2017 Vol. 34, No. 3
Display Method:
2017, 34(3): 287-305.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6160-5
Abstract:
This paper reports a comprehensive study on the observed and projected spatiotemporal changes in mean and extreme climate over the arid region of northwestern China, based on gridded observation data and CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The observational results reveal an increase in annual mean temperature since 1961, largely attributable to the increase in minimum temperature. The annual mean precipitation also exhibits a significant increasing tendency. The precipitation amount in the most recent decade was greater than in any preceding decade since 1961. Seasonally, the greatest increase in temperature and precipitation appears in winter and in summer, respectively. Widespread significant changes in temperature-related extremes are consistent with warming, with decreases in cold extremes and increases in warm extremes. The warming of the coldest night is greater than that of the warmest day, and changes in cold and warm nights are more evident than for cold and warm days. Extreme precipitation and wet days exhibit an increasing trend, and the maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a tendency toward shorter duration. Multi-model ensemble mean projections indicate an overall continual increase in temperature and precipitation during the 21st century. Decreases in cold extremes, increases in warm extremes, intensification of extreme precipitation, increases in wet days, and decreases in consecutive dry days, are expected under both emissions scenarios, with larger changes corresponding to stronger radiative forcing.
This paper reports a comprehensive study on the observed and projected spatiotemporal changes in mean and extreme climate over the arid region of northwestern China, based on gridded observation data and CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The observational results reveal an increase in annual mean temperature since 1961, largely attributable to the increase in minimum temperature. The annual mean precipitation also exhibits a significant increasing tendency. The precipitation amount in the most recent decade was greater than in any preceding decade since 1961. Seasonally, the greatest increase in temperature and precipitation appears in winter and in summer, respectively. Widespread significant changes in temperature-related extremes are consistent with warming, with decreases in cold extremes and increases in warm extremes. The warming of the coldest night is greater than that of the warmest day, and changes in cold and warm nights are more evident than for cold and warm days. Extreme precipitation and wet days exhibit an increasing trend, and the maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a tendency toward shorter duration. Multi-model ensemble mean projections indicate an overall continual increase in temperature and precipitation during the 21st century. Decreases in cold extremes, increases in warm extremes, intensification of extreme precipitation, increases in wet days, and decreases in consecutive dry days, are expected under both emissions scenarios, with larger changes corresponding to stronger radiative forcing.
2017, 34(3): 306-320.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-5254-4
Abstract:
The planetary boundary layer turbulence and moist convection parameterizations have been modified recently in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM; post-CMIP5, hereafter P5). In this study, single column model (SCM_P5) simulated cloud fractions (CFs), cloud liquid water paths (LWPs) and precipitation were compared with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) ground-based observations made during the period 2002-08. CMIP5 SCM simulations and GCM outputs over the ARM SGP region were also used in the comparison to identify whether the causes of cloud and precipitation biases resulted from either the physical parameterization or the dynamic scheme. The comparison showed that the CMIP5 SCM has difficulties in simulating the vertical structure and seasonal variation of low-level clouds. The new scheme implemented in the turbulence parameterization led to significantly improved cloud simulations in P5. It was found that the SCM is sensitive to the relaxation time scale. When the relaxation time increased from 3 to 24 h, SCM_P5-simulated CFs and LWPs showed a moderate increase (10%-20%) but precipitation increased significantly (56%), which agreed better with observations despite the less accurate atmospheric state. Annual averages among the GCM and SCM simulations were almost the same, but their respective seasonal variations were out of phase. This suggests that the same physical cloud parameterization can generate similar statistical results over a long time period, but different dynamics drive the differences in seasonal variations. This study can potentially provide guidance for the further development of the GISS model.
