at higher latitudes. This may be a manifestation of polar amplification associated with sea-ice--temperature positive feedback. The climate responses to total external forcings can explain about half of the climate variance during the whole millennium period, especially at decadal timescales. Surface temperature in the Antarctic shows heterogeneous and insignificant changes during the preindustrial period and the climate response to external forcings is undetectable due to the strong internal variability. The model response to specified external forcings is modulated by cloud radiative forcing (CRF). The CRF acts against the fluctuations of external forcings. Effects of clouds are manifested in shortwave radiation by changes in cloud water during the natural-forcing-dominant period, but mainly in longwave radiation by a decrease in cloud amount in the anthropogenic-forcing-dominant period.
2013, 30(3): 713-725. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2103-6
Abstract:
The relationships between ENSO and the East Asian--western North Pacific monsoon simulated by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2), a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model (CGCM), are evaluated. For El Nino developing summers, FGOALS-s2 reproduces the anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) and associated negative precipitation anomalies in situ. In the observation, the anomalous cyclone is transformed to an anomalous anticyclone over the WNP (WNPAC) during El Nino mature winters. The model reproduces the WNPAC and associated positive precipitation anomalies over southeastern China during winter. However, the model fails to simulate the asymmetry of the wintertime circulation anomalies over the WNP between El Nino and La Nina. The simulated anomalous cyclone over the WNP (WNPC) associated with La Nina is generally symmetric about the WNPAC associated with El Nino, rather than shifted westward as that in the observation. The discrepancy can partially explain why simulated La Nina events decay much faster than observed. In the observation, the WNPAC maintains throughout the El Nino decaying summer under the combined effects of local forcing of the WNP cold sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and remote forcing from basin-wide warming in the tropical Indian Ocean. FGOALS-s2 captures the two mechanisms and reproduces the WNPAC throughout the summer. However, owing to biases in the mean state, the precipitation anomalies over East Asia, especially those of the Meiyu rain belt, are much weaker than that in the observation.
2013, 30(3): 726-738. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2148-y
Abstract:
The summer mean water vapor transport (WVT) and cross-equatorial flow (CEF) over the Asian-Australian monsoon region simulated by 22 coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were evaluated. Based on climatology of the twentieth-century simulations, most of models have a reasonably realistic representation of summer monsoon WVT characterized by southeast water vapor conveyor belt over the South Indian Ocean and southwest belt from the Arabian Sea to the East Asian. The correlation coefficients between NCEP reanalysis and simulations of BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, FGOALS-s2, MIROC4h and MPI-ESM-LR are up to 0.8. The simulated CEF depicted by the meridional wind along the equator includes the Somali jet and eastern CEF in low atmosphere and the reverse circulation in upper atmosphere, which were generally consistent with NCEP reanalysis. Multi-model ensemble means (MME) can reproduce more reasonable climatological features in spatial distribution both of WVT and CEF. Ten models with more reasonable WVT simulations were selected for future projection studies, including BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, FGOALS-s2, FIO-ESM, GFDL-ESM2G, MRIOC5, MPI-ESM-LR and NorESM-1M. Analysis based on the future projection experiments in RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5 show that the global warming forced by different RCP scenarios will results in enhanced WVT over the Indian area and the west Pacific and weaken WVT in the low latitudes of tropical Indian Ocean.
2013, 30(3): 739-753. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2212-7
Abstract:
Upper-level jet streams over East Asia simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled climate system model FGOALS-s2 were assessed, and the mean state bias explained in terms of synoptic-scale transient eddy activity (STEA). The results showed that the spatial distribution of the seasonal mean jet stream was reproduced well by the model, except that following a weaker meridional temperature gradient (MTG), the intensity of the jet stream was weaker than in National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project II reanalysis data (NCEP2). Based on daily mean data, the jet core number was counted to identify the geographical border between the East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ) and the East Asian Polar-front Jet (EAPJ). The border is located over the Tibetan Plateau according to NCEP2 data, but was not evident in FGOALS-s2 simulations. The seasonal cycles of the jet streams were found to be reasonably reproduced, except that they shifted northward relative to reanalysis data in boreal summer owing to the northward shift of negative MTGs. To identify the reasons for mean state bias, the dynamical and thermal forcings of STEA on mean flow were examined with a focus on boreal winter. The dynamical and thermal forcings were estimated by extended Eliassen-Palm flux (E) and transient heat flux, respectively. The results showed that the failure to reproduce the tripolar-pattern of the divergence of E over the jet regions led to an unsuccessful separation of the EASJ and EAPJ, while dynamical forcing contributed less to the weaker EASJ. In contrast, the weaker transient heat flux partly explained the weaker EASJ over the ocean.
