2015 Vol. 32, No. 6
Display Method:
2015, 32(6): 731-742.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4080-9
Abstract:
Based on Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) and NCEP reanalysis data, atmospheric and oceanic processes possibly responsible for the onset of the 2011/12 La Niña event, which followed the 2010/11 La Niña even——referred to as a "double dip" La Niña——are investigated. The key mechanisms involved in activating the 2011/12 La Niña are illustrated by these datasets. Results show that neutral conditions were already evident in the equatorial eastern Pacific during the decaying phase of the 2010/11 La Niña. However, isothermal analyses show obviously cold water still persisting at the surface and at subsurface depths in off-equatorial regions throughout early 2011, being most pronounced in the tropical South Pacific. The negative SST anomalies in the tropical South Pacific acted to strengthen a southern wind across the equator. The subsurface cold water in the tropical South Pacific then spread northward and broke into the equatorial region at the thermocline depth. This incursion process of off-equatorial subsurface cold water successfully interrupted the eastern propagation of warm water along the equator, which had previously accumulated at subsurface depths in the warm pool during the 2010/11 La Niña event. Furthermore, the incursion process strengthened as a result of the off-equatorial effects, mostly in the tropical South Pacific. The negative SST anomalies then reappeared in the central basin in summer 2011, and acted to trigger local coupled air-sea interactions to produce atmospheric-oceanic anomalies that developed and evolved with the second cooling in the fall of 2011.
Based on Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) and NCEP reanalysis data, atmospheric and oceanic processes possibly responsible for the onset of the 2011/12 La Niña event, which followed the 2010/11 La Niña even——referred to as a "double dip" La Niña——are investigated. The key mechanisms involved in activating the 2011/12 La Niña are illustrated by these datasets. Results show that neutral conditions were already evident in the equatorial eastern Pacific during the decaying phase of the 2010/11 La Niña. However, isothermal analyses show obviously cold water still persisting at the surface and at subsurface depths in off-equatorial regions throughout early 2011, being most pronounced in the tropical South Pacific. The negative SST anomalies in the tropical South Pacific acted to strengthen a southern wind across the equator. The subsurface cold water in the tropical South Pacific then spread northward and broke into the equatorial region at the thermocline depth. This incursion process of off-equatorial subsurface cold water successfully interrupted the eastern propagation of warm water along the equator, which had previously accumulated at subsurface depths in the warm pool during the 2010/11 La Niña event. Furthermore, the incursion process strengthened as a result of the off-equatorial effects, mostly in the tropical South Pacific. The negative SST anomalies then reappeared in the central basin in summer 2011, and acted to trigger local coupled air-sea interactions to produce atmospheric-oceanic anomalies that developed and evolved with the second cooling in the fall of 2011.
2015, 32(6): 743-758.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4098-z
Abstract:
Aerosol optical properties are simulated using the Spectral Radiation Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS) coupled with the Non-hydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). The 3-year global mean all-sky aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 550 nm, the Ångström Exponent (AE) based on AOTs at 440 and 870 nm, and the single scattering albedo (SSA) at 550 nm are estimated at 0.123, 0.657 and 0.944, respectively. For each aerosol species, the mean AOT is within the range of the AeroCom models. Both the modeled all-sky and clear-sky results are compared with observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The simulated spatiotemporal distributions of all-sky AOTs can generally reproduce the MODIS retrievals, and the correlation and model skill can be slightly improved using the clear-sky results over most land regions. The differences between clear-sky and all-sky AOTs are larger over polluted regions. Compared with observations from AERONET, the modeled and observed all-sky AOTs and AEs are generally in reasonable agreement, whereas the SSA variation is not well captured. Although the spatiotemporal distributions of all-sky and clear-sky results are similar, the clear-sky results are generally better correlated with the observations. The clear-sky AOT and SSA are generally lower than the all-sky results, especially in those regions where the aerosol chemical composition is contributed to mostly by sulfate aerosol. The modeled clear-sky AE is larger than the all-sky AE over those regions dominated by hydrophilic aerosol, while the opposite is found over regions dominated by hydrophobic aerosol.