The planetary boundary layer turbulence and moist convection parameterizations have been modified recently in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM; post-CMIP5, hereafter P5). In this study, single column model (SCM_P5) simulated cloud fractions (CFs), cloud liquid water paths (LWPs) and precipitation were compared with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) ground-based observations made during the period 2002-08. CMIP5 SCM simulations and GCM outputs over the ARM SGP region were also used in the comparison to identify whether the causes of cloud and precipitation biases resulted from either the physical parameterization or the dynamic scheme. The comparison showed that the CMIP5 SCM has difficulties in simulating the vertical structure and seasonal variation of low-level clouds. The new scheme implemented in the turbulence parameterization led to significantly improved cloud simulations in P5. It was found that the SCM is sensitive to the relaxation time scale. When the relaxation time increased from 3 to 24 h, SCM_P5-simulated CFs and LWPs showed a moderate increase (10%-20%) but precipitation increased significantly (56%), which agreed better with observations despite the less accurate atmospheric state. Annual averages among the GCM and SCM simulations were almost the same, but their respective seasonal variations were out of phase. This suggests that the same physical cloud parameterization can generate similar statistical results over a long time period, but different dynamics drive the differences in seasonal variations. This study can potentially provide guidance for the further development of the GISS model.
2017, 34(3): 321-334.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6120-0
Abstract:
Using the hourly precipitation records of meteorological stations in Shanghai, covering a period of almost a century (1916-2014), the long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation in Shanghai on multiple spatial and temporal scales is analyzed, and the effects of urbanization on hourly rainstorms studied. Results show that: (1) Over the last century, extreme hourly precipitation events enhanced significantly. During the recent urbanization period from 1981 to 2014, the frequency of heavy precipitation increased significantly, with a distinct localized and abrupt characteristic. (2) The spatial distribution of long-term trends for the occurrence frequency and total precipitation intensity of hourly heavy precipitation in Shanghai shows a distinct urban rain-island feature; namely, heavy precipitation was increasingly focused in urban and suburban areas. Attribution analysis shows that urbanization in Shanghai contributed greatly to the increase in both frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in the city, thus leading to an increasing total precipitation amount of heavy rainfall events. In addition, the diurnal variation of rainfall intensity also shows distinctive urban-rural differences, especially during late afternoon and early nighttime in the city area. (3) Regional warming, with subsequent enhancement of water vapor content, convergence of moisture flux and atmospheric instability, provided favorable physical backgrounds for the formation of extreme precipitation. This accounts for the consistent increase in hourly heavy precipitation over the whole Shanghai area during recent times.
Using the hourly precipitation records of meteorological stations in Shanghai, covering a period of almost a century (1916-2014), the long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation in Shanghai on multiple spatial and temporal scales is analyzed, and the effects of urbanization on hourly rainstorms studied. Results show that: (1) Over the last century, extreme hourly precipitation events enhanced significantly. During the recent urbanization period from 1981 to 2014, the frequency of heavy precipitation increased significantly, with a distinct localized and abrupt characteristic. (2) The spatial distribution of long-term trends for the occurrence frequency and total precipitation intensity of hourly heavy precipitation in Shanghai shows a distinct urban rain-island feature; namely, heavy precipitation was increasingly focused in urban and suburban areas. Attribution analysis shows that urbanization in Shanghai contributed greatly to the increase in both frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in the city, thus leading to an increasing total precipitation amount of heavy rainfall events. In addition, the diurnal variation of rainfall intensity also shows distinctive urban-rural differences, especially during late afternoon and early nighttime in the city area. (3) Regional warming, with subsequent enhancement of water vapor content, convergence of moisture flux and atmospheric instability, provided favorable physical backgrounds for the formation of extreme precipitation. This accounts for the consistent increase in hourly heavy precipitation over the whole Shanghai area during recent times.