2013, 30(3): 754-765. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2167-8
Abstract:
The major features of the westerly jets in boreal winter, consisting of the Middle East jet stream (MEJS), East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and North Atlantic jet stream (NAJS), simulated by a newly developed climate system model, were evaluated with an emphasis on the meridional location of the westerly jet axis (WJA). The model was found to exhibit fairly good performance in simulating the EAJS and NAJS, whereas the MEJS was much weaker and indistinguishable in the model. Compared with the intensity bias, the southward shift of the WJA seems to be a more remarkable deficiency. From the perspective of Ertel potential vorticity, the profiles along different westerly jet cores in the model were similar with those in the reanalysis but all shifted southward, indicating an equatorward displacement of the dynamic tropopause and associated climatology. Diagnosis of the thermodynamic equation revealed that the model produced an overall stronger heating source and the streamfunction quantifying the convection and overturning Hadley circulation shifted southward significantly in the middle and upper troposphere. The two maximum centers of eddy kinetic energy, corresponding to the EAJS and NAJS, were reproduced, whereas they all shifted southwards with a much reduced intensity. A lack of transient eddy activity will reduce the efficiency of poleward heat transport, which may partially contribute to the meridionally non-uniform cooling in the middle and upper troposphere. As the WJA is closely related to the location of the Hadley cell, tropopause and transient eddy activity, the accurate simulation of westerly jets will greatly improve the atmospheric general circulation and associated climatology in the model.
2013, 30(3): 766-778. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2130-8
Abstract:
Precipitation and surface temperature are two important quantities whose variations are closely related through various physical processes. In the present study, we evaluated the precipitation--surface temperature (P--T) relationship in 17 climate models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the IPCC Assessment Report version 5. Most models performed reasonably well at simulating the large-scale features of the P--T correlation distribution. Based on the pattern correlation of the P--T correlation distribution, the models performed better in November-December-January-February-March (NDJFM) than in May-June-July-August-September (MJJAS) except for the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, and the performance was generally better over the land than over the ocean. Seasonal dependence was more obvious over the land than over the ocean and was more obvious over the mid- and high-latitudes than over the tropics. All of the models appear to have had difficulty capturing the P--T correlation distribution over the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in MJJAS. The spatial variability of the P--T correlation in the models was overestimated compared to observations. This overestimation tended to be larger over the land than over the ocean and larger over the mid- and high-latitudes than over the tropics. Based on analyses of selected model ensemble simulations, the spread of the P--T correlation among the ensemble members appears to have been small. While the performance in the P--T correlation provides a general direction for future improvement of climate models, the specific reasons for the discrepancies between models and observations remain to be revealed with detailed and comprehensive evaluations in various aspects.
2013, 30(3): 779-789. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2152-x
Abstract:
A new static microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4 weighting function is obtained from using Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical multimodel simulations as inputs into the fast Radiative Transfer Model for TOVS (RTTOV v10). For the same CMIP5 model simulations, it is demonstrated that the computed MSU channel 4 brightness temperature (T4) trends in the lower stratosphere over both the globe and the tropics using the proposed weighting function are equivalent to those calculated by RTTOV, but show more cooling than those computed using the traditional UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville) or RSS (Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa, California) static weighting functions. The new static weighting function not only reduces the computational cost, but also reveals reasons why trends using a radiative transfer model are different from those using a traditional static weighting function. This study also shows that CMIP5 model simulated T4 trends using the traditional UAH or RSS static weighting functions show less cooling than satellite observations over the globe and the tropics. Although not completely removed, this difference can be reduced using the proposed weighting function to some extent, especially over the tropics. This work aims to explore the reasons for the trend differences and to see to what extent they are related to the inaccurate weighting functions. This would also help distinguish other sources for trend errors and thus better understand the climate change in the lower stratosphere.