Aerosol optical properties are simulated using the Spectral Radiation Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS) coupled with the Non-hydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). The 3-year global mean all-sky aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 550 nm, the Ångström Exponent (AE) based on AOTs at 440 and 870 nm, and the single scattering albedo (SSA) at 550 nm are estimated at 0.123, 0.657 and 0.944, respectively. For each aerosol species, the mean AOT is within the range of the AeroCom models. Both the modeled all-sky and clear-sky results are compared with observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The simulated spatiotemporal distributions of all-sky AOTs can generally reproduce the MODIS retrievals, and the correlation and model skill can be slightly improved using the clear-sky results over most land regions. The differences between clear-sky and all-sky AOTs are larger over polluted regions. Compared with observations from AERONET, the modeled and observed all-sky AOTs and AEs are generally in reasonable agreement, whereas the SSA variation is not well captured. Although the spatiotemporal distributions of all-sky and clear-sky results are similar, the clear-sky results are generally better correlated with the observations. The clear-sky AOT and SSA are generally lower than the all-sky results, especially in those regions where the aerosol chemical composition is contributed to mostly by sulfate aerosol. The modeled clear-sky AE is larger than the all-sky AE over those regions dominated by hydrophilic aerosol, while the opposite is found over regions dominated by hydrophobic aerosol.
2015, 32(6): 759-771.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4131-2
Abstract:
The complexity of inhomogeneous surface-atmosphere radiation transfer is one of the foremost problems in the field of atmospheric physics and atmospheric radiation. To date, the influence of surface properties on shortwave radiation has not been well studied. The daily downward surface shortwave radiation of the latest FLASHFlux/CERES (Fast Longwave And Shortwave Fluxes_Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged/Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) satellite data was evaluated against in situ data. The comparison indicated that the differences between the two data sets are unstable and large over rugged terrain compared with relatively flat terrain, and the mean absolute error of the satellite products reaches 31.4 W m-2 (12.3%) over rugged terrain. Based on the SSF (single satellite footprint)/CERES product, the influence of surface properties on the distribution of downward surface shortwave radiation (DSSR) was analyzed. The influence of surface properties on DSSR over the Tibetan Plateau is about twice as large as that in two other regions located at the same latitude (eastern China-western Pacific and subtropical North Pacific). A simulation was carried out with the help of the I3RC (International Intercomparision of Three-Dimensional Radiation Code) Monte Carlo 3D radiative transfer community model. The results showed that DSSR increases as surface albedo increases. Moreover, the impact of surface albedo on DSSR is larger if the spatial distribution of clouds is more non-uniform. It is hoped that these results will contribute to the development of 3D radiative transfer models and the improvement of satellite inversion algorithms.
The complexity of inhomogeneous surface-atmosphere radiation transfer is one of the foremost problems in the field of atmospheric physics and atmospheric radiation. To date, the influence of surface properties on shortwave radiation has not been well studied. The daily downward surface shortwave radiation of the latest FLASHFlux/CERES (Fast Longwave And Shortwave Fluxes_Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged/Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) satellite data was evaluated against in situ data. The comparison indicated that the differences between the two data sets are unstable and large over rugged terrain compared with relatively flat terrain, and the mean absolute error of the satellite products reaches 31.4 W m-2 (12.3%) over rugged terrain. Based on the SSF (single satellite footprint)/CERES product, the influence of surface properties on the distribution of downward surface shortwave radiation (DSSR) was analyzed. The influence of surface properties on DSSR over the Tibetan Plateau is about twice as large as that in two other regions located at the same latitude (eastern China-western Pacific and subtropical North Pacific). A simulation was carried out with the help of the I3RC (International Intercomparision of Three-Dimensional Radiation Code) Monte Carlo 3D radiative transfer community model. The results showed that DSSR increases as surface albedo increases. Moreover, the impact of surface albedo on DSSR is larger if the spatial distribution of clouds is more non-uniform. It is hoped that these results will contribute to the development of 3D radiative transfer models and the improvement of satellite inversion algorithms.