2017, 34(3): 335-346.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6102-2
Abstract:
In this study, we investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in India and its impact on agriculture during the summer season (April-September). In the analysis, we use Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) datasets between 1982 and 2012 at the six-monthly timescale. Based on the criterion SPEI <-1, we obtain a map of the number of occurrences of drought and find that the humid subtropical Upper Middle Gangetic Plain (UMGP) region is highly drought-prone, with an occurrence frequency of 40%-45%. This UMGP region contributes at least 18%-20% of India's annual cereal production. Not only the probability of drought, but the UMGP region has become increasingly drought-prone in recent decades. Moreover, cereal production in the UMGP region has experienced a gradual declining trend from 2000 onwards, which is consistent with the increase in drought-affected areas from 20%-25% to 50%-60%, before and after 2000, respectively. A higher correlation coefficient (-0.69) between the cereal production changes and drought-affected areas confirms that at least 50% of the agricultural (cereal) losses are associated with drought. While analyzing the individual impact of precipitation and surface temperature on SPEI at 6 month timescale [SPEI (6)] we find that, in the UMGP region, surface temperature plays the primary role in the lowering of the SPEI. The linkage is further confirmed by correlation analysis between SPEI (6) and surface temperature, which exhibits strong negative values in the UMGP region. Higher temperatures may have caused more evaporation and drying, which therefore increased the area affected by drought in recent decades.
In this study, we investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in India and its impact on agriculture during the summer season (April-September). In the analysis, we use Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) datasets between 1982 and 2012 at the six-monthly timescale. Based on the criterion SPEI <-1, we obtain a map of the number of occurrences of drought and find that the humid subtropical Upper Middle Gangetic Plain (UMGP) region is highly drought-prone, with an occurrence frequency of 40%-45%. This UMGP region contributes at least 18%-20% of India's annual cereal production. Not only the probability of drought, but the UMGP region has become increasingly drought-prone in recent decades. Moreover, cereal production in the UMGP region has experienced a gradual declining trend from 2000 onwards, which is consistent with the increase in drought-affected areas from 20%-25% to 50%-60%, before and after 2000, respectively. A higher correlation coefficient (-0.69) between the cereal production changes and drought-affected areas confirms that at least 50% of the agricultural (cereal) losses are associated with drought. While analyzing the individual impact of precipitation and surface temperature on SPEI at 6 month timescale [SPEI (6)] we find that, in the UMGP region, surface temperature plays the primary role in the lowering of the SPEI. The linkage is further confirmed by correlation analysis between SPEI (6) and surface temperature, which exhibits strong negative values in the UMGP region. Higher temperatures may have caused more evaporation and drying, which therefore increased the area affected by drought in recent decades.
2017, 34(3): 347-359.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6030-1
Abstract:
Using the data collected over the Southern Great Plains ARM site from 2006 to 2010, the surface Active Remote Sensing of Cloud (ARSCL) and CloudSat-CALIPSO satellite (CC) retrievals of total cloud and six specified cloud types [low, mid-low (ML), high-mid-low (HML), mid, high-mid (HM) and high] were compared in terms of cloud fraction (CF), cloud-base height (CBH), cloud-top height (CTH) and cloud thickness (CT), on different temporal scales, to identify their respective advantages and limitations. Good agreement between the two methods was exhibited in the total CF. However, large discrepancies were found between the cloud distributions of the two methods at a high (240-m) vertical grid spacing. Compared to the satellites, ARSCL retrievals detected more boundary layer clouds, while they underestimated high clouds. In terms of the six specific cloud types, more low- and mid-level clouds but less HML- and high-level clouds were detected by ARSCL than by CC. In contrast, the ARSCL retrievals of ML- and HM-level clouds agreed more closely with the estimations from the CC product. Lower CBHs tended to be reported by the surface data for low-, ML- and HML-level clouds; however, higher CTHs were often recorded by the satellite product for HML-, HM- and high-level clouds. The mean CTs for low- and ML-level cloud were similar between the two products; however, the mean CTs for HML-, mid-, HM- and high-level clouds from ARSCL were smaller than those from CC.