2013, 30(3): 790-795. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2187-4
[Abstract](314) [PDF 378KB](2317)
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2013, 30(3): 796-805. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2151-3
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The multi-model ensemble (MME) of 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) was used to analyze surface climate change in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway RCP2.6, to reflect emission mitigation efforts. The maximum increase of surface air temperature (SAT) is 1.86oC relative to the pre-industrial level, achieving the target to limit the global warming to 2oC. Associated with the increase-peak-decline greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration pathway of RCP2.6, the global mean SAT of MME shows opposite trends during two time periods: warming during 200655 and cooling during 20562100. Our results indicate that spatial distribution of the linear trend of SAT during the warming period exhibited asymmetrical features compared to that during the cooling period. The warming during 200655 is distributed globally, while the cooling during 20562100 mainly occurred in the NH, the South Indian Ocean, and the tropical South Atlantic Ocean. Different dominant roles of heat flux in the two time periods partly explain the asymmetry. During the warming period, the latent heat flux and shortwave radiation both play major roles in heating the surface air. During the cooling period, the increase of net longwave radiation partly explains the cooling in the tropics and subtropics, which is associated with the decrease of total cloud amount. The decrease of the shortwave radiation accounts for the prominent cooling in the high latitudes of the NH. The surface sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and shortwave radiation collectively contribute to the especial warming phenomenon in the high-latitude of the SH during the cooling period.
2013, 30(3): 806-818. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2209-x
Abstract:
Multi-decadal high resolution simulations over the CORDEX East Asia domain were performed with the regional climate model RegCM3 nested within the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2). Two sets of simulations were conducted at the resolution of 50 km, one for present day (1980--2005) and another for near-future climate (2015--40) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Results show that RegCM3 adds value with respect to FGOALS-g2 in simulating the spatial patterns of summer total and extreme precipitation over China for present day climate. The major deficiency is that RegCM3 underestimates both total and extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River valley. The potential changes in total and extreme precipitation over China in summer under the RCP8.5 scenario were analyzed. Both RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2 results show that total and extreme precipitation tend to increase over northeastern China and the Tibetan Plateau, but tend to decrease over southeastern China. In both RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2, the change in extreme precipitation is weaker than that for total precipitation. RegCM3 projects much stronger amplitude of total and extreme precipitation changes and provides more regional-scale features than FGOALS-g2. A large uncertainty is found over the Yangtze River valley, where RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2 project opposite signs in terms of precipitation changes. The projected change of vertically integrated water vapor flux convergence generally follows the changes in total and extreme precipitation in both RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2, while the amplitude of change is stronger in RegCM3. Results suggest that the spatial pattern of projected precipitation changes may be more affected by the changes in water vapor flux convergence, rather than moisture content itself.
2013, 30(3): 819-840. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2137-1
Abstract:
The present study examines simulated oceanic climatology in the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) forced by historical external forcing data. The oceanic temperatures and circulations in FGOALS-g2 were found to be comparable to those observed, and substantially improved compared to those simulated by the previous version, FGOALS-g1.0. Compared with simulations by FGOALS-g1.0, the shallow mixed layer depths were better captured in the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Ocean in FGOALS-g2. In the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the cold biases of SST were about 1oC5oC smaller in FGOALS-g2. The associated sea ice distributions and their seasonal cycles were more realistic in FGOALS-g2. The pattern of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was better simulated in FGOALS-g2, although its magnitude was larger than that found in observed data. The simulated Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport was about 140 Sv through the Drake Passage, which is close to that observed. Moreover, Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) was better captured in FGOALS-g2. However, large SST cold biases (3oC) were still found to exist around major western boundary currents and in the Barents Sea, which can be explained by excessively strong oceanic cold advection and unresolved processes owing to the coarse resolution. In the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the cold biases were partly related to the excessive loss of heat from the ocean. Along the eastern coast in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the warm biases were due to overestimation of shortwave radiation. In the Indian Ocean and Southern Ocean, the surface fresh biases were mainly due to the biases of precipitation. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the surface fresh biases (2 psu) were mainly caused by excessive precipitation and oceanic advection. In the Indo-Pacific Ocean, fresh biases were also found to dominate in the upper 1000 m, except in the northeastern Indian Ocean. There were warm and salty biases (3oC4oC and 12 psu) from the surface to the bottom in the Labrador Sea, which might be due to large amounts of heat transport and excessive evaporation, respectively. For vertical structures, the maximal biases of temperature and salinity were found to be located at depths of 600 m in the Arctic Ocean, and their values exceeded 4oC and 2 psu, respectively.