2015, 32(6): 772-782.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4228-7
Abstract:
An observational analysis of the structures and characteristics of a windy atmospheric boundary layer during a cold air outbreak in the South China Sea region is reported in this paper. It is found that the main structures and characteristics are the same as during strong wind episodes with cold air outbreaks on land. The high frequency turbulent fluctuations (period <1 min) are nearly random and isotropic with weak coherency, but the gusty wind disturbances (1 min<period <10 min) are anisotropic with rather strong coherency. However, in the windy atmospheric boundary layer at sea, compared with that over land, there are some pronounced differences: (2) the average horizontal speed is almost independent of height, and the vertical velocity is positive in the lower marine atmospheric boundary layer; (3) the vertical flux of horizontal momentum is nearly independent of height in the low layer indicating the existence of a constant flux layer, unlike during strong wind over the land surface; (4) the kinetic energy and friction velocity of turbulent fluctuations are larger than those of gusty disturbances; (5) due to the independence of horizontal speed to height, the horizontal speed itself (not its vertical gradient used over the land surface) can be used as the key parameter to parameterize the turbulent and gusty characteristics with high accuracy.
An observational analysis of the structures and characteristics of a windy atmospheric boundary layer during a cold air outbreak in the South China Sea region is reported in this paper. It is found that the main structures and characteristics are the same as during strong wind episodes with cold air outbreaks on land. The high frequency turbulent fluctuations (period <1 min) are nearly random and isotropic with weak coherency, but the gusty wind disturbances (1 min<period <10 min) are anisotropic with rather strong coherency. However, in the windy atmospheric boundary layer at sea, compared with that over land, there are some pronounced differences: (2) the average horizontal speed is almost independent of height, and the vertical velocity is positive in the lower marine atmospheric boundary layer; (3) the vertical flux of horizontal momentum is nearly independent of height in the low layer indicating the existence of a constant flux layer, unlike during strong wind over the land surface; (4) the kinetic energy and friction velocity of turbulent fluctuations are larger than those of gusty disturbances; (5) due to the independence of horizontal speed to height, the horizontal speed itself (not its vertical gradient used over the land surface) can be used as the key parameter to parameterize the turbulent and gusty characteristics with high accuracy.
2015, 32(6): 783-793.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4141-0
Abstract:
The role of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events, negative sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling. These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Niña-like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an El Niño-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITF.
The role of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events, negative sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling. These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Niña-like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an El Niño-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITF.
2015, 32(6): 794-806.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4053-z
Abstract:
The reproducibility and future changes of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon were analyzed based on the simulations and projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario in which anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century (i.e. RCP8.5) by all realizations from four Chinese models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Delayed onset of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea was evident in all simulations for present-day climate, which was associated with a too weak simulation of the low-level Somali jet in May. A consistent advanced onset of the monsoon was found only over the Arabian Sea in the projections, where the advanced onset of the monsoon was accompanied by an increase of rainfall and an anomalous anticyclone over the northern Indian Ocean. In all the models except FGOALS-g2, the enhanced low-level Somali jet transported more water vapor to the Arabian Sea, whereas in FGOALS-g2 the enhanced rainfall was determined more by the increased wind convergence. Furthermore, and again in all models except FGOALS-g2, the equatorial SST warming, with maximum increase over the eastern Pacific, enhanced convection in the central West Pacific and reduced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent region, which drove the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western Indian Ocean. In contrast, in FGOALS-g2, there was minimal (near-zero) warming of projected SST in the central equatorial Pacific, with decreased convection in the central West Pacific and enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent. The broader-scale differences among the models across the Pacific were related to both the differences in the projected SST pattern and in the present-day simulations.