Using the data collected over the Southern Great Plains ARM site from 2006 to 2010, the surface Active Remote Sensing of Cloud (ARSCL) and CloudSat-CALIPSO satellite (CC) retrievals of total cloud and six specified cloud types [low, mid-low (ML), high-mid-low (HML), mid, high-mid (HM) and high] were compared in terms of cloud fraction (CF), cloud-base height (CBH), cloud-top height (CTH) and cloud thickness (CT), on different temporal scales, to identify their respective advantages and limitations. Good agreement between the two methods was exhibited in the total CF. However, large discrepancies were found between the cloud distributions of the two methods at a high (240-m) vertical grid spacing. Compared to the satellites, ARSCL retrievals detected more boundary layer clouds, while they underestimated high clouds. In terms of the six specific cloud types, more low- and mid-level clouds but less HML- and high-level clouds were detected by ARSCL than by CC. In contrast, the ARSCL retrievals of ML- and HM-level clouds agreed more closely with the estimations from the CC product. Lower CBHs tended to be reported by the surface data for low-, ML- and HML-level clouds; however, higher CTHs were often recorded by the satellite product for HML-, HM- and high-level clouds. The mean CTs for low- and ML-level cloud were similar between the two products; however, the mean CTs for HML-, mid-, HM- and high-level clouds from ARSCL were smaller than those from CC.
2017, 34(3): 360-370.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6016-z
Abstract:
Previous studies suggest that the atmospheric precursor of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) might trigger a quadrapole sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the South Pacific and subsequently influence the following ENSO. Such a quadrapole SSTA is referred to as the South Pacific quadrapole (SPQ). The present study investigated the relationships between the atmospheric precursor signal of ENSO and leading modes of atmospheric variability in the extratropical SH [including the SH annular mode (SAM), the first Pacific-South America (PSA1) mode, and the second Pacific-South America (PSA2) mode]. The results showed that the atmospheric precursor signal in the extratropical SH basically exhibits a barotropic wavenumber-3 structure over the South Pacific and is significantly correlated with the SAM and the PSA2 mode during austral summer. Nevertheless, only the PSA2 mode was found to be a precursor for the following ENSO. It leads the SPQ-like SSTA by around one month, while the SAM and the PSA1 mode do not show any obvious linkage with either ENSO or the SPQ. This suggests that the PSA2 mode may provide a bridge between the preceding circulation anomalies over the extratropical SH and the following ENSO through the SPQ-like SSTA.
Previous studies suggest that the atmospheric precursor of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) might trigger a quadrapole sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the South Pacific and subsequently influence the following ENSO. Such a quadrapole SSTA is referred to as the South Pacific quadrapole (SPQ). The present study investigated the relationships between the atmospheric precursor signal of ENSO and leading modes of atmospheric variability in the extratropical SH [including the SH annular mode (SAM), the first Pacific-South America (PSA1) mode, and the second Pacific-South America (PSA2) mode]. The results showed that the atmospheric precursor signal in the extratropical SH basically exhibits a barotropic wavenumber-3 structure over the South Pacific and is significantly correlated with the SAM and the PSA2 mode during austral summer. Nevertheless, only the PSA2 mode was found to be a precursor for the following ENSO. It leads the SPQ-like SSTA by around one month, while the SAM and the PSA1 mode do not show any obvious linkage with either ENSO or the SPQ. This suggests that the PSA2 mode may provide a bridge between the preceding circulation anomalies over the extratropical SH and the following ENSO through the SPQ-like SSTA.
2017, 34(3): 371-382.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6109-8
Abstract:
The satellite-derived wind from cloud and moisture features of geostationary satellites is an important data source for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These datasets and global positioning system radio occultation (GPSRO) satellite radiances are assimilated in the four-dimensional variational atmospheric data assimilation system of the UKMO Unified Model in India. This study focuses on the importance of these data in the NWP system and their impact on short-term 24-h forecasts. The quality of the wind observations is compared to the short-range forecast from the model background. The observation increments (observation minus background) are computed as the satellite-derived wind minus the model forecast with a 6-h lead time. The results show the model background has a large easterly wind component compared to satellite observations. The importance of each observation in the analysis is studied using an adjoint-based forecast sensitivity to observation method. The results show that at least around 50% of all types of satellite observations are beneficial. In terms of individual contribution, METEOSAT-7 shows a higher percentage of impact (nearly 50%), as compared to GEOS, MTSAT-2 and METEOSAT-10, all of which have a less than 25% impact. In addition, the impact of GPSRO, infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) and atmospheric infrared sounder (AIRS) data is calculated. The GPSRO observations have beneficial impacts up to 50 km. Over the Southern Hemisphere, the high spectral radiances from IASI and AIRS show a greater impact than over the Northern Hemisphere. The results in this study can be used for further improvements in the use of new and existing satellite observations.