2013, 30(3): 841-854. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2224-3
Abstract:
To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, the results of two versions of LASG/IAP's Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS) are analyzed. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features, with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation. Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCP8.5 scenario projections are investigated. The results show that, in the 20th century, negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean. The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century. By the year 2100, the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS (FGOALS-s2) and the second grid-point version of FGOALS (FGOALS-g2), respectively. The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated. In the 20th century, the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) are largely attributed to the thermosteric (halosteric) component relative to the pre-industrial control run. In contrast, in the 21st century, the thermosteric component, mainly from the upper 1000 m, dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.
2013, 30(3): 855-867. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2157-5
Abstract:
The Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG version 2 (GAMIL2) has been developed through upgrading the deep convection parameterization, cumulus cloud fraction and two-moment cloud microphysical scheme, as well as changing some of the large uncertain parameters. In this paper, its performance is evaluated, and the results suggest that there are some significant improvements in GAMIL2 compared to the previous version GAMIL1, for example, the components of the energy budget at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface; the geographic distribution of shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF); the ratio of stratiform versus total rainfall; the response of atmospheric circulation to the tropical ocean; and the eastward propagation and spatiotemporal structures of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Furthermore, the indirect aerosols effect (IAE) is -0.94 W m-2, within the range of 0 to -2 W m-2 given by the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007). The influence of uncertain parameters on the MJO and radiation fluxes is also discussed.
2013, 30(3): 868-883. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2072-1
Abstract:
A two-moment bulk stratiform microphysics scheme, including recently developed physically-based droplet activation/ice nucleation parameterizations has been implemented into the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL) as an effort to enhance the model's capability to simulate aerosol indirect effects. Unlike the previous one-moment cloud microphysics scheme, the new scheme produces a reasonable representation of cloud particle size and number concentration. This scheme captures the observed spatial variations in cloud droplet number concentrations. Simulated ice crystal number concentrations in cirrus clouds qualitatively agree with in situ observations. The longwave and shortwave cloud forcings are in better agreement with observations. Sensitivity tests show that the column cloud droplet number concentrations calculated from two different droplet activation parameterizations are similar. However, ice crystal number concentration in mixed-phased clouds is sensitive to different heterogeneous ice nucleation formulations. The simulation with high ice crystal number concentration in mixed-phase clouds has less liquid water path and weaker cloud forcing. Furthermore, ice crystal number concentration in cirrus clouds is sensitive to different ice nucleation parameterizations. Sensitivity tests also suggest that the impact of pre-existing ice crystals on homogeneous freezing in old clouds should be taken into account.
2013, 30(3): 884-907. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2153-9
Abstract:
Cloud and its radiative effects are major sources of uncertainty that lead to simulation discrepancies in climate models. In this study, shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF) over major stratus regions is evaluated for Atmospheric Models Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations of models involved in the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Over stratus regions, large deviations in both climatological mean and seasonal cycle of SWCF are found among the models. An ambient field sorted by dynamic (vertical motion) and thermodynamic (inversion strength or stability) regimes is constructed and used to measure the response of SWCF to large-scale controls. In marine boundary layer regions, despite both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models being able to capture well the center and range of occurrence frequency for the ambient field, most of the models fail to simulate the dependence of SWCF on boundary layer inversion and the insensitivity of SWCF to vertical motion. For eastern China, there are large differences even in the simulated ambient fields. Moreover, almost no model can reproduce intense SWCF in rising motion and high stability regimes. It is also found that models with a finer grid resolution have no evident superiority than their lower resolution versions. The uncertainties relating to SWCF in state-of-the-art models may limit their performance in IPCC experiments.