The reproducibility and future changes of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon were analyzed based on the simulations and projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario in which anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century (i.e. RCP8.5) by all realizations from four Chinese models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Delayed onset of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea was evident in all simulations for present-day climate, which was associated with a too weak simulation of the low-level Somali jet in May. A consistent advanced onset of the monsoon was found only over the Arabian Sea in the projections, where the advanced onset of the monsoon was accompanied by an increase of rainfall and an anomalous anticyclone over the northern Indian Ocean. In all the models except FGOALS-g2, the enhanced low-level Somali jet transported more water vapor to the Arabian Sea, whereas in FGOALS-g2 the enhanced rainfall was determined more by the increased wind convergence. Furthermore, and again in all models except FGOALS-g2, the equatorial SST warming, with maximum increase over the eastern Pacific, enhanced convection in the central West Pacific and reduced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent region, which drove the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western Indian Ocean. In contrast, in FGOALS-g2, there was minimal (near-zero) warming of projected SST in the central equatorial Pacific, with decreased convection in the central West Pacific and enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent. The broader-scale differences among the models across the Pacific were related to both the differences in the projected SST pattern and in the present-day simulations.
2015, 32(6): 807-820.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4164-6
Abstract:
Although the residual layer has already been noted in the classical diurnal cycle of the atmospheric boundary layer, its effect on the development of the convective boundary layer has not been well studied. In this study, based on 3-hourly 20th century reanalysis data, the residual layer is considered as a common layer capping the convective boundary layer. It is identified daily by investigating the development of the convective boundary layer. The region of interest is bounded by (30°-60°N, 80°-120°E), where a residual layer deeper than 2000 m has been reported using radiosondes. The lapse rate and wind shear within the residual layer are compared with the surface sensible heat flux by investigating their climatological means, interannual variations and daily variations. The lapse rate of the residual layer and the convective boundary layer depth correspond well in their seasonal variations and climatological mean patterns. On the interannual scale, the correlation coefficient between their regional averaged (40°-50°N, 90°-110°E) variations is higher than that between the surface sensible heat flux and convective boundary layer depth. On the daily scale, the correlation between the lapse rate and the convective boundary layer depth in most months is still statistically significant during 1970-2012. Therefore, we suggest that the existence of a deep neutral residual layer is crucial to the formation of a deep convective boundary layer near the Mongolian regions.
Although the residual layer has already been noted in the classical diurnal cycle of the atmospheric boundary layer, its effect on the development of the convective boundary layer has not been well studied. In this study, based on 3-hourly 20th century reanalysis data, the residual layer is considered as a common layer capping the convective boundary layer. It is identified daily by investigating the development of the convective boundary layer. The region of interest is bounded by (30°-60°N, 80°-120°E), where a residual layer deeper than 2000 m has been reported using radiosondes. The lapse rate and wind shear within the residual layer are compared with the surface sensible heat flux by investigating their climatological means, interannual variations and daily variations. The lapse rate of the residual layer and the convective boundary layer depth correspond well in their seasonal variations and climatological mean patterns. On the interannual scale, the correlation coefficient between their regional averaged (40°-50°N, 90°-110°E) variations is higher than that between the surface sensible heat flux and convective boundary layer depth. On the daily scale, the correlation between the lapse rate and the convective boundary layer depth in most months is still statistically significant during 1970-2012. Therefore, we suggest that the existence of a deep neutral residual layer is crucial to the formation of a deep convective boundary layer near the Mongolian regions.
2015, 32(6): 821-830.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4056-9
Abstract:
Based on combined CloudSat/CALIPSO detections, the seasonal occurrence of deep convective clouds (DCCs) over the midlatitude North Pacific (NP) and cyclonic activity in winter were compared. In winter, DCCs are more frequent over the central NP, from approximately 30°N to 45°N, than over other regions. The high frequencies are roughly equal to those occurring in this region in summer. Most of these DCCs have cloud tops above a 12 km altitude, and the highest top is approximately 15 km. These wintertime marine DCCs commonly occur during surface circulation conditions of low pressure, high temperature, strong meridional wind, and high relative humidity. Further, the maximum probability of DCCs, according to the high correlation coefficient, was found in the region 10°-20° east and 5°-10° south of the center of the cyclones. The potential relationship between DCCs and cyclones regarding their relative locations and circulation conditions was also identified by a case study. Deep clouds were generated in the warm conveyor belt by strong updrafts from baroclinic flows. The updrafts intensified when latent heat was released during the adjustment of the cyclone circulation current. This indicates that the dynamics of cyclones are the primary energy source for DCCs over the NP in winter.