The satellite-derived wind from cloud and moisture features of geostationary satellites is an important data source for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These datasets and global positioning system radio occultation (GPSRO) satellite radiances are assimilated in the four-dimensional variational atmospheric data assimilation system of the UKMO Unified Model in India. This study focuses on the importance of these data in the NWP system and their impact on short-term 24-h forecasts. The quality of the wind observations is compared to the short-range forecast from the model background. The observation increments (observation minus background) are computed as the satellite-derived wind minus the model forecast with a 6-h lead time. The results show the model background has a large easterly wind component compared to satellite observations. The importance of each observation in the analysis is studied using an adjoint-based forecast sensitivity to observation method. The results show that at least around 50% of all types of satellite observations are beneficial. In terms of individual contribution, METEOSAT-7 shows a higher percentage of impact (nearly 50%), as compared to GEOS, MTSAT-2 and METEOSAT-10, all of which have a less than 25% impact. In addition, the impact of GPSRO, infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) and atmospheric infrared sounder (AIRS) data is calculated. The GPSRO observations have beneficial impacts up to 50 km. Over the Southern Hemisphere, the high spectral radiances from IASI and AIRS show a greater impact than over the Northern Hemisphere. The results in this study can be used for further improvements in the use of new and existing satellite observations.
2017, 34(3): 383-396.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6041-y
Abstract:
Sea level rise has become an important issue in global climate change studies. This study investigates trends in sea level records, particularly extreme records, in the Pearl River Estuary, using measurements from two tide gauge stations in Macau and Hong Kong. Extremes in the original sea level records (daily higher high water heights) and in tidal residuals with and without the 18.6-year nodal modulation are investigated separately. Thresholds for defining extreme sea levels are calibrated based on extreme value theory. Extreme events are then modeled by peaks-over-threshold models. The model applied to extremes in original sea level records does not include modeling of their durations, while a geometric distribution is added to model the duration of extremes in tidal residuals. Realistic modeling results are recommended in all stationary models. Parametric trends of extreme sea level records are then introduced to nonstationary models through a generalized linear model framework. The result shows that, in recent decades, since the 1960s, no significant trends can be found in any type of extreme at any station, which may be related to a reduction in the influence of tropical cyclones in the region. For the longer-term record since the 1920s at Macau, a regime shift of tidal amplitudes around the 1970s may partially explain the diverse trend of extremes in original sea level records and tidal residuals.
Sea level rise has become an important issue in global climate change studies. This study investigates trends in sea level records, particularly extreme records, in the Pearl River Estuary, using measurements from two tide gauge stations in Macau and Hong Kong. Extremes in the original sea level records (daily higher high water heights) and in tidal residuals with and without the 18.6-year nodal modulation are investigated separately. Thresholds for defining extreme sea levels are calibrated based on extreme value theory. Extreme events are then modeled by peaks-over-threshold models. The model applied to extremes in original sea level records does not include modeling of their durations, while a geometric distribution is added to model the duration of extremes in tidal residuals. Realistic modeling results are recommended in all stationary models. Parametric trends of extreme sea level records are then introduced to nonstationary models through a generalized linear model framework. The result shows that, in recent decades, since the 1960s, no significant trends can be found in any type of extreme at any station, which may be related to a reduction in the influence of tropical cyclones in the region. For the longer-term record since the 1920s at Macau, a regime shift of tidal amplitudes around the 1970s may partially explain the diverse trend of extremes in original sea level records and tidal residuals.