2013, 30(3): 908-921. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2145-1
Abstract:
In this study, two modes of the Silk Road pattern were investigated using NCEP2 reanalysis data and the simulation produced by Spectral Atmospheric Circulation Model of IAP LASG, Version 2 (SAMIL2.0) that was forced by SST observation data. The horizontal distribution of both modes were reasonably reproduced by the simulation, with a pattern correlation coefficient of 0.63 for the first mode and 0.62 for the second mode. The wave train was maintained by barotropic energy conversion (denoted as CK) and baroclinic energy conversion (denoted as CP) from the mean flow. The distribution of CK was dominated by its meridional component (CKy) in both modes. When integrated spatially, CKy was more efficient than its zonal component (CKx) in the first mode but less in the second mode. The distribution and efficiency of CK were not captured well by SAMIL2.0. However, the model performed reasonably well at reproducing the distribution and efficiency of CP in both modes. Because CP is more efficient than CK, the spatial patterns of the Silk Road pattern were well reproduced. Interestingly, the temporal phase of the second mode was well captured by a single-member simulation. However, further analysis of other ensemble runs demonstrated that the successful reproduction of the temporal phase was a result of internal variability rather than a signal of SST forcing. The analysis shows that the observed temporal variations of both CP and CK were poorly reproduced, leading to the low accuracy of the temporal phase of the Silk Road pattern in the simulation.
2013, 30(3): 922-939. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2162-0
Abstract:
An ocean biogeochemistry model was developed and incorporated into a global ocean general circulation model (LICOM) to form an ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model (OBGCM). The model was used to study the natural carbon cycle and the uptake and storage of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean. A global export production of 12.5 Pg C yr-1 was obtained. The model estimated that in the pre-industrial era the global equatorial region within 15o of the equator released 0.97 Pg C yr-1 to the atmosphere, which was balanced by the gain of CO2 in other regions. The post-industrial air-sea CO2 flux indicated the oceanic uptake of CO2 emitted by human activities. An increase of 20－50 mol kg-1 for surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations in the 1990s relative to pre-industrial times was obtained in the simulation, which was consistent with data-based estimates. The model generated a total anthropogenic carbon inventory of 105 Pg C as of 1994, which was within the range of estimates by other researchers. Various transports of both natural and anthropogenic DIC as well as labile dissolved organic carbon (LDOC) were estimated from the simulation. It was realized that the Southern Ocean and the high-latitude region of the North Pacific are important export regions where accumulative air-sea CO2 fluxes are larger than the DIC inventory, whereas the subtropical regions are acceptance regions. The interhemispheric transport of total natural carbon (DIC+LDOC) was found to be northward (0.11 Pg C yr-1), which was just balanced by the gain of carbon from the atmosphere in the Southern Hemisphere.
2013, 30(3): 940-953. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2161-1
Abstract:
Theoretical and empirical studies have suggested that an underestimate of the ENSO asymmetry may be accompanied by a climatologically smaller and warmer western Pacific warm pool. In light of this suggestion, simulations of the tropical Pacific climate by 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) climate models that do not use flux adjustment were evaluated. Our evaluation revealed systematic biases in both the mean state and ENSO statistics. The mean state in most of the models had a smaller and warmer warm pool. This common bias in the mean state was accompanied by a common bias in the simulated ENSO statistics: a significantly weak asymmetry between the two phases of ENSO. Moreover, despite the generally weak ENSO asymmetry simulated by all models, a positive correlation between the magnitude of the bias in the simulated warm-pool size and the magnitude of the bias in the simulated ENSO asymmetry was found. These findings support the suggested link between ENSO asymmetry and the tropical mean state---the climatological size and temperature of the warm pool in particular. Together with previous studies, these findings light up a path to improve the simulation of the tropical Pacific mean state by climate models: enhancing the asymmetry of ENSO in the climate models.