Based on combined CloudSat/CALIPSO detections, the seasonal occurrence of deep convective clouds (DCCs) over the midlatitude North Pacific (NP) and cyclonic activity in winter were compared. In winter, DCCs are more frequent over the central NP, from approximately 30°N to 45°N, than over other regions. The high frequencies are roughly equal to those occurring in this region in summer. Most of these DCCs have cloud tops above a 12 km altitude, and the highest top is approximately 15 km. These wintertime marine DCCs commonly occur during surface circulation conditions of low pressure, high temperature, strong meridional wind, and high relative humidity. Further, the maximum probability of DCCs, according to the high correlation coefficient, was found in the region 10°-20° east and 5°-10° south of the center of the cyclones. The potential relationship between DCCs and cyclones regarding their relative locations and circulation conditions was also identified by a case study. Deep clouds were generated in the warm conveyor belt by strong updrafts from baroclinic flows. The updrafts intensified when latent heat was released during the adjustment of the cyclone circulation current. This indicates that the dynamics of cyclones are the primary energy source for DCCs over the NP in winter.
2015, 32(6): 831-838.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4125-0
Abstract:
It is well-known that global warming due to anthropogenic atmospheric greenhouse effects advanced the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) across the globe during the 20th century. Projections of further changes in the SOS for the 21st century under certain emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) are useful for improving understanding of the consequences of global warming. In this study, we first evaluate a linear relationship between the SOS (defined using the normalized difference vegetation index) and the April temperature for most land areas of the Northern Hemisphere for 1982-2008. Based on this relationship and the ensemble projection of April temperature under RCPs from the latest state-of-the-art global coupled climate models, we show the possible changes in the SOS for most of the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere during the 21st century. By around 2040-59, the SOS will have advanced by -4.7 days under RCP2.6, -8.4 days under RCP4.5, and -10.1 days under RCP8.5, relative to 1985-2004. By 2080-99, it will have advanced by -4.3 days under RCP2.6, -11.3 days under RCP4.5, and -21.6 days under RCP8.5. The geographic pattern of SOS advance is considerably dependent on that of the temperature sensitivity of the SOS. The larger the temperature sensitivity, the larger the date-shift-rate of the SOS.
It is well-known that global warming due to anthropogenic atmospheric greenhouse effects advanced the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) across the globe during the 20th century. Projections of further changes in the SOS for the 21st century under certain emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) are useful for improving understanding of the consequences of global warming. In this study, we first evaluate a linear relationship between the SOS (defined using the normalized difference vegetation index) and the April temperature for most land areas of the Northern Hemisphere for 1982-2008. Based on this relationship and the ensemble projection of April temperature under RCPs from the latest state-of-the-art global coupled climate models, we show the possible changes in the SOS for most of the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere during the 21st century. By around 2040-59, the SOS will have advanced by -4.7 days under RCP2.6, -8.4 days under RCP4.5, and -10.1 days under RCP8.5, relative to 1985-2004. By 2080-99, it will have advanced by -4.3 days under RCP2.6, -11.3 days under RCP4.5, and -21.6 days under RCP8.5. The geographic pattern of SOS advance is considerably dependent on that of the temperature sensitivity of the SOS. The larger the temperature sensitivity, the larger the date-shift-rate of the SOS.
2015, 32(6): 839-854.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4136-x
Abstract:
Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms of their AGCM component, but the remaining parts of the system are almost identical. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean-state features of the timings of the wet and dry seasons and related precipitation amounts, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.65-0.84 with observations. Globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are analyzed. The results show that wet seasons get wetter and the annual range (precipitation difference between wet and dry seasons) increases during the 20th century in the two models, with positive trends covering most parts of the globe, which is consistent with observations. However, both models show a moistening dry season, which is opposite to observations. Analysis of the globally averaged moisture budget in the historical climate simulations of the two models shows little change in the horizontal moisture advection in both the wet and dry seasons. The globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are mainly dominated by the changes in evaporation and vertical moisture advection. Evaporation and vertical moisture advection combine to make wet seasons wetter and enhance the annual range. In the dry season, the opposite change of evaporation and vertical moisture advection leads to an insignificant change in precipitation. Vertical moisture advection is the most important term that determines the changes in precipitation, wherein the thermodynamic component is dominant and the dynamic component tends to offset the effect of the thermodynamic component.
Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms of their AGCM component, but the remaining parts of the system are almost identical. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean-state features of the timings of the wet and dry seasons and related precipitation amounts, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.65-0.84 with observations. Globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are analyzed. The results show that wet seasons get wetter and the annual range (precipitation difference between wet and dry seasons) increases during the 20th century in the two models, with positive trends covering most parts of the globe, which is consistent with observations. However, both models show a moistening dry season, which is opposite to observations. Analysis of the globally averaged moisture budget in the historical climate simulations of the two models shows little change in the horizontal moisture advection in both the wet and dry seasons. The globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are mainly dominated by the changes in evaporation and vertical moisture advection. Evaporation and vertical moisture advection combine to make wet seasons wetter and enhance the annual range. In the dry season, the opposite change of evaporation and vertical moisture advection leads to an insignificant change in precipitation. Vertical moisture advection is the most important term that determines the changes in precipitation, wherein the thermodynamic component is dominant and the dynamic component tends to offset the effect of the thermodynamic component.
2015, 32(6): 855-869.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4075-6
Abstract:
On 21 September 2010, heavy rainfall with a local maximum of 259 mm d-1 occurred near Seoul, South Korea. We examined the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in reproducing this disastrous rainfall event and identified the role of two physical processes: planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics (MPS) processes. The WRF model was forced by 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final analysis (FNL) data for 36 hours form 1200 UTC 20 to 0000 UTC 22 September 2010. Twenty-five experiments were performed, consisting of five different PBL schemes——Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), Quasi Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE), Bougeault and Lacarrere (BouLac), and University of Washington (UW)——and five different MPS schemes——WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6), Goddard, Thompson, Milbrandt 2-moments, and Morrison 2-moments. As expected, there was a specific combination of MPS and PBL schemes that showed good skill in forecasting the precipitation. However, there was no specific PBL or MPS scheme that outperformed the others in all aspects. The experiments with the UW PBL or Thompson MPS scheme showed a relatively small amount of precipitation. Analyses form the sensitivity experiments confirmed that the spatial distribution of the simulated precipitation was dominated by the PBL processes, whereas the MPS processes determined the amount of rainfall. It was also found that the temporal evolution of the precipitation was influenced more by the PBL processes than by the MPS processes.
On 21 September 2010, heavy rainfall with a local maximum of 259 mm d-1 occurred near Seoul, South Korea. We examined the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in reproducing this disastrous rainfall event and identified the role of two physical processes: planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics (MPS) processes. The WRF model was forced by 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final analysis (FNL) data for 36 hours form 1200 UTC 20 to 0000 UTC 22 September 2010. Twenty-five experiments were performed, consisting of five different PBL schemes——Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), Quasi Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE), Bougeault and Lacarrere (BouLac), and University of Washington (UW)——and five different MPS schemes——WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6), Goddard, Thompson, Milbrandt 2-moments, and Morrison 2-moments. As expected, there was a specific combination of MPS and PBL schemes that showed good skill in forecasting the precipitation. However, there was no specific PBL or MPS scheme that outperformed the others in all aspects. The experiments with the UW PBL or Thompson MPS scheme showed a relatively small amount of precipitation. Analyses form the sensitivity experiments confirmed that the spatial distribution of the simulated precipitation was dominated by the PBL processes, whereas the MPS processes determined the amount of rainfall. It was also found that the temporal evolution of the precipitation was influenced more by the PBL processes than by the MPS processes.