2017, 34(3): 397-410.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6159-y
Abstract:
By applying a global high-resolution (0.1°) OGCM, the influence of the island chains in the Luzon Strait (LS) on the Kuroshio intrusion is studied systematically. The island chains in the LS are separated into three parts: the south island chain, the middle and north island chain, and Babuyan Island. One control and three sensitivity experiments are conducted by adding these three parts of the topography gradually. From comparisons of the circulation, temperature, and salinity structures, it is found that the south island chain decreases the westward bending of the main Kuroshio path, the middle and north island chain increases the westward bending, and Babuyan Island also increases the westward bending. These results are extremely clear in winter. Dynamic diagnoses suggest that the westward bending increases with an increase in the incidence angle of the Kuroshio and an increase in the Kuroshio east branch transport. Moreover, the middle and north island chain can split the Kuroshio into two parts, the Kuroshio west and east branches, which can be seen clearly in the satellite altimeter maps.
By applying a global high-resolution (0.1°) OGCM, the influence of the island chains in the Luzon Strait (LS) on the Kuroshio intrusion is studied systematically. The island chains in the LS are separated into three parts: the south island chain, the middle and north island chain, and Babuyan Island. One control and three sensitivity experiments are conducted by adding these three parts of the topography gradually. From comparisons of the circulation, temperature, and salinity structures, it is found that the south island chain decreases the westward bending of the main Kuroshio path, the middle and north island chain increases the westward bending, and Babuyan Island also increases the westward bending. These results are extremely clear in winter. Dynamic diagnoses suggest that the westward bending increases with an increase in the incidence angle of the Kuroshio and an increase in the Kuroshio east branch transport. Moreover, the middle and north island chain can split the Kuroshio into two parts, the Kuroshio west and east branches, which can be seen clearly in the satellite altimeter maps.
2017, 34(3): 411-427.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6097-8
Abstract:
An Eulerian flux-form advection scheme, called the Two-step Shape-Preserving Advection Scheme (TSPAS), was generalized and implemented on a spherical icosahedral hexagonal grid (also referred to as a geodesic grid) to solve the transport equation. The C grid discretization was used for the spatial discretization. To implement TSPAS on an unstructured grid, the original finite-difference scheme was further generalized. The two-step integration utilizes a combination of two separate schemes (a low-order monotone scheme and a high-order scheme that typically cannot ensure monotonicity) to calculate the fluxes at the cell walls (one scheme corresponds to one cell wall). The choice between these two schemes for each edge depends on a pre-updated scalar value using slightly increased fluxes. After the determination of an appropriate scheme, the final integration at a target cell is achieved by summing the fluxes that are computed by the different schemes. The conservative and shape-preserving properties of the generalized scheme are demonstrated. Numerical experiments are conducted at several horizontal resolutions. TSPAS is compared with the Flux Corrected Transport (FCT) approach to demonstrate the differences between the two methods, and several transport tests are performed to examine the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the two schemes.
An Eulerian flux-form advection scheme, called the Two-step Shape-Preserving Advection Scheme (TSPAS), was generalized and implemented on a spherical icosahedral hexagonal grid (also referred to as a geodesic grid) to solve the transport equation. The C grid discretization was used for the spatial discretization. To implement TSPAS on an unstructured grid, the original finite-difference scheme was further generalized. The two-step integration utilizes a combination of two separate schemes (a low-order monotone scheme and a high-order scheme that typically cannot ensure monotonicity) to calculate the fluxes at the cell walls (one scheme corresponds to one cell wall). The choice between these two schemes for each edge depends on a pre-updated scalar value using slightly increased fluxes. After the determination of an appropriate scheme, the final integration at a target cell is achieved by summing the fluxes that are computed by the different schemes. The conservative and shape-preserving properties of the generalized scheme are demonstrated. Numerical experiments are conducted at several horizontal resolutions. TSPAS is compared with the Flux Corrected Transport (FCT) approach to demonstrate the differences between the two methods, and several transport tests are performed to examine the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the two schemes.
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