2015, 32(6): 870-876.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4106-3
Abstract:
This study examines the expansion of drylands and regional climate change in northern China by analyzing the variations in aridity index (AI), surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 1948 to 2008. It is found that the drylands of northern China have expanded remarkably in the last 61 years. The area of drylands of the last 15 years (1994-2008) is 0.65 106 km2 (12%) larger than that in the period 1948-62. The boundary of drylands has extended eastward over Northeast China by about 2 of longitude and by about 1 of latitude to the south along the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yellow River. A zonal band of expansion of semi-arid regions has occurred, stretching from western Heilongjiang Province to southern Gansu Province, while shifts to the east of semi-arid regions in dry subhumid regions have also occurred. Results show that the aridity trend of drylands in northern China is highly correlated with the long-term trend of precipitation and PET, and the expansion of semi-arid regions plays a dominant role in the areal extent of drylands, which is nearly 10 times larger than that in arid and subhumid regions.
This study examines the expansion of drylands and regional climate change in northern China by analyzing the variations in aridity index (AI), surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 1948 to 2008. It is found that the drylands of northern China have expanded remarkably in the last 61 years. The area of drylands of the last 15 years (1994-2008) is 0.65 106 km2 (12%) larger than that in the period 1948-62. The boundary of drylands has extended eastward over Northeast China by about 2 of longitude and by about 1 of latitude to the south along the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yellow River. A zonal band of expansion of semi-arid regions has occurred, stretching from western Heilongjiang Province to southern Gansu Province, while shifts to the east of semi-arid regions in dry subhumid regions have also occurred. Results show that the aridity trend of drylands in northern China is highly correlated with the long-term trend of precipitation and PET, and the expansion of semi-arid regions plays a dominant role in the areal extent of drylands, which is nearly 10 times larger than that in arid and subhumid regions.
2015, 32(6): 877-888.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4153-9
Abstract:
Fine particle of organic aerosol (OA), mostly arising from pollution, are abundant in Beijing. To achieve a better understanding of the difference in OA in summer and autumn, a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS, Aerodyne Research Inc., USA) was deployed in urban Beijing in August and October 2012. The mean OA mass concentration in autumn was 3030 μg m-3, which was higher than in summer (136.9 μg m-3). The elemental analysis found that OA was more aged in summer (oxygen-to-carbon (O/C) ratios were 0.41 and 0.32 for summer and autumn, respectively). Positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis identified three and five components in summer and autumn, respectively. In summer, an oxygenated OA (OOA), a cooking-emission-related OA (COA), and a hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA) were indentified. Meanwhile, the OOA was separated into LV-OOA (low-volatility OOA) and SV-OOA (semi-volatile OOA); and in autumn, a nitrogen-containing OA (NOA) was also found. The SOA (secondary OA) was always the most important OA component, accounting for 55% of the OA in the two seasons. Back trajectory clustering analysis found that the origin of the air masses was more complex in summer. Southerly air masses in both seasons were associated with the highest OA loading, while northerly air masses were associated with the lowest OA loading. A preliminary study of OA components, especially the POA (primary OA), in different periods found that the HOA and COA all decreased during the National Day holiday period, and HOA decreased at weekends compared with weekdays.
Fine particle of organic aerosol (OA), mostly arising from pollution, are abundant in Beijing. To achieve a better understanding of the difference in OA in summer and autumn, a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS, Aerodyne Research Inc., USA) was deployed in urban Beijing in August and October 2012. The mean OA mass concentration in autumn was 3030 μg m-3, which was higher than in summer (136.9 μg m-3). The elemental analysis found that OA was more aged in summer (oxygen-to-carbon (O/C) ratios were 0.41 and 0.32 for summer and autumn, respectively). Positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis identified three and five components in summer and autumn, respectively. In summer, an oxygenated OA (OOA), a cooking-emission-related OA (COA), and a hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA) were indentified. Meanwhile, the OOA was separated into LV-OOA (low-volatility OOA) and SV-OOA (semi-volatile OOA); and in autumn, a nitrogen-containing OA (NOA) was also found. The SOA (secondary OA) was always the most important OA component, accounting for 55% of the OA in the two seasons. Back trajectory clustering analysis found that the origin of the air masses was more complex in summer. Southerly air masses in both seasons were associated with the highest OA loading, while northerly air masses were associated with the lowest OA loading. A preliminary study of OA components, especially the POA (primary OA), in different periods found that the HOA and COA all decreased during the National Day holiday period, and HOA decreased at weekends compared with weekdays.
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